Contents
Introduction
This Module provides the requirements and procedures for the quantification of net carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) removal from the atmosphere via improvements to soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in grazing lands. This Module sits under the Improved Soil Management Protocol and must be read in conjunction with it.
Grasslands encompass nearly 2 billion hectares of global grazing land and sequester approximately 20% of the world’s terrestrial carbon stocks1. Recent FAO assessments indicate a global sequestration potential of 0.3 tonnes of Carbon per hectare annually, though this varies significantly by soil type and climatic conditions1. Grazing lands are characterized by high below-ground biomass; root-derived carbon is incorporated into SOC more efficiently than above-ground litter, as it is deposited directly into the soil matrix where it is better protected from oxidation2. While intensive management, specifically heavy grazing, is a documented driver of soil organic carbon (SOC) depletion3, regenerative strategies offer a pathway for restoration although these must be balanced alongside other emissions from livestock systems including methane and nitrous oxide4,5.
This Module is process-agnostic with respect to the specific management practices employed. Eligible project activities encompass any practice or combination of practices that results in a demonstrable net increase in SOC stocks against a counterfactual baseline, provided all eligibility and safeguarding requirements set out in this Module and the parent Protocol are met. This approach reflects the wide diversity of grazing systems, soil types, and climatic conditions encountered globally, and recognizes that effective SOC enhancement strategies will vary substantially by region and context. Using common terminology for SOC-enhancing practices, examples of such eligible activities include, but are not limited to:
- Rotational or Adaptive Grazing: The movement of livestock between two or more areas of grazing lands following a schedule or based on observations of vegetation, allowing periods of vegetation recovery and growth between grazing periods.
- Improved forage species: The seeding of new forage species such as N-fixing legumes or deep seeding grasses to increase biomass production.
- Water management: The use of irrigation to establish vegetation on degraded soils or extend the growing season to reduce periods of bare soil.
- Brush burning or mulching: The strategic management of woody encroachment through prescribed fire or mechanical means to restore grassland health, stimulate root biomass, and maintain high-quality forage for livestock.
In addition to climate mitigation, improvements to SOC in grazing lands can provide environmental and social co-benefits, including enhanced soil water retention and drought resilience, reduced dependency on synthetic fertilizers, mitigation of erosion and nutrient runoff into waterways, and support for soil biodiversity 6,7,8,9. Carbon finance presents a meaningful opportunity to overcome the adoption barriers, including implementation costs, agronomic support, and the absence of financial incentives, that have historically constrained farmer uptake of SOC-enhancing practices.
Project Proponents must meet all the requirements set out in the Improved Soil Management Protocol and relevant Modules, as well as the requirements set out in the Module. Where this Module contains requirements that duplicate or conflict with those in other Modules, this Module takes precedence.
Throughout this Module, the use of “must” indicates a requirement, whereas “should” indicates a recommendation.
Sources and Reference Standards & Methodologies
This Module relies on and is intended to be compliant with the following Standards and Protocols:
- The Isometric Standard
- Improved Soil Management Protocol v1.0, Isometric
- ISO 14064-2: 2019 — Greenhouse Gases — Part 2: Specification with guidance at the project level for quantification, monitoring, and reporting of greenhouse gas emission reductions or removal enhancements
Additional reference standards that inform the requirements of this Module include:
- ISO 14064-3: 2019 — Greenhouse Gases — Part 3: Specification with guidance for the verification and validation of greenhouse gas statements
- ISO 14040: 2006 — Environmental Management — Lifecycle Assessment — Principles & Framework
- ISO 14044: 2006 — Environmental Management — Lifecycle Assessment — Requirements & Guidelines
Additional principles that were considered in the development of this Module include:
- The Core Carbon Principles of The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market, v1.1, ICVCM, 2024
- Criteria for High-Quality Carbon Dioxide Removal, Carbon Direct & Microsoft, 2025
Future Versions
This Module was developed based on the current state of the art and publicly available science regarding grazing lands soil organic carbon dynamics and land management interventions. This Module aims to be scientifically stringent and robust. We recognize that some requirements may exceed the status quo in the voluntary carbon market and that there are numerous opportunities to improve the rigor of this Module as new approaches and techniques emerge.
Additionally, this Module will be reviewed when there is an update to published scientific literature, government policies, or legal requirements which would affect net CO₂e removal quantification or the monitoring guidelines outlined in this Module, or at a minimum of every 2 years.
Applicability
In addition to the requirements outlined in the Improved Soil Management Protocol, Projects are subject to the following applicability requirements, which must be demonstrated in the Project Design Document.
Eligible Land
This Module applies to land that is managed under a grazing land management framework at the time of project initiation, or that has been managed under such a framework within the 5 years immediately prior to project initiation. Land that is grazed for the first time at project initiation, with no prior grazing land use, is not eligible; the Module targets improved management of established grazing systems.
Land that is an established grazing system currently destocked or under reduced stocking, for example due to drought, remains eligible beyond the 5-year window, provided the historical grazing framework is evidenced under this Section, the land has not been converted to a non-grazing land use, and it has not transitioned to a native ecosystem type excluded under Section 4.1.1. Reversion toward natural grassland or open rangeland does not affect eligibility, consistent with Section 4.1.1.
A grazing land management framework is land that is used for grazing livestock on a permanent or rotational basis, together with associated grasslands used for feed production. For the purposes of this Module, livestock means herbivores managed under a grazing land management framework. Livestock may include traditional domesticated species (e.g., cattle, sheep, goats) and non-traditional herbivores, including non-native or semi-wild species , provided the Project Proponent demonstrates, in accordance with the safeguarding requirements of Section 6.1, that their grazing has no negative consequences for native habitat. Grazing by genuinely wild, unmanaged wildlife does not, by itself, constitute a grazing land management framework.
Grazing on natural (non-converted) grasslands, and open rangeland systems is within the scope of this Module. The native-ecosystem provisions of Section 4.1.1 concern the conversion of native ecosystems, not the presence of natural vegetation under grazing; land that is, and has remained, natural rangeland under an established grazing framework is eligible provided no conversion has occurred.
Evidence of a grazing land management framework must be provided in the Project Design Document. Acceptable evidence, in order of preference, includes: stocking, livestock-sale, and grazing-management records; property grazing management plans; and attestations or affidavits from landowners, managers, or knowledgeable third parties (e.g. neighboring operators or local agricultural authorities), corroborated by remote sensing or regional land-use records where available. A recent change of ownership does not remove the requirement to evidence the prior grazing framework; where a Project Proponent cannot establish it by any of these means, the land is not eligible.
Arable croplands, including those in which fodder crops are grown in rotation, are excluded from this Module.
Land Use Exclusions
Project Proponents must not include any of the following land types within The Project Boundary:
Land that held native ecosystem cover at any point within the 10 years prior to project initiation including native grassland, native forest, wetlands (terrestrial or tidal, including peatlands, marshes, and mangroves), or other high-conservation-value habitat. Project Proponents must provide evidence that land-use change from native ecosystem cover did not occur within this lookback period, using remote sensing imagery, land cover classification data, or equivalent authoritative sources.
-
Land that was converted from forest, woodland, or shrubland to cropland within the 10 years prior to project initiation, unless The Project Proponent can demonstrate that the conversion was the result of a documented natural disaster or is consistent with non-industrial common practice in the region unrelated to carbon market activities or incentives. Evidence must include historical land ownership records, remote sensing data, land manager attestations, or traditional ecological knowledge documentation (e.g., documented oral histories or elder testimony, participatory community mapping of historical land use, or records of customary or seasonal land-management practices, provided it is gathered through structured methods and is verifiable and attributable to identified knowledge holders).
-
Land classified as wetland, peatland, or organic soil (histosol), as evidenced by national or regional soil maps, land cover classification, or site-specific soil survey data. This exclusion applies regardless of whether the land is currently under grazing land management.
-
Land under active litigation or dispute regarding ownership, tenure, or use rights, unless the dispute has been resolved prior to project validation, or unless all of the following are demonstrated to Isometric's satisfaction and verified by the VVB: (i) all parties to the dispute consent in writing to the land's enrolment; (ii) the Project Proponent demonstrates that the project will not affect the resolution of the dispute and that the dispute will not affect the project's activities, carbon outcomes, or its ability to maintain the durability commitment for the Project Commitment Period, regardless of the dispute's outcome; and (iii) sufficient evidence supports both conditions. Where a dispute arising during the Project Commitment Period cannot satisfy these conditions and materially threatens the durability commitment or the rights of affected parties, the affected area is treated in accordance with the withdrawal and reversal provisions of this Module.
Definitions for Native Ecosystems and High Conservation Value Land
- Native forest — Forest meeting the FAO forest definition (land spanning more than 0.5 ha with trees higher than 5 m and canopy cover of more than 10%, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ, excluding land predominantly under agricultural or urban use) that is dominated by tree species indigenous to the region and has established and regenerated through natural processes. Native forest includes primary and naturally regenerating forest and excludes planted or plantation forest. Delineation must be supported by remote sensing imagery and/or land-cover classification against these thresholds.
- Native grassland — A grassland dominated by grass and herbaceous species indigenous to the region that has formed and persisted through natural processes, distinct from sown, "improved," or cultivated pasture composed of introduced forage species, and distinct from grassland created by clearing forest. For delineation, native grassland is characterised by a dominance (≥ 50%) of indigenous, non-sown species cover and the absence of documented cultivation or sowing, evidenced by land-cover classification and a remote-sensing time series.
- Native wetland — A wetland whose hydrology, soils, and biological communities have formed and persisted through natural processes, and whose vegetation is dominated by water-adapted species indigenous to the region.
- High-conservation-value habitat — Habitat holding one or more of the six High Conservation Values as defined by the HCV framework: HCV1 (concentrations of biological diversity, including endemic, rare, threatened or endangered species); HCV2 (large landscape-level ecosystems and mosaics); HCV3 (rare, threatened or endangered ecosystems, habitats or refugia); HCV4 (critical ecosystem services, including watershed protection and erosion control); HCV5 (sites and resources fundamental to the basic needs of local communities or Indigenous peoples); and HCV6 (sites and resources of cultural, archaeological or historical significance). For the exclusions above, conversion of an HCV3 ecosystem is treated as conversion of native ecosystem cover; the presence of any HCV1–6 triggers the no-harm and enhancement requirement rather than exclusion.
High Conservation Values present without conversion. Where high-conservation-value habitat is present within the Project Area but no conversion of native ecosystem cover has occurred within the lookback period, the land is not excluded under this Section by reason of that habitat alone. In such cases the Project Proponent must demonstrate, in accordance with the safeguarding requirements of Section 6.1, that project activities do not harm the High Conservation Values present and, where feasible, enhance them.
Support for Biodiversity and Community Livelihoods
Following requirements under the Protocol, Project Proponents should implement practices which can provide additional ecological benefits in addition to increasing carbon sequestration. SOC-enhancing land management practices, including forage diversification, rotational grazing, and brush management are encouraged where they deliver co-benefits for soil health, water quality, and habitat connectivity in addition to their primary carbon benefit.
The Project must support the livelihoods of farmers and land users enrolled in or affected by project activities. Support must be documented in The Project Design Document. See Section 6.6.1.3 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol for requirements on revenue sharing.
Other Requirements
The Project must not result in net disturbance of existing soil carbon pools beyond that occurring in the baseline scenario.
The Project's primary commitment is to maintain cumulative SOC stocks at or above the level corresponding to credits or certificates previously issued, quantified through the monitoring framework set out in Section 9. Because the Module is practice-agnostic, Project Proponents may adapt the specific practices used over time, provided the outcome-based commitment continues to hold.
The Project must provide a minimum of 40 years of SOC storage in The project area, as defined by the length of The Project Commitment Period (see Section 5.1)
-
The primary commitment is to the maintenance of cumulative SOC stocks at or above the level corresponding to Credits previously issued, as quantified through the monitoring framework set out in Section 9.
-
Project Proponents may adapt the specific land management practices implemented during The Project Commitment Period, provided that any such adaptation: (i) does not breach any other applicability requirement of this Module or the parent Protocol; (ii) is documented in advance in the Monitoring Report and approved at the next verification; and (iii) is accompanied by evidence, through the Section 9 framework, that the 30th-percentile estimate of cumulative SOC stocks (calculated in accordance with Section 9.1.1) remains at or above the level corresponding to Credits previously issued. Reversion to baseline land management practices, or any practice change for which the 30th-percentile cumulative SOC stock estimate falls below the level corresponding to Credits previously issued, will be treated as a reversal in accordance with the Isometric Standard.
-
Independently of the outcome-based test set out above, Project Proponents must notify Isometric of any material change to the land management practices implemented within The Project Boundary as soon as practicable, and in any event no later than the next Monitoring Report.
- A change is material where it alters the practices identified in The Project Design Document as responsible for generating the SOC increase, or where it could reasonably be expected to affect SOC stocks within The Project Area. Failure to notify a material practice change will be treated as a non-conformance and may result in the suspension of crediting until the change has been assessed and verified.
-
The Project Proponent must provide evidence that the land management practices required to maintain SOC stocks can be sustained throughout The Project Commitment Period. This includes evidence of secure land tenure or equivalent long-term land access arrangements for The Project area.
-
Where The Project involves smallholder farmers or customary land users, land tenure arrangements must be consistent with the farmer and land user rights requirements of Section 6.6 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol.
-
The Project must not transform the land use to the extent that it is expected to change or systematically reduce Pre-Project Productivity. This includes converting grazing land or pasture historically used for livestock production to a different land use, replacing the historical forage or livestock system with a materially different one that reduces output (e.g., destocking below historical stocking rates or abandoning grazing), introducing extended rest or exclusion periods that were not otherwise part of the management system, or planting trees. The Project must seek to maintain or enhance agricultural productivity, including livestock and forage productivity, on project sites.
-
Planting trees and comparable land-use transformations are scoped under the Isometric Agroforestry and Reforestation Protocols.
Project Timelines
Project Commitment Period
The Project Commitment Period encompasses the Crediting Period and any Ongoing Monitoring Period commitments following the end of Crediting.
The Project Commitment Period must be a minimum of 40 years and no longer than 100 years. The length of the Project Commitment Period must be set at project initiation.
For grouped projects where new areas are added to The Project over time, The Project Timeline may be staggered across Project areas to reflect different initiation times of Project activities.
Crediting Period
-
Definition. The full Crediting Period is the interval between project initiation (first intervention activity on an individual site associated with The Project) and the end of the last Reporting Period. The Crediting Period is made up of successive Reporting Periods.
-
Duration. The total Crediting Period (including renewals) can be no longer than the Project Commitment Period set at project initiation.
-
Issuance. Credit issuances occur throughout the Crediting Period. Credits are issued upon Verification of a Reporting Period. Credits issued at each verification event represent the cumulative net CO₂e removal from project initiation to the end of the current Reporting Period, less all credits previously issued under The Project.
-
Renewal. The Crediting Period may be renewed up to the duration of The Project Commitment Period.
-
Considerations for Grouped Projects. For grouped projects composed of multiple discrete areas, the individual Crediting Periods may be staggered across individual sites to reflect the different timings of project activity initiation within the sites.
Reporting Period
-
Definition. The Reporting Period is the interval of time over which removals are assessed and crediting calculations are updated. The first Reporting Period starts at the beginning of the Crediting Period. Subsequent Reporting Periods begin at the end of the previous Reporting Period.
-
Duration. The minimum duration of a Reporting Period is one year. The maximum duration of a Reporting Period is five years. Project Proponents may request an alternative length of the Reporting Period provided they submit suitable justification for the deviation (e.g., evidence of carbon stock impacts of intervention anticipated to take longer during establishment; matching relevant cultivation cycles).
-
Verification. Verification of project activities by a third-party Verification and Validation Body (VVB) is conducted for each Reporting Period (see Section 7.2 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol).
-
Last Reporting Period. Project Proponents must indicate the last Reporting Period to be submitted for Verification. Failure to initiate a Verification within 5 years of the previous Reporting Period or request an extension will conclude the Crediting Period.
Ongoing Monitoring Period
-
Definition. The Ongoing Monitoring Period is an optional interval between the end of The Crediting Period through the end of The Project Commitment Period. An Ongoing Monitoring Period is only required if The Crediting Period is less than the length of the Project Commitment Period set at project initiation (minimum 40 years). This may be the case if an enrolled property chooses not to renew their contract to the full Project Commitment Period Length.
-
Duration. If the Crediting Period is less than The Project Commitment Period, the Ongoing Monitoring Period must encompass the length of time from the end of the Crediting Period to the end of the Project Commitment Period.
-
Monitoring. Monitoring for Reversals is the responsibility of The Project Proponent and must follow the same requirements for the measure re-measure approach used for quantification of (Section 9.1.2). If monitoring is not possible (e.g., do not have access to land), the area is considered to experience a full Reversal.
Post-Project Commitment Period
- Definition. The indefinite period of time after the Project Commitment Period has ended.
- Project Proponents must provide details of how The Project design and activities will encourage long-term maintenance and sustainability of soil carbon stocks after The Project Commitment Period to prevent Reversals after The Project ends.
Example Project Timelines
Project A is a grazing lands management project consisting of multiple properties. It sets a Project Commitment Period of 40 years, with an initial Crediting Period of 20 years for all enrolled properties. At the end of the initial Crediting Period, most of the properties renew their enrollment for another 20 years and continue to accumulate Credits for the remainder of the Project Commitment Period. The remaining properties which did not renew their enrollment enter an Ongoing Monitoring Period to monitor for Reversals for the remaining 20 years of the Project Commitment Period. The Project Proponent is responsible for quantification and monitoring through all of the Project Area for the full duration of the Project Commitment Period, and the reported activities are verified by a Validation and Verification Body (VVB). All Credits from Project A have a durability of 20 years, equivalent to half of the 40 year Project Commitment Period.
Project B is a soil carbon project which sets a Project Commitment Period of 60 years, which fully consists of the Crediting Period. All Credits from Project B have a durability of 30 years, equivalent to half the 60 year Project Commitment Period.
Tracking Enrolled Areas
Where new areas are added to a grouped Project over time, the Project Proponent must maintain a complete and current record of all enrolled areas sufficient for Isometric and the VVB to track the project area and each area's Project Timeline over the life of the Project. At minimum, the Proponent must:
-
Maintain a spatial enrollment register
- Georeferenced boundaries for every enrolled area, each assigned a unique and persistent identifier, uploaded to Certify at the point of enrollment and maintained thereafter;
-
Record initiation dates and timelines per area
- The initiation date of each enrolled area, together with its resulting Project Commitment Period, Crediting Period, and Reporting Period schedule, so that staggered timelines are tracked individually rather than at the Project level only;
-
Establish an area-specific baseline
- A baseline determined for each new area as at its own initiation, in accordance with the baseline requirements of this Module, so that removals are credited against the correct counterfactual;
-
Prevent overlap and double counting
- A demonstration at each Verification that enrolled areas do not overlap spatially and are not enrolled in any other project, with spatial changes to the register version-controlled and auditable; and
-
Evidence tenure per area
- Evidence of secure land tenure or equivalent long-term land access for each enrolled area, valid for the duration of that area's Project Commitment Period.
Enrollment data must be made available to the VVB at each Verification, and any additions or changes since the previous Reporting Period must be clearly identified.
Durability
The Durability of Credits is set to one half the length of The Project Commitment Period.
The Project Commitment Period must be set at the time of PDD submission. If the initial Crediting Period is less than The Project Commitment Period, The Crediting Period may be extended up to the duration of The Project Commitment Period. If the initial Crediting Period is not extended, the remainder of The Project Commitment Period must consist of an Ongoing Monitoring Period. For grouped projects, The Project Commitment Period must be the same duration for all areas, but Crediting Period and Ongoing Monitoring Period duration may vary across individual areas to reflect differences in land tenure.
Grazing Lands Management Activities
Project interventions involve deliberate changes to grazing lands management practices that may affect local ecosystems, livestock, communities, and pastoral land users beyond the direct project benefit. Project Proponents must identify and assess the environmental and social risks associated with all implemented land management practice changes in adherence with the requirements laid out within the Improved Soil Management Protocol. The following risks are specific to grazing lands management activities and must be addressed in the Project Design Document:
- Food security and pastoral productivity
- Project Proponents must demonstrate that implemented practice changes do not compromise the productive output of project land (e.g., liveweight gain, milk yield, off-take, fibre production) or the food security of communities dependent on it.
- Where practice changes involve reductions in stocking rate, lengthening of rest periods, exclusion of livestock from defined areas, or shifts in herd composition or species mix, the Project Proponent must provide evidence that animal productivity is not materially reduced in a manner that adversely affects local food systems, household nutrition, or pastoral livelihoods.
- Inputs, amendments, and supplements
- Project Proponents applying soil amendments (e.g., organic amendments, compost, or other soil inputs), pasture seed mixes, mineral supplements, or veterinary chemicals as part of project activities must assess the risk of soil and water contamination, harm to non-target soil biota (e.g., dung beetles, earthworms),.
- Risk assessments must consider the composition of all applied inputs, including potential contaminants, the cumulative effect of repeated applications over the project lifetime, and the ecotoxicity of any veterinary residues excreted to pasture.
- Where inputs are subject to regulation (including veterinary medicines regulation), this must be evidenced via demonstration of adherence to all relevant regulations.
- Soil health and land degradation
- Project Proponents must demonstrate that implemented practice changes do not cause net soil degradation, including compaction, pugging or poaching, erosion, salinization, or acidification, relative to the baseline scenario.
- Monitoring plans must include indicators of soil health beyond SOC stocks where degradation risks are identified, with particular attention to bare-ground extent, livestock-trail formation, and soil structure under hoof action.
- Erosion and riparian protection
- Project Proponents must assess the risk of soil erosion arising from or exacerbated by project activities, including stocking density, livestock-trail formation, watering-point pressure, and livestock access to watercourses.
- Where erosion risk is identified, Project Proponents must implement and document appropriate erosion control measures. These may include, but are not limited to:
- The maintenance of permanent vegetative ground cover through stocking-rate management, rotational grazing, or rest periods
- The exclusion or controlled access of livestock from streambanks, riparian zones, and wetlands using fencing or herding
- The relocation or hardening of watering points and stock camps to prevent localised degradation
- The establishment of vegetated buffer strips along watercourses
- The avoidance of grazing during high-risk periods such as prolonged wet conditions or drought.
- Erosion and riparian protection measures must be documented in the Project Monitoring Plan.
- Pastoralist, smallholder, and land user rights
- Where project activities are implemented on land managed by pastoralists, smallholder herders, tenants, or customary land users — including land subject to communal tenure, seasonal access rights, or transhumant use — Project Proponents must ensure that participation is fully voluntary, that benefit-sharing arrangements are documented and equitable, and that land users retain the right to withdraw from the project without penalty.
- Project activities must not restrict the seasonal mobility, customary grazing routes, or established access rights of mobile pastoralists or neighbouring users, except where such restriction has been agreed through documented free, prior and informed consent of all affected groups.
- Involuntary changes to land management practices are not permitted under this Protocol.
- Water use and access
- Where practice changes affect livestock water demand, watering-point placement, or fencing of watercourses, Project Proponents must assess impacts on local water availability and access, including access to clean water for surrounding communities, wildlife, and existing water-intensive operations in the project area.
- Animal welfare
- Practice changes that alter stocking density, rest periods, supplementary feeding regimes, shade and shelter availability, or herd structure must not compromise the welfare of livestock on the project area.
- The Project Monitoring Plan must reference applicable national or internationally recognised animal welfare standards (e.g., WOAH Terrestrial Animal Health Code) against which project activities will be assessed.
- Biodiversity and wildlife interactions
- Project Proponents must assess the impact of fencing, water-point relocation, and grazing-pattern changes on the movement, habitat connectivity, and population dynamics of native wildlife.
- Where project activities are expected to alter predator–livestock conflict patterns, the Project Proponent must document non-lethal mitigation measures to be implemented, consistent with the safeguarding requirements of the Improved Soil Management Protocol.
- Enteric emissions and herd dynamics
- Where practice changes affect total animal-days, stocking rate, or herd composition, the Project Proponent must consider whether project-induced changes in enteric methane emissions are appropriately captured under the system boundary and leakage requirements of this Module.
- Project Proponents must not pursue net SOC gains via management changes whose enteric emission consequences are excluded from quantification.
Demonstrating adequate management of risks
For each risk identified in Section 6.1, it is not sufficient for the Project Proponent to assert that the risk has been considered. The Project Design Document must, for every material risk:
- Quantify a baseline
- Establish a measurable pre-project baseline for the relevant indicator(s), using site data or, where unavailable, regionally representative reference values;
- Define measurable indicators
- Specify the objective, monitorable indicator(s) by which the risk will be tracked, rather than qualitative description alone;
- State a performance threshold
- Commit to a defined threshold or performance standard that constitutes an acceptable outcome, referencing an applicable national or internationally recognized standard where one exists;
- Commit to monitoring
- Set out the monitoring method and frequency by which the indicator will be measured against the threshold over the Project lifetime; and
- Define a corrective-action trigger
- Specify the remedial action, and the point at which it is triggered, should an indicator breach its threshold.
Where a threshold is breached and not remediated within the timeframe set out in the Project Monitoring Plan, the affected practice change may not be relied upon for crediting until the indicator is restored to its threshold. All indicators, thresholds, and monitoring results are subject to verification by the VVB. Certain risks in Section 6.1, including pastoralist and land user rights, and the treatment of enteric emissions, are governed by absolute requirements rather than thresholds, and those requirements apply in full irrespective of this subsection.
Illustrative indicators and thresholds. The following is indicative of the bar expected; Project Proponents must set ecoregion-appropriate values and justify them at Validation.
Risk | Example indicator | Example performance threshold |
|---|---|---|
Food security & pastoral productivity | Liveweight gain, milk yield, off-take per head | No material decline relative to the rolling baseline mean, absent documented justification |
Inputs, amendments & supplements | Contaminant / residue loading of applied inputs | Within all applicable regulatory limits; no substances prohibited under relevant national or international regulation |
Soil health & land degradation | Bare-ground extent; compaction / erosion indicators | No net increase relative to baseline |
Erosion & riparian protection | Permanent vegetative ground cover; livestock access to watercourses | Ground cover maintained at or above the ecoregion-appropriate minimum; exclusion enforced where erosion risk is identified |
Water use & access | Community and ecological water availability | No reduction in established access; abstraction within applicable regulatory limits |
Animal welfare | Compliance with recognized welfare standard | Full compliance with the WOAH Terrestrial Animal Health Code or equivalent |
Biodiversity & wildlife | Habitat connectivity; predator–livestock conflict | No net loss of connectivity; documented non-lethal mitigation in place |
Relation to Isometric Standard
Additionality
The Additionality requirements of the Improved Soil Management Protocol (Section 7.4) and the Additionality Section of the Isometric Standard apply in full to Projects under this Module. This Section sets out grazing-specific supplements and modifications that are necessary because the inherited provisions are, in places, calibrated to discrete, individually-datable land-management practices and to public datasets that do not record grazing management. Where a provision in this Section conflicts with the corresponding provision in the Protocol, this Module takes precedence, in accordance with the Introduction.
As under the Protocol, additionality is assessed against a project-specific Baseline scenario and Counterfactual each Reporting Period, and Projects must not occur in regions where significant rates of the project interventions are driven by market demand, local and/or national incentives, or policies that would lead to similar grazing management practices without Carbon Finance. Government subsidies or civil contractual obligations for specific grazing practices are assessed under the Regulatory criteria of the Isometric Standard.
Prior Adoption
The prior-adoption requirement of the Protocol applies to Projects under this Module, with the following grazing-specific interpretations. The default 5 consecutive years of non-adoption, the extended 7–10 year window for a single year of adoption, and the reduced 3-year lookback following documented arm's-length management change are inherited unchanged.
Because grazing management regimes are not adopted on a single, discrete date in the manner of a tillage change, non-adoption of the project intervention must be evidenced over the five years immediately preceding project initiation, aligned to the window used to determine the Pre-Project Stocking Rate (Equations 2–3). The "project intervention" for this purpose is the specific soil-carbon-material grazing regime as defined in the Common Practice activity definition below, not the generic practice label.
Stocking and headcount records evidence livestock density but not the grazing regime itself. Non-adoption of the regime must therefore be evidenced using records that speak to management, which may include: grazing charts, paddock-move logs, or herd-movement records; paddock and fencing maps showing subdivision of the grazing area; installation, purchase, or lease dates for the fencing, water infrastructure, or stock-handling equipment that enable the regime; documented management plans or agronomic advice; and a signed attestation from the operator. Where the infrastructure required to operate the regime was installed within the lookback, its documented installation date may be taken as evidence that the regime was not practised before that date.
For episodic practices whose natural implementation cadence is longer than one year — in particular prescribed fire and mechanical brush management — non-adoption must be assessed against the practice's documented return interval rather than on a strict annual basis. A unit is treated as having prior adoption only where the episodic practice was applied within the lookback at a frequency and intensity comparable to that proposed by The Project; a single historical occurrence at an interval consistent with the practice's ordinary return period does not, by itself, constitute prior adoption.
Financial Additionality
The financial additionality requirements of the Protocol, including the USD $5.00 per-acre-per-year Per-Acre Materiality Threshold, the NPV test and its conventions, the incentive-payment definition, and the reassessment timeline, apply in full to Projects under this Module. The following addition is made to reflect that grazing incentives are commonly denominated per head of livestock or per unit of grazing capacity rather than per unit of area.
SOC-enhancing grazing practices frequently require upfront investment in fencing, water infrastructure, forage establishment, and agronomic expertise, while delivering climate benefits not captured by commodity (livestock) markets. Project Proponents must demonstrate that the adoption of project activities is contingent on Carbon Finance, in accordance with the financial additionality requirements of the Protocol and the Isometric Standard.
Where a practice-linked incentive is paid on a per-head, per-animal-unit, per-Livestock-Unit (LSU), or per-Animal-Unit-Month (AUM) basis, the Project Proponent must convert the payment to a per-acre basis before comparing it to the Per-Acre Materiality Threshold. The conversion must use the project area and the applicable stocking rate derived from the management and animal-day records underlying the Pre-Project Stocking Rate (Equations 2–3). Where project-specific stocking data are unavailable, the Project Proponent must apply the regional (sub-national administrative unit or equivalent) average stocking density published by the relevant agricultural statistics agency, with documented justification. For Project Areas outside the United States, the threshold is applied at the equivalent value per local unit of area.
Common Practice
The Common Practice demonstration of the Protocol applies to Projects under this Module, adapted as set out below. The adaptations are necessary because (i) the public dataset the Protocol mandates where available — the USDA Census of Agriculture — does not record the eligible grazing activities, so the Census-anchored trend bands in ISM Table 3 cannot be evaluated for grazing; and (ii) coarse public statistics that do exist for grazing (for example, headline "rotational grazing" adoption rates) aggregate management sub-types with materially different soil-carbon outcomes, and so do not measure the specific regime a Project implements. Where this Section conflicts with ISM §7.4.3, this Module takes precedence.
The five demonstration steps of the Protocol are retained. Their grazing-specific application is as follows.
Step 1 — Define the project activity (anchor practice)
The Project Proponent must define the anchor practice by the management parameters that are material to soil carbon dynamics, and as a material change relative to the baseline grazing regime on the enrolled unit — not by the name of the grazing subtype. Grazing subtypes (for example continuous, deferred, simple rotational, strip, mob or high-density, leader-follower, or multi-species grazing) are recorded as descriptors of the regime but do not, by themselves, determine eligibility. The scientific evidence base does not support a fixed ranking of grazing subtypes by soil carbon outcome — comparisons of rotational and continuous systems are mixed and the response is strongly dependent on climate, soil, and baseline condition — and the soil carbon effect of a regime is established for crediting through measurement under Section 9, not asserted from its subtype.
The material parameters used to define the regime must be stated and justified, and must be the parameters through which the regime is expected to affect soil carbon. On the current evidence base these are, in particular: grazing intensity (stocking rate or density, and the resulting forage utilisation, residual biomass, or ground cover); the length and timing of rest and recovery periods; and the rotation and timing of grazing across the grazing area. The Project Proponent must reference the best available scientific literature linking the chosen parameters to soil carbon outcomes in a comparable production system, land type, and ecological context, and must acknowledge where that evidence is limited or contested.
Eligibility as an anchor practice does not depend on the regime bearing any particular label or matching a proprietary system; it depends on the regime representing a material change in these parameters from the baseline regime, expected to increase soil carbon. The regime as defined here is the basis for the like-for-like comparison used in the prior-adoption assessment above and in the remainder of this Common Practice assessment: adoption and non-adoption must be assessed against operations running a materially equivalent regime, not against the broad subtype label.
Step 2 — Geographic area and comparable class of adopters
For grazing, the geographic area and comparable class of adopters required by the Protocol must be stratified by production system (for example cow-calf, stocker, dairy, or sheep), by land type (rangeland versus improved or sown pasture), and by ecological context (Major Land Resource Area, ecological site, or equivalent). The comparison set must comprise grazing operations of a like system, land type, and ecological context that are not receiving Carbon Finance.
Step 3 — Assess the market penetration rate (grazing data hierarchy)
The Protocol's requirement to use the USDA Census of Agriculture where available does not apply to the eligible activities of this Module, as the Census does not record them. In its place, the Project Proponent must assess the market penetration rate of the anchor practice using the most granular source available from the following hierarchy that resolves the specific regime defined in Step 1, using the most recent available estimate:
- A representative survey of comparable operators conducted in accordance with the survey-based approach of the Protocol (documented sampling design; a minimum of 30 responses recommended), or first-party adoption data for a proprietary program;
- Sub-national or regional government or agency data (for example NRCS National Resources Inventory, or regional cow-calf statistics from USDA ERS/ARMS);
- National government or agency data, used only where regional data are unavailable and applied with the subcategory caution in Step 5;
- Peer-reviewed literature or independent research with full, transparent methods.
Remote-sensing-derived adoption estimates (for example the Rangeland Analysis Platform) may supplement the above with documented justification. The trend-based 20–35% and 35–50% adoption bands of ISM Table 3 are not available under this Module, as no grazing dataset provides a comparable multi-period time series.
Step 4 — Anchor and secondary practices
Grazing Projects typically deploy an integrated regime in which one practice is the primary driver of the soil carbon increase and others are supporting. Accordingly, where a Project implements more than one eligible practice within a geographic area:
- the anchor practice — the practice defined in Step 1 as primarily responsible for the soil carbon increase — must carry the full Common Practice demonstration (Steps 1–3 and Step 5); and
- each co-implemented secondary practice (for example improved forage species, water management, or brush burning or mulching where these are not the anchor) requires only a qualitative demonstration that it is not, among the comparable class of adopters in the relevant region, a common practice already driven to adoption by market demand, agricultural policy, or regulatory requirement absent Carbon Finance. A separate quantitative penetration test is not required for secondary practices.
Where the Project implements a grazing-management regime (for example rotational or adaptive grazing) alongside supporting practices, that regime is the anchor practice; where no grazing-management regime is implemented, the anchor practice is the practice requiring the greatest capital investment. In all cases the Project Proponent must state and justify the anchor designation.
This modification is justified on the grounds that the anchor practice is the binding common-practice constraint and the principal SOC driver; secondary practices are supporting and are rarely the dominant regional practice; and disaggregated penetration data for secondary grazing practices generally do not exist. It does not relax the netting requirement below or the financial additionality and prior-adoption requirements, which continue to apply to the Project as a whole.
Step 5 — Adoption assessment and subcategory caution for the anchor practice
Where the available data resolve the specific regime defined in Step 1 at the stratified regional level, the Common Practice threshold applies: the anchor practice must be adopted on less than 20% of the comparable, non-Carbon-Finance area (net of the adjustments below).
Where the available data cannot resolve the specific regime — for example, where the only source is a headline "rotational grazing" figure that aggregates simple, deferred, and management-intensive or adaptive systems — that coarse statistic must not be applied at face value to disqualify the Project, because it materially overstates adoption of the narrow soil-carbon-material regime. In such cases the Project Proponent must instead demonstrate that the anchor practice is not common practice through one of the following, consistent with the granular-evidence alternative already permitted in ISM Table 3 (Band 1):
- a comprehensive evidence package using data disaggregated to the regime (survey, first-party, or regional sources under the Step 3 hierarchy) showing adoption below the 20% threshold; or
- where such disaggregated data are not feasible to obtain, a structured qualitative demonstration in accordance with the Qualitative Common Practice demonstration provision below.
Where the anchor practice's Common Practice status is established qualitatively under this provision, financial additionality and prior adoption serve as the binding quantitative demonstrations of additionality for the Project.
Where the numeric threshold is used, the adoption rate assessed for the anchor practice must be net of adoption funded or motivated by other incentives or programmes. Where common practice is instead established qualitatively, incentive and programme prevalence must be addressed within the prevailing-practice and barriers elements of the Qualitative Common Practice demonstration below. Consistent with the Protocol, the following must be subtracted, expressed in the area or capacity unit used for the assessment, where quantifiable:
- area or capacity enrolled in any private-market carbon programme for the relevant practice;
- area or capacity under any incentive programme paying more than the Materiality Threshold (converted per head or AUM to a per-acre basis as under the Financial Additionality Section above) for the relevant practice; and
- area or capacity under USDA EQIP or CSP contracts, or equivalent government conservation programmes, that specifically name the relevant practice — including, as applicable, Prescribed Grazing (528) and its enhancement (E528R), Brush Management (314), Prescribed Burning (338), Forage and Biomass Planting (512), and Range Planting (550).
Because brush management and prescribed burning are heavily funded through conservation programmes in some jurisdictions, gross and net adoption may diverge substantially for those activities; the Project Proponent must document the netting for each relevant programme.
Qualitative Common Practice demonstration
Where the Common Practice status of the anchor practice is established qualitatively under Step 5, the Project Proponent must document all of the following elements. The completed demonstration must be submitted for VVB review at validation.
- Regime definition and materiality. The material parameters of the regime (rest and recovery period, paddock count or stock density, planned rotation) and why each is material to soil carbon. Evidence: the management plan and supporting scientific literature.
- Comparable class of adopters and geographic area. The production system, land type, and ecological context defined under Step 2, and the operator population against which the regime is compared. Evidence: a description of the comparison set and its basis.
- Prevailing practice. A positive statement of the grazing management prevailing among that class absent Carbon Finance, and how it differs materially from the regime, including the prevalence of any incentive- or programme-driven adoption of the regime. Evidence: regional literature, agency or extension reports, expert statements, or first-party/survey observations.
- Barriers to adoption. The barriers that have prevented widespread adoption of the regime absent Carbon Finance, addressing at least: investment or capital barriers (for example fencing and water capital expenditure); knowledge or technical barriers (agronomic expertise, monitoring capability); and institutional or behavioural barriers (tenure, labour, risk aversion). Evidence: cost data, operator attestations, or literature.
- Conclusion. A reasoned conclusion, following from elements 1–4, that the specific regime is not common practice among comparable operators absent Carbon Finance.
The qualitative route may only be used where data cannot resolve the specific regime. Where resolving data are available and place the regime's net adoption at or above the 20% threshold, that numeric result prevails and the qualitative route must not be used to override it. The narrowness of the regime definition must reflect genuine soil-carbon materiality under element 1, not the avoidance of a numeric result.
Application outside the United States
The datasets, conservation-practice standards, and stratification frameworks referenced in this Section — for example USDA and ARMS data, NRCS Conservation Practice Standards, EQIP and CSP, and Major Land Resource Areas — are specific to the United States. For Project Areas in other jurisdictions, the Project Proponent must apply the nearest available equivalent, with documented justification of its equivalence, drawing on: the national or sub-national agricultural statistics agency; the relevant government conservation-programme registry; a recognized rangeland, pasture, or grazing-land classification; and national or regional soil and ecological mapping. Where no dataset resolves the specific regime in the jurisdiction, the Qualitative Common Practice demonstration above is the default pathway for the anchor practice. The financial-additionality Materiality Threshold is applied outside the United States.
System Boundary, Project Baseline and Leakage
System Boundary
The System Boundary for grazing land management projects encompasses all GHG sources, sinks, and reservoirs (SSRs) associated with the implementation of SOC-enhancing land management practices on eligible grazing lands. The system boundary must be defined in accordance with Section 8.1 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol and the requirements below. GHG emissions and removals associated with The Project may be direct emissions from a process, or indirect emissions from combustion of fuels, electricity generation, or other sources.
A cradle-to-grave GHG Statement must be prepared encompassing the GHG emissions and removals relating to all activities within the system boundary. The Project Proponent is responsible for identifying all sources of emissions directly or indirectly related to project activities.
Any emissions from sub-processes or process changes that would not have taken place without the CDR Project must be fully considered in the system boundary. Any additional activity that ultimately leads to the issuance of Credits must be included in the system boundary.
The system boundary must include all relevant GHG SSRs controlled and related to The Project, as set out in Table 4 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol. Any emissions from sub-processes or process changes that would not have taken place without the CDR Project must be fully considered in the system boundary.
Activities Integrated into Existing Practices
Grazing lands management projects are implemented on land under active livestock production, meaning that certain operational activities (e.g., grazing management, supplementary feeding, pasture maintenance, animal husbandry) were occurring prior to, and may continue alongside, project activities. Activities or portions of activities that were already occurring in the baseline and would have continued to occur without the grazing lands management project may be omitted from the system boundary, subject to the conditions below.
For the purpose of this provision, an “activity” may refer to an operational sub-unit, such as a discrete supplementary feeding event, a rotational grazing movement, or a paddock maintenance operation, where such sub-units can be cleanly delineated by equipment, timing, and physical scope. Where a pre-existing activity is partially modified by The Project (for example, a feeding regime whose composition is altered, or a grazing rotation whose rest periods are changed), the activity must be partitioned into:
- Portions that are materially unchanged by The Project, which may be excluded from the system boundary under this provision; and
- Portions that are new, extended, or altered as a result of The Project, which must remain within the system boundary and be quantified in accordance with Section 9.5 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol.
Activities or portions of activities that were already occurring in the baseline and would have continued to occur without the grazing land management project may be omitted from the system boundary, subject to the conditions below. An activity, or portion of an activity, may only be excluded where The Project Proponent can demonstrate all of the following:
- It was occurring as part of routine grazing land operations prior to project activities;
- It will continue to be represented in the counterfactual assessment;
- It would have continued to occur in the absence of the grazing lands management project; and
- Its scope, frequency, equipment, inputs, and intensity are not materially altered as a result of project activities.
Evidence supporting these conditions must be provided in the the LCA. This must include either:
- Historic farm or station records documenting the activity prior to project start. Acceptable records include management logs, operational records, equipment usage records, invoices, livestock movement records, or equivalent documentation; or
- A signed affidavit from the relevant operator (e.g., grazier, station manager, pastoralist, or equivalent party) confirming the activity was part of routine operations prior to The Project.
And the following:
- A signed affidavit from the relevant operator confirming:
- The equipment, timing, cadence, and intensity of the activity are not materially changed as a result of The Project; and
- The activity would have continued at a comparable level absent The Project.
Where these conditions are met, only the emissions associated with the activity as it would have occurred in the baseline may be excluded. Any incremental emissions attributable to The Project must remain within the system boundary and be accounted for in the relevant emissions section.
Module-Specific SSR Considerations
The following SSRs are particularly relevant to grazing lands management projects and must be assessed:
- Enteric methane (CH₄): Where project activities alter the total animal-days, stocking rate, herd composition, or diet quality (as measured by NDF or equivalent forage quality parameters), the enteric methane emissions associated with the change must be quantified in accordance with Section 8.5 of this Module.
- Manure and urea nitrogen (N₂O): Where project activities alter stocking rate, forage crude protein content, or supplementary feeding regimes, the resulting change in nitrogen deposition via urine and dung must be quantified in accordance with Section 8.5.2 of this Module.
- Imported fodder and feed concentrate: Where project activities result in a net increase in fodder or concentrate feed imported from outside the project boundary, the embodied emissions, enteric emissions, and manure emissions associated with the additional imports must be quantified in accordance with Sections 8.4 of this Module.
- Fencing and water infrastructure: Where new fencing, watering points, or stock handling infrastructure is installed as part of The Project (e.g., for rotational grazing, riparian exclusion, or water-point relocation), the embodied emissions associated with materials manufacture, transport, and installation must be included.
- Pasture renovation and forage establishment: Where improved pasture species are sown, or pasture renovation is undertaken as a project activity, the embodied emissions associated with seed production, transport, and establishment operations (including any tillage or direct-drilling) must be included.
- Soil amendments: Where compost, manure, lime, biochar, or other soil amendments are applied as part of The Project, embodied emissions associated with their production, processing, and transport to site must be included.
- Brush management and prescribed fire: Where project activities include prescribed burning or mechanical brush clearing, CH₄ and N₂O emissions from biomass burning, and fuel emissions from mechanical operations, must be included. CO₂ from burning of biogenic vegetation is excluded as it is considered carbon-cycle neutral.
Excluded Pools and Sources
In accordance with the Improved Soil Management Protocol, the following are excluded from the system boundary for grazing lands management projects:
- Aboveground woody biomass and belowground woody biomass carbon pools (these terms must be set to zero in Equation 3 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol, as specified in Section 9 of this Module);
- Deadwood, litter, and non-woody herbaceous biomass carbon pools, as these are considered transient;
- Emissions reductions: Any emissions reductions (e.g., reduced enteric methane from lower stocking rates, or reduced N₂O from reduced fertiliser application) will not count to offset positive emissions for purposes of calculating CO₂e Removals. All emissions sources within the system boundary must be reported as strictly positive values. Emissions reductions are not credited through this Module and emissions reductions scoped in the Agricultural Practices Reductions Module are not applicable.
Project Boundary
The Project Boundary defines the spatial and temporal extent of the project within which all GHG SSRs are quantified. The Project Boundary is set at the time of project initiation in accordance with Section 8 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol and may be modified during the Crediting Period in accordance with the provisions therein. The Project Boundary must encompass:
- All areas of grazing land on which SOC-enhancing management practices are implemented as part of The Project;
- All areas used for the production of fodder or feed that is consumed by livestock within the project (where these areas are enrolled in the project);
- All control plot areas established for counterfactual assessment under Section 9.2 of this Module; and
- Any areas affected by project-related infrastructure (e.g., fencing, water points, stock handling facilities) that lie within the project footprint.
SSR Table for Grazing Lands Management Projects
The system boundary must include all relevant GHG SSRs controlled and related to The Project, including but not limited to the SSRs set out in Table 4 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol and the module-specific SSRs set out in Table 1 below. Values for all SSRs must be strictly positive. Any emissions reductions will not count to offset positive emissions for purposes of calculating CO₂eRemovals.
If any GHG SSR within Table 1 is deemed not appropriate to include in the system boundary, it may be excluded provided that robust justification and appropriate evidence is provided in the PDD. Furthermore, if any SSR is expected to be negligible, it may be excluded in line with Section 5 of the GHG Accounting Module.
Table 1 — Module-Specific SSRs for Grazing Lands Management Projects
Activity Phase | GHG Source, Sink or Reservoir | GHG | Scope | Timescale |
Project Establishment | Fencing and water infrastructure | All GHGs | Embodied emissions associated with manufacture and transport of fencing materials, water troughs, pipes, tanks, and stock handling equipment installed for project activities (lifecycle modules A1-4). | Before project operations start. Must be accounted for in the first Reporting Period or amortised in line with allocation rules. |
Project Establishment | Pasture renovation and forage establishment | All GHGs | Emissions associated with seed production, transport, and establishment operations including any tillage, direct-drilling, or aerial seeding undertaken as part of project activities (lifecycle modules A1-5). | Before project operations start. Must be accounted for in the first Reporting Period or amortised in line with allocation rules. |
Operations | Enteric fermentation (CH₄) | CH₄ | Methane emissions from enteric fermentation by livestock on the project area. Must be assessed where project activities alter total animal-days, stocking rate, herd composition, or diet quality. Quantified in accordance with Section 8.5.1 of this Module. | Over each Reporting Period. |
Operations | Manure and urine nitrogen deposition (N₂O) | N₂O | Direct and indirect N₂O emissions from nitrogen deposited to soil via livestock urine and dung on the project area. Must be assessed where project activities alter stocking rate, forage crude protein, or supplementary feeding. Quantified in accordance with Section 8.5.2 of this Module. | Over each Reporting Period. |
Operations | Imported fodder emissions | All GHGs | Enteric CH₄, manure N₂O, and upstream transport CO₂ emissions associated with any net increase in fodder imported from outside the project boundary. Quantified in accordance with Section 8.5 of this Module. | Over each Reporting Period. |
Operations | Imported feed concentrate emissions | All GHGs | Embodied emissions of manufacture, processing, and transport of concentrates, supplements, mineral blocks, and other feed concentrate imported from outside the project boundary where there is a net increase relative to pre-project levels. Quantified in accordance with Section 8.4.7 of this Module. | Over each Reporting Period. |
Operations | Soil amendment application | All GHGs | Embodied emissions associated with the manufacture and application of additional soil amendments including lime, biochar, or other organic and mineral amendments applied as part of project activities. Direct CO2 from liming/urea applicatio. | Over each Reporting Period. |
Operations | Prescribed fire and brush management | CH₄, N₂O | CH₄ and N₂O emissions from prescribed burning of vegetation. Fuel combustion emissions from mechanical brush clearing operations. CO₂ from burning of biogenic vegetation is excluded. | Over each Reporting Period. |
Operations | CO₂ stored | CO₂ | The gross amount of CO₂ removed and durably stored as soil organic carbon (see Section 9). Quantification must be based on measured changes in SOC stocks within the system boundary. | Over each Reporting Period. |
End-of-Life | Ongoing Monitoring | All GHGs | Emissions relating to monitoring activities over the Ongoing Monitoring Period, including soil sampling campaigns, remote sensing data acquisition, site visits, laboratory analysis, and associated travel. | After Crediting Period. Must be estimated and accounted for in the first Reporting Period or amortised in line with allocation rules (see Section 9.5 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol). |
End-of-Life | Ongoing Grazing Management | All GHGs | Emissions relating to ongoing management activities required to maintain SOC stocks over the Project Commitment Period, including maintenance and repair of project infrastructure (fencing, water points, stock handling facilities), and continued implementation of grazing management practices. | After Crediting Period. Must be estimated and accounted for in the first Reporting Period or amortised in line with allocation rules. |
End-of-Life | Infrastructure Decommissioning | All GHGs | Anticipated end-of-life emissions (lifecycle modules C1–4) associated with decommissioning and disposal of project infrastructure, including fencing, water infrastructure, stock handling facilities, and any monitoring equipment installed as part of The Project. | After Crediting Period. Must be estimated and accounted for in the first Reporting Period or amortised in line with allocation rules. |
End-of-Life | Misc. | All GHGs | Any SSRs not captured by categories above (e.g., ongoing staff travel, administrative activities related to project maintenance during the Ongoing Monitoring Period). | After Crediting Period. Must be estimated and accounted for in the first Reporting Period or amortised in line with allocation rules. |
Leakage
Overview of Leakage Assessment
Leakage emissions, , occur when project activities lead to emissions that occur outside the system boundary of grazing land management projects. They include increases in GHG emissions as a result of grazing land management projects displacing emissions or causing a secondary effect that increases emissions elsewhere. Three key types of leakage can theoretically occur for grazing land management projects:
- Activity-shifting leakage. Grazing land management projects may displace activities in their project areas, leading to an increase in those activities outside of the project area, which may result in potential land conversion. Examples are where the local community can no longer use the whole project site for subsistence, or where part of a farmer’s productivity is displaced as a result of project activities. This type of leakage is known as “Direct” leakage as the relevant stakeholders can be identified and the activity-shifting is traceable.
- Market leakage. Grazing land management projects may displace activities, which results in a reduction in supply of a commodity. Changes to the supply and demand equilibrium causes other market actors to shift their activities, leading to potential land conversion. This type of leakage is known as “Indirect” leakage because its effects cannot be isolated and measured directly. Quantifying the likelihood and potential magnitude of market leakage is complex and relies heavily on modeling and available literature.
- Ecological leakage. Project activities may lead to emissions in areas outside of the project site as a result of ecological interactions, for example unintended hydrological impacts, introduction of disease, or secondary impacts of faunal influx.
Regarding activity-shifting leakage, as an eligibility criteria Projects must not systematically or permanently reduce the productive capacity of the enrolled land (as calculated in Section 8.3.2.1), and should seek to maintain or enhance production on Project Sites over the medium to long-term relative to historical productivity levels. Requirements for activity-shifting leakage are set out in Section 8.3.6.
Regarding market leakage, the Project should seek to maintain or enhance productivity from pre-project levels, so any reductions in productivity should be incidental. An approach for assessing productivity and associated market leakage is outlined in Sections 8.3.2 - 8.3.4.
Regarding ecological leakage, Project activities that adversely alter the water table, harming ecological integrity within the project area and surrounding landscape and watershed, are not permitted under this Module. Assessing wider ecological leakage impacts is complex. For this version of the Module ecological leakage is assumed to be zero. This will be revisited in future updates to the Protocol.
Regionally-indexed productivity metric
Market-leakage risk arises where a project reduces the supply of a livestock commodity, inducing production and potential land conversion elsewhere. Project productivity is therefore indexed against a regional benchmark so that only project-attributable changes are assessed.
Headage rate, scaling factor, and stocking rate
The Pre-Project Headage Rate (PPHR) is the annual average density of livestock supported by the project area, calculated for each livestock category by summing total animal-days for each herd and dividing by the days in the year and the project area or the allocated grazing area. PPHR must reflect an average of the five years prior to project activities. Headcounts must be determined from farm/land-management records (production records, financial logs, activity logs, or GPS tags).
For each livestock category l, the Headage Rate is the animal-day-weighted mean number of head carried per hectare over a year. It is calculated for the pre-project baseline (the Pre-Project Headage Rate, PPHR) and, identically, for each project year (the Project-Scenario Headage Rate, PSHR):
(Equation 1)
Where:
-
indexes livestock category;
-
is a distinct herd of category l present on the project area during the year;
-
is the headcount of herd h in year y (heads);
-
is the number of days herd h was supported by the project area in year y, including days housed off-pasture but fed on forage produced on the project area (days);
-
is the number of days in year y (365 or 366);
-
is the relevant grazing area: the project area, or the commodity's allocated area under Equation 9 where productivity is assessed at commodity level (ha);
-
is the Pre-Project Headage Rate (heads·ha⁻¹). The Project-Scenario Headage Rate PSHR(l,t) is computed identically over project years .
Stocking Rate (PPSR and PSSR)
The Headage Rate is converted to the Stocking Rate in livestock units per hectare (LSU·ha⁻¹) using a category scaling factor, giving the Pre-Project Stocking Rate (PPSR) and Project-Scenario Stocking Rate (PSSR):
(Equation 2a)
(Equation 2b)
Where:
- is the scaling factor for category l (LSU·head⁻¹), converting one head of category l to a common livestock-unit basis by forage intake / liveweight equivalence. SF is sourced from standard coefficients (e.g., FAO 2011; IPCC 2019 Refinement, Vol. 4, Ch. 10) or from project-specific liveweight measurements, and must be applied consistently to the pre-project and project-scenario calculations;
- is the Pre-Project Stocking Rate (LSU·ha⁻¹);
- is the Project-Scenario Stocking Rate (LSU·ha⁻¹).
The stocking rate (LSU·ha⁻¹) is the productivity metric used for leakage estimation: it normalises headage across livestock categories and age classes and, where the scaling factor is derived from liveweight, reflects differences in animal size.
Productivity is assessed by livestock-commodity class c (e.g., beef cattle, dairy, sheep/goat meat, wool). The category stocking rates are aggregated to the commodity class they supply (Sections 8.3.2.3–8.3.2.4). Where Appendix D provides a single livestock default (as at present), all livestock commodities share that increased-supply and new-land value; commodity-specific defaults may be adopted as they become available.
A Project Proponent may instead use a direct output-based productivity metric (e.g., liveweight sold or milk produced, per hectare) where reliable saleable-output records and a corresponding regional output benchmark exist. The same metric and source must be used consistently for the pre-project and project-scenario calculations for a given commodity class.
Regional benchmark and data sources
The regional benchmark R(reg,c,y) is the mean stocking rate of the same commodity class across the relevant region, in the same units as the project metric (LSU·ha⁻¹ by default). It is derived from official statistics at the county or equivalent sub-national level — for example, USDA NASS county livestock inventory converted to livestock units using standard coefficients and divided by regional pasture/rangeland area; USDA NASS/ERS regional data; or, where sub-national data are unavailable, national statistics or FAOSTAT. Where a direct output-based metric is used (Section 8.3.2.1), the benchmark must be the corresponding regional output density. The benchmark region must be the smallest jurisdiction for which reliable data exist that is representative of the project's production system and agro-ecological context (by default the county or Major Land Resource Area). The chosen region, source, and vintage must be documented in the PDD and held constant for the baseline-mean calculation.
Regional indexing is the mechanism by which region-wide shocks are neutralised: when a drought depresses both project and regional productivity proportionally, the indexed ratio is preserved and no leakage is registered (see Section 8.3.5).
Pre-Project Productivity (PPP)
The project-level pre-project stocking rate for a commodity class aggregates the Pre-Project Stocking Rates of the livestock categories that supply that commodity:
(Equation 3)
Where:
- is the project-level pre-project stocking rate for commodity c in baseline year y (LSU·ha⁻¹);
- is the Pre-Project Stocking Rate of category (Equation 2a); ranges over the categories supplying commodity .
Pre-Project Productivity for commodity class is then calculated over a baseline of at least five calendar years, indexed to the regional benchmark:
(Equation 4)
Where:
- is the Pre-Project Productivity for commodity (LSU·ha⁻¹);
- is the regional benchmark stocking rate for commodity in baseline year (LSU·ha⁻¹);
- is the mean regional benchmark stocking rate for commodity c over the baseline period (≥5 years);
- indexes the ≥5 baseline years (y = −5 … −1 relative to project initiation).
Project-Scenario Productivity (PSP)
The project-level project-scenario stocking rate for a commodity class aggregates the Project-Scenario Stocking Rates of its supplying categories:
(Equation 5)
Where:
- is the project-level project-scenario stocking rate for commodity in project year (LSU·ha⁻¹);
- is the Project-Scenario Stocking Rate of category (Equation 2b).
From the fifth project year onward, Project-Scenario Productivity is evaluated on a rolling five-year window ending in the Reporting Period RP, using the same regional source:
(Equation 6)
Where:
- is the Project-Scenario Productivity for commodity in Reporting Period (LSU·ha⁻¹);
- is the trailing five-year window (RP−4 ≤ t ≤ RP);
- is the first project year; is the same baseline-period constant as in Equation 4.
Productivity shortfall
The productivity shortfall for commodity c is the indexed decline relative to the pre-project baseline, floored at zero:
(Equation 7)
Where ≥ , the shortfall is zero and no leakage assessment is required for that commodity. Productivity surpluses are not carried over between Reporting Periods and are not used to offset shortfalls in other commodity classes.
Net project productivity, materiality and suspension thresholds
Project-level expected baseline production for commodity , expressed in livestock units, is:
(Equation 8)
Where:
- is the expected baseline production for commodity in the Reporting Period (LSU);
- is the project area supporting commodity in the Reporting Period (ha), determined under Equation 9.
Area allocation for mixed-species paddocks. Where a paddock or management unit is grazed by more than one livestock-commodity class including at different times under a rotation its area is allocated among those commodities in proportion to each commodity's share of the paddock's total livestock units over the Reporting Period:
(Equation 9)
Where:
- indexes paddocks or management units within the project area;
- is the area of paddock (ha);
- is the animal-day-weighted livestock units of commodity c carried on paddock g over the Reporting Period, computed from the headage and scaling-factor terms of Equations 1–2b, so that a commodity's time-share of a rotationally grazed paddock is captured;
- the denominator sums over all commodities grazing paddock .
The same allocation is applied consistently to the pre-project baseline and the project scenario, and the allocated areas sum to the total grazed project area with no double-counting. The commodity stocking rates and (Equations 3 and 5) are expressed per hectare of the area so allocated; where a paddock is grazed by a single commodity, is simply that paddock's area.
The Net Project Productivity shortfall for commodity c is the indexed shortfall applied over that area:
(Equation 10)
Where:
- is the Net Project Productivity shortfall for commodity in the Reporting Period (LSU).
The shortfall ratio for commodity is / . Two thresholds apply to this ratio:
- De minimis threshold (materiality gate). Where / ≤ 0.03, the decline is within the de minimis materiality threshold and no leakage deduction applies for that commodity in that Reporting Period. The threshold is a materiality gate, not a deductible: where the ratio exceeds 3%, leakage is assessed on the full value of , not only the portion above 3%.
- Crediting-suspension threshold. Where / > 0.15 for any commodity class, the project is ineligible for crediting for that Reporting Period unless a temporary exemption is granted under Section 8.3.5. Because the decline is regionally indexed, this gate is triggered only by project-attributable (idiosyncratic) collapse in output, not by region-wide events.
Exogenous destocking and the livestock-emissions counterfactual
Grazing systems, particularly on North American rangelands, are subject to large weather-driven swings in stocking. Multi-year drought, regulatory destocking orders, and disease or biosecurity events routinely force destocking well beyond a few percent, and destocking in these circumstances is the agronomically correct response; it protects baseline soil carbon, forage recovery, and animal welfare, consistent with the safeguarding requirements of Section 6.1. The approach handles these events in three complementary ways.
(a) Regional indexing neutralises region-wide events. Because Project-Scenario Productivity is indexed to the regional benchmark (Equation 6), a decline that is shared across the region depresses both the numerator and denominator proportionally, leaving the indexed ratio, and therefore ΔP, largely unchanged. A project that destocks no more than its regional peers during a drought therefore registers little or no shortfall, incurs no leakage deduction, and does not approach the suspension gate. No application or exemption is required for this to operate.
(b) The soil is modelled as actually managed; livestock emissions are held at the normal-herd counterfactual. SOC is modeled and measured as activities actually occur (including reduced or removed livestock), while the enteric CH₄ (Section 8.5.1) and manure/urine N₂O (Section 8.5.2) terms are held at the emissions the regionally-indexed pre-project herd (the PPSR herd, Equation 2a) would have produced absent the event, so the project cannot bank reductions from cattle it intends to return.
(c) Localized events. Where an exogenous cause contributes to a PSP shortfall that is not reflected in regional data, Isometric may adjust PSP by a counterfactual estimate reflecting the localized impact. The Project must submit evidence that the shortfall is unrelated to project design, management, or land-use change, and that comparable systems in the surrounding region did not experience similar impacts (e.g., county-level statistics, meteorological or disaster records, government or insurance reports).
Documentation and eligibility. Relief persists for as long as the exogenous condition is independently verified to be ongoing, consistent with the drought treatment recognised for reversals under the ISM Protocol.
Activity-shifting leakage
Activity-shifting leakage occurs where project activities displace grazing or production to identifiable land outside the project boundary. Projects must not systematically or permanently reduce the productive capacity of enrolled land, and must seek to maintain or enhance production relative to historical levels. Where livestock must be relocated in the early stages of a project, the Project Proponent must either:
- include the land to which livestock are moved within the project boundary (in which case no deduction applies, provided the receiving land is not overgrazed to the detriment of its own soil carbon); or
- move livestock to alternative land or house and feed them, in which case the associated fodder-import, enteric, and manure emissions must be quantified under Section 8.5.
Because market leakage is quantified under Sections 8.3.2–8.3.4, any genuine displacement that manifests as a project-attributable reduction in project-area output is captured through that assessment. Residual traceable activity-shifting leakage is treated as immaterial for this version of the Module.
Grazed but ineligible in-holding areas. Areas within a ranch that are grazed but not eligible for crediting (for example dense forest, crop-residue on adjacent row crops, or high-slope non-sampleable terrain) and that were grazed historically do not, by themselves, constitute activity shifting and do not trigger a leakage penalty, provided grazing on them is not increased beyond historical levels as a result of the project. Proponents must document historical use of such areas and confirm no project-induced intensification.
Market leakage quantification
For each commodity class with a net shortfall above the de minimis threshold, foregone project output expressed as foregone stocking, in livestock units is assumed to be partially replaced by production elsewhere, a portion of which is met by bringing new land into production. Default parameters for the quantification are provided in Appendix D.
Induced land conversion
The area of induced land conversion for commodity is:
(Equation 11)
Where:
- is the induced land conversion for commodity in the Reporting Period (ha);
- is the increased-supply fraction (Section 8.3.4.2);
- is the proportion of increased supply met by new land (Section 8.3.4.3);
- is the stocking rate on new land (Section 8.3.4.4).
Increased supply ()
IS is the proportion of the foregone output that will be replaced by increased supply elsewhere, derived from the price elasticities of supply and demand for the commodity:
(Equation 12)
Where:
- and are the price elasticities of supply and demand for commodity .
Where Isometric has provided default elasticities for the project's region and commodity in Appendix D, those defaults must be used; Appendix D provides livestock elasticity defaults for North America and South America. For regions or commodities not covered, elasticities must be sourced from academic literature published in the last 15 years in reputable journals or reports, using dynamic-panel or instrumental-variable techniques based on planting/production-season time-series prices, following the procedure in Appendix D.
Proportion of increased supply met by new land ()
NL is the share of increased supply that is met by bringing new land into production (extensification) rather than by intensification on existing land. Where Isometric has provided a default NL for the project's region and land use in Appendix D, that default must be used; Appendix D provides livestock NL defaults for the United States and Brazil. For other regions, NL is sourced by the standard approach (Method B), analysing land-use change relative to production change from a policy or price shock:
(Equation 13)
Where:
- is a one-tonne reduction in supply (or a one-unit price increase);
- and are the area-expansion and yield-intensification responses to .
Method A (the ratio of land deforested to total new agricultural land during large, demand-driven expansions in markets disconnected from international trade) may be used only in the special cases described in Appendix D.
Yield on new land ()
The stocking rate of new land brought into production for commodity is set equal to the pre-project regional mean stocking rate, , used in Equation 4.
Carbon-stock emission factor (EF)
is derived from the IPCC average national aboveground biomass content of the land cover for the ecosystem displaced by commodity c, using Table 3A.1.4 of the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (2003). Biomass carbon is converted to CO₂e using the carbon fraction (CF) specified by the IPCC for the relevant vegetation type and the CO₂/C mass ratio (44/12).
Leakage-emission calculation
Total leakage emissions for the Reporting Period are the sum across all commodity classes with a net shortfall:
(Equation 14)
Where:
- the sum is taken over all commodity classes c for which > 0.
is included in project emissions and the leakage discount is applied exclusively to removal credits, in accordance with the ISM Protocol. Leakage is quantified for every Reporting Period.
Monitoring and Quantification of Imported Fodder
Scope and Definitions
Imported feed refers to any feed material brought into the project boundary from an external source for consumption by livestock within the project area. Imported feed comprises two categories: fodder and feed concentrate, as defined in Table G3.
Table G3. Categories of imported feed.
Feed Category | Definition | Examples |
|---|---|---|
Fodder | Forage-based feed produced off-site and imported into the project boundary for livestock consumption. Includes conserved forages and fresh-cut material. | Hay, silage (grass, maize, whole-crop), haylage, fresh-cut forage, straw (where fed), green chop. |
Feed concentrate | Manufactured, processed, or supplementary feed products imported into the project boundary that are not forage-based. Includes energy and protein concentrates, compound feeds, mineral and vitamin supplements, and feed additives. | Grain-based rations, oilseed meals (soybean, canola, cottonseed), distillers grains, compound pellets, mineral blocks, salt licks, urea licks, methane-reducing feed additives (e.g., 3-NOP, seaweed-derived compounds), veterinary supplements administered through feed or water. |
Ideally, all lands utilised for the production of fodder should be included within the project boundary. Incorporating these lands ensures a closed-loop system where all carbon cycles, from atmospheric sequestration in plant biomass to soil deposition via manure, are fully accounted for without the need for deductions. Where fodder or feed concentrate is imported from production areas outside of the project boundary, the project is subject to the monitoring and quantification requirements set out in this Section.
The requirements below apply separately to each feed category (fodder and feed concentrate). A net increase in one category cannot be offset against a net decrease in the other.
Net Increase Approach
Given that feed imports are already a part of many livestock systems, a net-increase approach is applied. Deductions are only required where there is a net increase in imported feed relative to the pre-project baseline. The net increase is calculated separately for each feed category:
(Equation 15)
Where:
- indexes feed category, with feed bases:
- : quantities are in (tonnes of dry matter);
- : quantities are in ;
- is the annual Pre-Project Feed Imports of category , defined as the 5-year historical mean plus one standard deviation of annual imports, in the units of ;
- is the Project-Scenario Feed Imports of category for the Reporting Period, calculated as the sum over the Reporting Period of annual imports of in the units of ;
- is the number of years in the Reporting Period.
- is the Net Feed Imports for category , in the units of . triggers a deduction; requires no deduction.
(Equation 16)
Where:
- is enteric CH₄ emissions associated with in the Reporting Period, in , calculated per Section 8.5.1 (applied incrementally to );
- is manure-management N₂O emissions associated with , in , calculated per Section 8.5.2;
- is embodied (upstream production + processing + packaging) emissions associated with , in , calculated using published LCA data or IPCC Vol. 4 Ch. 10 / 11 factors;
- is transport CO₂ emissions for imports in ;
- for , may be set to zero where the fodder is unprocessed grass/hay; for , must always be quantified.
Determining Pre-Project Feed Imports
Fodder
The Pre-Project Fodder Imports () into the project area must be quantified from farm or land management records, including financial receipts and invoices, delivery slips, or daily feed logs. The import rate must be reflective of an average of the five years prior to the project activities.
In subsistence or smallholder contexts, if formal receipts and invoices are not available, the quantification of imported fodder should use a combination of standardized surveys and participatory rural appraisal (PRA). Project Proponents must establish a verifiable baseline by documenting business-as-usual feeding practices such as scavenging roadside grasses or utilizing communal lands through recall-based interviews and the weighing of local units (e.g., head-loads or carts).
For purposes of evaluating whether there are differences between PPFI and PSFI, and in recognition of the variability of feed usage in a given year for a range of factors many outside of the Project's control (e.g., weather, commodity prices), shall reflect one standard deviation above the mean of the historical fodder imports. While this presents the potential for a small amount of unaccounted emissions from additional fodder usage, this flexibility is considered reasonable given the natural incentive for farmers to reduce fodder imports to reduce costs.
Feed Concentrate
The Pre-Project Feed Concentrate Imports () into the project area must be quantified from farm or land management records, including financial receipts and invoices, delivery slips, feed mill records, or daily feed logs. The import rate must be reflective of an average of the five years prior to the project activities.
In subsistence or smallholder contexts, if formal receipts and invoices are not available, the quantification of imported feed concentrate should use a combination of standardized surveys and participatory rural appraisal (PRA), consistent with the approach for fodder in Section 8.4.3.1.
As with fodder, shall reflect one standard deviation above the mean of the historical feed concentrate imports, for the same rationale as set out in Section 8.4.3.1.
Determining Project-Scenario Feed Imports
The Project-Scenario import of feed into the project area must be documented in a Feed Imports Log and quantified for each Reporting Period, separately for each feed category. Imports must be quantified from farm or land management records, including financial receipts and invoices, delivery slips, feed mill records, or daily feed logs.
For subsistence or smallholder projects where formal receipts may be unavailable, the project must utilize Digital Proxy Logs (e.g., time-stamped photos of feed bags, fodder bundles, or containers with standardized weight estimations) or a Community Ledger verified by a project coordinator.
Exceptional Circumstances Affecting Project-Scenario Feed Imports
Where for either feed category is significantly larger than the corresponding , and the increase is primarily due to exogenous natural causes beyond the reasonable control of the Project (such as extreme weather events, drought, flooding, hail, or region-wide pest or disease outbreaks), PSFI may be evaluated in a broader regional context.
In such circumstances, the Project Proponent must provide evidence demonstrating that:
- The cause of the feed requirement is unrelated to Project design, management decisions, or land-use change; and
- Comparable agricultural systems in the surrounding region experienced similar impacts during the same period.
Evidence may include, but is not limited to: regional or county-level yield statistics, meteorological or disaster records, government or insurance reports, and peer-reviewed or authoritative third-party data.
Where Isometric determines that the exogenous natural causes materially contribute to the increase in , Isometric may adjust the for that Reporting Period by applying a counterfactual estimate that reflects regional impacts, for the purposes of a difference-in-differences analysis.
Feed Import Units
Fodder
All imported fodder must be converted to Metric Tonnes of Dry Matter to ensure standardized carbon and nitrogen accounting. If records only provide bale counts, the project must periodically weigh representative samples to establish an average mass per unit. In the absence of lab-tested moisture data, the project shall apply conservative default values (e.g., 15% moisture for hay, 60% moisture for silage) to determine the dry weight. The assumptions made for unit conversion must be clearly documented.
Feed Concentrate
All imported feed concentrate must be converted to Metric Tonnes (as-fed basis) to ensure standardized accounting. Where records provide unit counts (e.g., bags, blocks), the project must establish an average mass per unit through periodic weighing of representative samples. Where feed concentrate is supplied in compound or mixed form, the total mass of the compound product must be recorded. The assumptions made for unit conversion must be clearly documented.
Emissions Associated with Increased Feed Imports
Emissions must be calculated for any net increase in feed imports ( > 0). The emission sources differ by feed category, as set out below.
Fodder
The following emission sources must be quantified for any net increase in imported fodder, using the latest IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories:
- Enteric Fermentation (CH₄): Emissions resulting from the digestion of the additional fodder by the livestock, following the approach in Section 8.5.1 of this Module.
- Manure Management (N₂O): Emissions resulting from the nitrogen content of the fodder once excreted as manure on the project land, following the approach in Section 8.5.2 of this Module.
- Upstream/Transport Emissions (CO₂): If the fodder is sourced from further than 50 km one-way delivery distance, CO₂ emissions from transport must be included.
Feed Concentrate
The following emission sources must be quantified for any net increase in imported feed concentrate:
- Embodied Emissions (CO₂e): Emissions associated with the manufacture, processing, and packaging of the feed product, using published lifecycle assessment data or emission factors from the latest IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
- Enteric Fermentation (CH₄): Where the additional feed concentrate is consumed by livestock on the project area, the enteric methane emissions resulting from digestion of the additional feed must be calculated, following the approach in Section 8.5.1 of this Module.
- Manure Management (N₂O): Emissions resulting from the nitrogen content of the feed once excreted as manure on the project land, following the approach in Section 8.5.2 of this Module.
- Upstream/Transport Emissions (CO₂): If the feed concentrate is sourced from further than 50 km one-way delivery distance, CO₂ emissions from transport must be included.
Deduction for Increases in Feed Imports
The total deduction for increased feed imports in a given Reporting Period is the sum of all quantified emissions across both feed categories:
(Equation 17)
Where:
- is the total feed-import deduction for the Reporting Period, in .
This deduction must be subtracted from the net carbon benefit of the project for that Reporting Period. If the total deduction exceeds the sequestration gains, the project shall yield zero credits for that period.
Emissions associated with livestock
As all grazing lands include livestock the cradle-to-grave GHG Statement must consider CH₄ emissions due to enteric fermentation as well as CH₄ and N₂O emissions due to manure and urea deposition.
Methane emissions due to livestock
The quantification of enteric methane (CH₄) emissions is a requirement of this methodology to ensure a comprehensive net carbon balance. Given that enteric fermentation is the primary source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in livestock-based land use, it represents a significant potential source of emissions that could offset gains achieved through soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration.
Project proponents shall be exempt from enteric methane deductions provided they demonstrate Methane Neutrality, defined as a project-scenario methane load that does not exceed the baseline. This condition is satisfied if the following condition is met:
(Equation 18a)
Where:
- is the project-level Pre-Project Stocking Rate, in , per Equation 4c;
- is the project-level Reporting-Period mean Project-Scenario Stocking Rate, in ;
- is the pre-project Methane Conversion Factor (dimensionless), produced by Equation 18b applied to the 5-year pre-project NDF time series;
- is the Reporting-Period weighted-average project-scenario Methane Conversion Factor (dimensionless), produced by Equation 18b applied to the Reporting-Period NDF time series.
(Equation 18b)
Where:
- is the weighted-functional-average Neutral Detergent Fibre concentration (g/kg DM), per Equation 19;
- , are the analogous weighted-functional averages of Water-Soluble Carbohydrate and Starch (g/kg DM);
- are the regression coefficients from Niu et al. (2018), which must be cited verbatim with their reported standard errors and propagated through the Section 9.1.1 Monte Carlo;
- is the IPCC tabular function (step function over diet-quality classes);
- is any alternative peer-reviewed model approved at Validation.
(Equation 18c)
Where:
-
is the Project Area, in ;
-
is the gross energy intake per LSU per year, in corresponding to the pre-project stocking rate (IPCC 2019 Refinement Vol.4 Ch.10 Eq. 10.16, per livestock category, LSU-weighted);
-
is the gross energy intake per LSU per year, in corresponding to the project-scenario stocking rate (IPCC 2019 Refinement Vol.4 Ch.10 Eq. 10.16, per livestock category, LSU-weighted);
-
(IPCC default);
-
is the 100-year Global Warming Potential of methane in , with an implicit conversion () folded into 's declared units;
-
is the number of years in the Reporting Period;
-
is the Reporting-Period methane deduction, in , applied only when Equation 18b fails.
Where Methane Neutrality status is achieved, the following applies:
- The proponent is not required to perform additional herd-level methane emission modeling or deductions for the reporting period, although these could be conducted for reporting purposes following the IPCC Tier 1 and Tier 2 methodologies.
- Methane emissions shall be considered "managed and stable" within the project baseline, thus no methane emissions deductions are imposed.
- To maintain this exemption, proponents must provide the weighted-average NDF data and grazing logs as evidence that the dietary quality thresholds were maintained across all herds.
Where Methane Neutrality status is not achieved:
- Methane emissions must be explicitly quantified and compared against the baseline. The proponent must utilize a high-tier modeling approach to determine the emission increase. This must be conducted following IPCC Tier 2/3 protocols or the Niu et al.5 predictive equations, or another peer-reviewed and justified alternative model.
- Any calculated increase in methane emissions relative to the baseline must be subtracted as a deduction from the total carbon credits generated by the project for that reporting period.
Estimation of Methane Conversion Factor
The primary metric for determining methane intensity is the concentration of Neutral Detergent Fiber (NDF). NDF is a measure of the structural components in the forage, which tends to increase with forage age. High concentration of NDF lead to longer fermentation duration increasing the methane emitted. Additional measures such as the Water Soluble Carbon (WSC) could be detected.
The NDF must be estimated using RS-derived data, the following minimum standards must be met:
- Imagery must be sourced from multispectral or hyperspectral sensors with a spatial resolution of 30 meters (e.g., Sentinel-2, Landsat 8/9, or commercial equivalents).
- Any algorithm or model used to translate spectral reflectance into NDF values must demonstrate a correlation () when cross-validated against local laboratory "wet chemistry" samples or standardized NIR (Near-Infrared) spectral libraries. This should include samples that span the range observed in the project fields.
- Data must be processed at a frequency that captures significant phenological shifts in forage quality, at a minimum of once per month during the growing season or aligned with harvest/grazing rotations.
Calculation of Spatial and Temporal Averages
Because livestock consume forage across diverse management units, a single project-wide average is insufficient. Instead, the project must calculate a Weighted Functional Average based on the following:
- Zonal Mean: Forage quality parameters (NDF, WSC, CP) must be calculated as the mean value of pixels within a defined management unit (paddock or field).
- Time-Weighting: The final value used for methane modeling must be a weighted average reflecting the proportion of fodder/silage consumed from each fields. This should be calculated using a weighted average reflecting the livestock stocking units and time spent in each field.
As an example for NDF, which could also be used for other measures, the weighted functional average is calculated as follows:
(Equation 19)
Where:
- indexes time bins within the averaging window, ;
- is the number of time bins (e.g. months) within the relevant averaging window (5 pre-project years for ; the Reporting Period for );
- indexes herd, ;
- is the number of herds present in the relevant period;
- indexes field/grazing area, ;
- is the total number of fields/grazing areas in the Project Area;
- is the field-level zonal-mean NDF in field at time bin , in ;
- is the count of Livestock Stocking Units in herd , in (a count, not a density);
- is the number of days herd spent grazing in (or fed from) field during time bin , in ;
- is the weighted-functional-average NDF, in .
Determination of the Methane Conversion Factor
The project must utilize the monitored NDF data to determine the through one of the following hierarchical pathways:
- Standard Pathway (IPCC): Proponents may adopt the updated default values from the IPCC 2019 Refinement, utilizing the RS-derived NDF to justify the selection of "High Quality" vs. "Low Quality" diet categories.
- Advanced Pathway (Niu et al.5): Proponents may utilize the predictive equation developed by Niu et al.5 to calculate a dynamic based on NDF and fermentable carbohydrates (WSC/Starch).
- Alternative Models: The use of alternative Tier 3 enteric models is permitted provided the proponent provides a written justification demonstrating that the alternative model is better suited to the specific geography, livestock breed, or forage species of the project area, and is supported by peer-reviewed literature.
Nitrous Oxide Emissions Due to Livestock
The quantification of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions is a requirement of this methodology to ensure a comprehensive net carbon balance. Nitrous oxide is a highly potent greenhouse gas. Project activities that increase Livestock Units (LSU) or improve forage quality (measured via Crude Protein) inevitably increase the volume of nitrogen (N) entering the soil via animal excreta (urine and dung). In grazing systems, this deposited nitrogen is the primary precursor for N2O production through the microbial processes of nitrification and denitrification.
The CO2e of nitrous oxide emissions due to the project activities shall be calculated for each reporting period following:
(Equation 20)
Where:
- — explicit annual integration step, so dimensions reconcile;
- in (per Equation 2b);
- and in ;
- is the combined direct + indirect N₂O emission factor for nitrogen deposited on pasture, range, and paddock, in (IPCC 2019 Refinement Vol.4 Ch.11 + + );
- is the Project Area, in ;
- is the molar mass ratio converting to ;
- is the 100-year GWP of N₂O consistent with the parent Protocol's GWP register, in , with an implicit conversion () folded into 's declared units;
- is the Reporting-Period N₂O deduction, in .
The nitrogen intake of grazing livestock is directly linked to the crude protein (CP) content of the forage they consume. The CP must be estimated using RS-derived data, the following minimum standards must be met:
- Imagery must be sourced from multispectral or hyperspectral sensors with a spatial resolution of 30 meters (e.g., Sentinel-2, Landsat 8/9, or commercial equivalents).
- Any algorithm or model used to translate spectral reflectance into CP values must demonstrate a correlation () when cross-validated against local laboratory "wet chemistry" samples or standardized NIR (Near-Infrared) spectral libraries. This should include samples that span the range observed in the project fields.
- Data must be processed at a frequency that captures significant phenological shifts in forage quality, at a minimum of once per month during the growing season or aligned with harvest/grazing rotations.
(Equation 21a)
(Equation 21b)
Where:
- denotes scenario (pre-project or project-scenario); each equation is applied separately under each scenario using the appropriate , , values for that scenario;
- indexes livestock category;
- indexes year (a calendar year in scenario );
- is the Dry Matter Intake per Livestock Unit for category in year , in (IPCC 2019 Refinement Vol.4 Ch.10 Table 10A.1 scaled to LSU, or measured);
- is the average Crude Protein content of the diet consumed by category in year , as a dimensionless mass fraction of dry matter (e.g. for 16 % CP). RS-derived where applicable, with the spatial average via the Weighted Functional Average (Equation 20);
- is the protein → nitrogen conversion factor (g protein per g N), dimensionless;
- is the fraction of nitrogen intake retained by livestock of category in year , dimensionless;
- , are in (consistent with the units required by Equation 19).
Dry Matter Intake (DMI) shall be determined using standardized animal physiological tables (e.g., IPCC 2019). These values shall be cross-referenced with remote-sensed biomass estimates to ensure that the total DMI does not exceed the available herbage mass within the project boundary.
Where category-specific cannot be evidenced, for the affected category must be set to (i.e. the highest IPCC default across categories present) and this conservative substitution must be documented in the Monitoring Report.
Net Carbon Quantification
The net removals are calculated following the requirements within the Improved Soil Management Protocol. Under this Module, the carbon storage () is considered to consist of soil organic carbon. Terms for aboveground and belowground woody biomass must be set to 0.
Calculation of CO2estored
The following calculations apply equally to both Quantification Approach 1 (direct measurement and remeasurement, Section 9.1.2) and Quantification Approach 2 (biogeochemical modeling with remeasurement, Section 9.1.3). They consume the stratum level SOC stock outputs from either approach and produce The Project-level total stock and cumulative stock change used for credit issuance.
The Project-level total carbon stock at any time is expressed as total carbon mass of soil organic carbon across all strata within the primary quantification unit:
(Equation 22)
Where:
- is The Project-level carbon stock at time in tonnes CO2e
- is the SOC stock in stratum at time in tonnes C ha-1
- is the area of stratum in ha
- is the total number of strata
- is the mass ratio for converting carbon to CO2e
is substituted as follows depending on the quantification approach and crediting event type. All substitution targets are calculated on an equivalent soil mineral mass (ESM) basis using the reduced cumulative-mass formulation across the depth increments required under Section 9.1.2.4, with a single stratum-level reference mineral mass and linear interpolation between increments as defined in Equations 18–19, and with parameters estimated from the sampled depth increments set out in that Section.
- Approach 1, all events: from Equation 127(ESM-corrected direct measurement on a mineral-mass basis).
- Approach 2, interim crediting events: from Equation 29 (mineral-mass model output using baseline reference mineral mass).
- Approach 2, true-up events: from Equation 22 (ESM-corrected mineral-mass model output using true-up-updated reference mineral mass; ).
The values of are then used in Equation 6 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol to derive the Reporting-Period change in stored carbon (), which feeds Equations 3 and 4 of the Protocol to calculate net removals ().
This module provides two options for quantification; measure and remeasure or measure and model with true-up. Project Proponents should document their indented quantification technique in the PDD.
Uncertainty Propagation
Uncertainty in the net CO2e removal estimate arises from multiple sources under both quantification approaches. All uncertainty must be propagated through the net CO2e removal calculation using Monte Carlo simulation, in accordance with the requirements below and the corresponding section of the Isometric Standard.
Monte Carlo simulation is required under this Module for the following reasons:
- It does not require the assumption that measurement or model errors are uncorrelated beyond the field level, making it more appropriate for the structured spatial and temporal error patterns present in both direct measurement campaigns and biogeochemical SOC models;
- It can directly estimate the correlation of errors across years, avoiding underestimation of uncertainty on shorter time horizons where annual errors may be positively correlated;
- Where implemented as a hierarchical bootstrap (see below), it requires minimal assumptions about the shape of the underlying data distributions, which is particularly important for paired SOC stock differences that are typically non-normal and exhibit short-range spatial autocorrelation.
Monte Carlo simulation must be implemented as follows:
- An appropriate number of iterations must be performed. Project Proponents must demonstrate convergence by showing that the uncertainty estimate does not materially change (> 1%) with additional iterations.
- Each iteration of the Monte Carlo simulation must be independent of other iterations. Within a given iteration, the sources of uncertainty contributing to the credit estimate must be sampled jointly, with correlations between sources preserved in accordance with the correlation requirements set out below; the requirement of inter-iteration independence does not imply that sources sampled within an iteration are independent of one another. The materially uncertain sources sampled at each iteration may include
- (i) input feature uncertainty, sampled from the probability distributions of materially uncertain inputs;
- (ii) model parameter or weight uncertainty, sampled from the posterior distribution for Bayesian models or via bootstrap resampling for frequentist methods;
- (iii) ensemble-member sampling, where the ensemble represents diversity in training data, hyperparameters, or architecture;
- or (iv) any combination of these, depending on which sources are material to the model in use. The relevant sources differ by approach as specified below.
- Input probability distributions must be justified with reference to empirical data or published literature and must not be assumed normal without justification. Where distributions are non-normal, appropriate alternative distributions must be used.
- Correlations between uncertain inputs must be explicitly assessed and, where material, accounted for through appropriate joint sampling procedures rather than assuming independence.
- The correlation structure of errors across time periods must be characterized and incorporated into the simulation, to avoid underestimation of cumulative uncertainty over multi-year Reporting Periods.
The following uncertain inputs must be characterized and included in the Monte Carlo simulation:
Both approaches: field sampling variance (derived from the observed standard deviation of within-location stock changes across paired measurements within each stratum), with appropriate adjustment for spatial autocorrelation among sampling locations such that the effective sample size used in standard-error calculations reflects the empirical SOC residual variogram (see Section 9.1.1.1 Hierarchical Bootstrap, Step 3); laboratory analytical uncertainty characterized in accordance with Section 9.1.2.7; ESM measurement uncertainty characterized separately and propagated jointly with SOC concentration uncertainty; and baseline measurement uncertainty at , which propagates through all subsequent cumulative delta calculations.
- In the event that any sampling locations are substituted during a given Reporting Period (see Section 9.1.2.2.4), the unpaired component of variance for these locations must be propagated separately from the paired component, with the two components using sample-count weighting. The procedure for this must be clearly documented.
- Survey uncertainty arising from estimating stratum-level mean SOC stocks from a finite sample of locations or modeled units within each stratum must also be characterized and propagated, distinct from per-location measurement and analytical uncertainty.
- Model-remeasure only: interim crediting events: model prediction error (characterized by RMSE from the validation dataset); where residuals are approximately symmetric (|skewness| ≤ 0.5), RMSE may be used as the basis for a symmetric error distribution; where significant skewness is detected under Section 9.1.3.2.3, model prediction error must instead be sampled from a fitted asymmetric distribution (e.g., empirical bootstrap of validation residuals or a parametric skew-normal distribution) that preserves the observed tail behavior parameterization uncertainty; and temporal error correlation across modeled time steps between resampling campaigns. Note that at interim events there is no measured ESM, so the reference ESM carries uncertainty from the original baseline measurement.
- Model-remeasure only: true-up events: model prediction error, characterized as set out above for interim crediting events and updated through the true-up procedure in Section 9.1.3.1.6, and parameterization uncertainty as similarly updated through the true-up procedure in Section 9.1.3.1.6. Measured ESM from the resampling campaign replaces the reference value, reducing uncertainty relative to interim events.
The conservative estimate used for credit issuance must correspond to the 30th percentile of the distribution of net CO2e removal estimates across all simulation iterations, in line with the Isometric standard. Where the 30th percentile estimate is negative, no credits may be issued for that Reporting Period.
Where model-based error propagation is used under Measure-Model, the coverage of model predictions must be evaluated at each true-up event. Where coverage is materially below the nominal confidence level, the input uncertainty distributions must be revised before the simulation is rerun. This requirement does not apply under Measure-Remeasure.
The uncertainty information reported at each verification must include the items specified in Section 7.5 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol, and must document which input distributions were used, the correlation structure assumed, and evidence of convergence.
Recommended Approach: Hierarchical Bootstrap
For propagating sampling and analytical uncertainty under both Approach 1 and Approach 2, Project Proponents are recommended to implement a hierarchical bootstrap Monte Carlo procedure, since it makes minimal assumptions about the shape of the underlying data distributions and naturally captures within-stratum and between-stratum variability. The procedure has three steps:
Step 1: Location resampling within strata. Within each stratum , resample sampling locations with replacement, drawing locations where is the number of sampling locations in stratum . Resampling is performed on locations (not on individual cores or depth increments), so that the paired structure ( and measurements at the same location) is preserved within each bootstrap iteration. Location resampling at stratum may only be applied where rarefaction analysis (see Step 4 below) demonstrates that supports stable estimates; otherwise The Project must fall back to a parametric Monte Carlo at the stratum level with explicit assumptions documented and reported at each Verification.
Step 2: Observation perturbation. For each resampled location, perturb the measured SOC concentration and soil mineral mass per depth increment by drawing from the analytical uncertainty distribution. Where a location is drawn more than once in a single bootstrap iteration, the same analytical perturbation must be applied to all repeated draws of that location, so that analytical noise is not double-counted as sampling variance. Where significant spatial autocorrelation is detected (see Step 3), the effective sample size replaces in the resampling count for that stratum.
Step 3: Spatial autocorrelation test. Within each stratum, test for spatial autocorrelation in the location-level paired SOC stock differences using Moran's or the empirical SOC residual variogram. Where significant autocorrelation is detected at the typical inter-location distance, compute an effective sample size for that stratum using a documented adjustment (e.g., Cressie's variance-inflation formula based on the fitted variogram), and substitute for in Step 1.
Step 4: Stratum and project aggregation. Compute the stratum-level mean SOC stock change from the resampled locations. Compute The Project-level mean as the area-weighted average of stratum-level means. Repeat steps 1–4 across iterations until the 30th-percentile estimate (see below) has converged within the 1% threshold of Section 9.1.1.
Parametric fallback. Where the number of sampling locations in a stratum is too small to support stable bootstrap estimates, or where the rarefaction analysis fails (see below), Project Proponents may fall back to a parametric Monte Carlo simulation under Section 9.1.1, drawing from a stratum-level distribution justified against empirical data or literature. The fallback must be flagged in the Monitoring Report and a conservative additional uncertainty penalty applied at Isometric's direction.
Approach 1 — Direct Measurement and Remeasurement
Direct measurement is used to quantify changes in SOC stocks under this approach. This approach is applicable where predictive models are unavailable, have not been validated for the relevant soil type or land management context, or have not been sufficiently parameterized for The Project area. Project Proponents may also elect to use direct measurement where they prefer not to rely on modeled outputs for SOC stock change quantification.
Under this approach, baseline SOC stocks within The Project Area are established through direct field measurement at project initiation () and re-measured at each subsequent Reporting Period. The counterfactual SOC trajectory is established through paired measurement of business-as-usual control plots, as set out in Section 9.2.1. This approach is applicable to the quantification of SOC stock changes and is not used for other GHG sources or sinks within the system boundary, which are quantified separately under Section 9.5 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol.
Soil Sampling Requirements
Project Proponents must document their soil sampling plan in the PDD.
Projects must apply QA/QC procedures for soil inventory covering all stages of field data collection and data management, document them in The Project Design Document, and apply them consistently across all Reporting Periods.
Project Proponents are encouraged to directly adopt or adapt QA/QC procedures from established published frameworks, including those produced by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and available via the FAO Soils Portal, the ISO soil sampling standards (including ISO 18400-104: Soil Quality - Sampling - Part 104: Strategies), or the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (2003).
For all directly sampled parameters, The Project Design Document must:
- Clearly delineate the spatial extent of the sample population;
- Specify sampling intensities, quantification unit selection criteria, and sampling stages where a multi-stage design is applied;
- Identify unbiased estimators of population parameters for use in all calculations; and
- Include a statistical analysis plan, submitted as part of the sampling plan at project validation.
The following requirements apply to all sampling and re-sampling campaigns:
- Sample locations must be georeferenced to a horizontal accuracy of 15 m (or better) to enable re-sampling at the sampling locations set at project initiation during subsequent Reporting Periods;
- At each re-sampling, samples must be collected within a 15 m radius of the initial location set at project initiation, making sure to avoid the exact location of any prior sampling disturbance, with the coordinates of the new sample collected and recorded in the Monitoring Report;
- Intra-annual variability must be considered in the sampling design, and all sampling and re-sampling campaigns must be conducted during the same phenological/seasonal stage (e.g., same point in the growing season or grazing rotation cycle (e.g., peak biomass, dormancy, or a fixed point relative to the rotational grazing schedule) and within +/- 30 days across Reporting Periods to ensure comparability;
- Where organic amendments (e.g., slurry, manure, compost) are applied to the grazing land, Project Proponents must delay sampling or re-sampling to the latest practicable point after the previous application and the earliest practicable point before the next application. In addition, sampling and re-sampling must be timed relative to grazing management to minimize confounding effects on measured SOC stocks: sampling must not be conducted while livestock are present in the sampling unit, and must be delayed to the latest practicable point after the most recent grazing event or destocking. Where the grazing system results in spatially concentrated dung and urine deposition (e.g., around water points, feeding areas, or stock camps), the sampling design must avoid these localized deposition zones, and the timing and animal-management context of each campaign must be recorded and held consistent across Reporting Periods.
- Sample locations should avoid areas subject to localized effects that would render them unrepresentative of the stratum as a whole. On grazing land these include zones of concentrated dung and urine deposition or trampling, such as stock camps and loafing areas, water points and troughs, supplementary feeding sites, mineral licks, livestock trails, gateways, and areas around shade trees and fence lines, as well as pasture margins. Because such hotspots have a stronger and more spatially clustered effect on SOC than the equivalent features in cropland, the sampling design must give particular attention to identifying and excluding them. Any such exclusions must be clearly disclosed, justified, and spatially documented.
Sampling Design and Stratification
Sampling must be designed to produce an unbiased, statistically defensible estimate of SOC stocks and stock changes at The Project level, with a transparent and reproducible link between sampling locations and the population they represent. The choice of design is determined by The Project Proponent and justified at validation against The Project's quantification approach, the heterogeneity of The Project area, and the expected precision of The Project-level estimate. The Module specifies a default design but does not mandate sub-field stratification or any particular set of stratification factors where a simpler design can be justified to deliver equivalent or better project-level precision.
Quantification Units
The Project Proponent must define a hierarchy of quantification units in The Project Monitoring Plan. At minimum, this must specify:
- The primary quantification unit: the unit at which credits are issued and uncertainty is reported. This is typically The Project Area or, for grouped projects, an enrolled property or farm.
- The sampling unit: the unit at which sampling locations are selected and at which a single SOC stock estimate is generated. Sampling units must nest within primary quantification units.
- Where applicable, intermediate units (e.g., field, management zone) used to organize the design.
The choice of units must reflect the management, soil, and climatic heterogeneity of The Project area and the practical constraints of sampling, including for projects involving smallholders. Sub-field stratification is not required where a coarser unit can be shown to deliver equivalent or better project-level precision.
Sampling Design
The sampling design must be tailored to the specific Project and appropriate to its context, reflecting the soil, vegetation, climatic, and management heterogeneity of the project area, the intended estimator, and the practical constraints of sampling. The default sampling design is stratified random sampling, in which each sampling unit is divided into strata more homogeneous in expected SOC than the unit as a whole. Project Proponents may instead propose:
- Conditioned Latin hypercube sampling (cLHS) or other covariate-informed probability sampling designs, where ancillary variables (e.g., elevation, slope, remote-sensed indices, digital soil maps) are available and shown to correlate with SOC stocks; or
- Model-based sampling designs (e.g., spatial coverage sampling, geostatistical designs) where The Project intends to use a model-based estimator at The Project level.
- Other probability-based or model-based sampling designs, including spatially balanced probability designs such as Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) sampling, that satisfy the probability-sampling requirement, documented and justified with reference to peer-reviewed literature.
Any design must be documented in The Project Design Document and justified with reference to peer-reviewed literature. Grid sampling and unstratified simple random sampling are not permitted. Project Proponents should consider, as part of the design choice, the robustness of the design to anticipated point-level data loss arising from withdrawal, sampling-access loss, or laboratory error. A design with a large number of fine-grained strata can be more sensitive to such losses than a coarser design.
Stratification Factors
Strata, where used, must be delineated using the best available data on factors that influence SOC stock distribution and the response of SOC to project activities. The factors set out in this paragraph are illustrative of those typically relevant at field (10–100 ha) and landscape (100–1000 ha) scales including climate, topography, historical land use and vegetation, parent material, soil texture, and soil type. On grazing land, factors influencing the distribution of SOC and its response to project activities also include stocking rate and grazing intensity, grazing regime (e.g., continuous versus rotational or adaptive management), pasture or forage type and species composition, and whether the land is improved pasture or native rangeland. Where available, remote-sensed indicators such as bare-soil reflectance composites or vegetation indices may also be used, although these are not mandatory.
Project Proponents must select stratification factors based on their relevance to the specific project's heterogeneity and quantification approach, recognizing that adding additional less relevant factors yields diminishing precision returns and increases the risk that strata fall below the three-samples-per-stratum minimum. Soil maps and databases including the FAO Soils Portal, SoilGrids, or locally available digital soil maps may be used to inform stratum delineation. Field boundaries should be considered where management history aligns with them.
Where stratified random sampling is used in a paired-difference design (i.e., the same locations are resampled across Reporting Periods), stratification factors should be selected for their expected influence on the rate of SOC change under project management, not on absolute baseline SOC levels. Within-location baseline absolute SOC largely cancels out in the paired difference; residual within-stratum variance is dominated by heterogeneity in grazing intensity, climate, soil texture, and initial SOC saturation. Where The Project area is homogeneous in these factors, a coarser sampling unit may deliver equivalent project-level precision to a finely stratified design.
Missed and Substituted Samples during Re-Sampling
Project Proponents must use the sample design set at project initiation for sampling during subsequent Reporting Periods. Sampling locations may be substituted over the course of The Project Commitment Period only when there are documented barriers, including:
- Loss of contractual access (e.g., disenrollment of a property)
- Active hazards that prevent access to sampling site (e.g., natural disaster)
In such a scenario, the sampling location must be replaced with another location in the same stratum selected using the same probability sampling rule that was applied at project initiation. The substitution must be clearly documented in the Monitoring Report for review as part of the subsequent Verification. Uncertainty associated with the substitution also must be accounted for following the requirements in Section 9.1.1. This substitute sampling point must then be used for the remainder of the Reporting Period.
Project Proponents must track all substitutions over the entire Project Commitment Period. If the number of substitutions within a single stratum exceeds 15% of sampling points within that stratum within a single Reporting Period, or cumulatively exceeds 25% of the sampling points within that stratum over The Project Commitment Period, the stratum must be re-evaluated in accordance with Section 9.1.2.2.5.
If the sampling location is only temporarily inaccessible (e.g., temporary flooding) or data collection was missed because of a documented operational issue (e.g., unforeseen capacity issues that did not allow sampling in the temporal window), the sampling location will be considered missing for the given Reporting Period. These locations may be excluded from the stratum-level paired-difference calculation for that Reporting Period and uncertainty appropriately handled. These missing sampling points must be clearly documented at the relevant Verification. If data are missing for a sampling location during a second consecutive Reporting Period, the sampling point must be substituted.
Redefining Strata
Strata must be defined to support direct comparison of SOC stocks across Reporting Periods. Project Proponents may re-aggregate, split, or otherwise revise strata at a Reporting Period where this improves project-level precision, where field divergence under management has rendered the original stratification non-homogeneous, or where additional data has become available. Any change must:
- Preserve a documented mapping between the previous and revised stratification, so that prior measurements can be reconciled to the new design;
- Demonstrate that the revised design does not selectively exclude areas of expected SOC loss; and
- Be reported in the Monitoring Report and approved at verification.
Project-specific strata, their areas, the sampling locations within each, and any revisions across Reporting Periods must be reported as an annex to project documentation at every verification.
Sample Size Determination
The requirements of this Section govern the design of the sampling campaign and, specifically, whether the campaign supports reliable estimation of the change in SOC stocks within each stratum. They do not determine the size of the uncertainty discount applied to issued credits, which is set separately under Section 9.1.1. Project Proponents are recommended to conduct a formal power analysis to set the number of samples at design stage; a recommended minimum-detectable-difference (MDD) power-analysis procedure is set out in Appendix E. This procedure can help ensure a well-powered design that can decrease the associated uncertainty.
A minimum of three composite samples per stratum is required as an absolute floor to support variance estimation, since a within-stratum standard deviation cannot be computed from fewer than three observations. This minimum enables estimation only; it is not a representation of the sample size needed for a well-powered design, which is determined by the rarefaction analysis below (and, as a design aid, by the recommended power analysis in Appendix E) and is typically substantially larger. Strata containing fewer than three samples must be pooled with the most similar neighboring stratum for estimation, following a documented and reproducible pooling rule.
Beginning at the first re-sampling event (), Project Proponents must conduct a rarefaction analysis to demonstrate empirically that each stratum's sample count supports stable estimates of the mean SOC stock change. The rarefaction procedure is:
- For each stratum, compute the bootstrap mean of the location-level paired SOC stock difference using progressively larger random subsets of the available sampling locations, starting from a minimum subset of 5 locations and increasing in increments of 1 (or 5, where the stratum contains > 50 locations) up to the full sample set.
- Repeat each subsample size at least 200 times to generate a distribution of bootstrap means at each subsample size.
- Identify the smallest sample size at which the width of the 70% confidence interval of the bootstrap mean changes by less than 5% of the overall observed range of in the stratum, for all subsequent increments and continues to do so for every larger subsample size tested (i.e. the confidence-interval width has plateaued). The stratum passes the rarefaction analysis where such an exists and . The stratum's design sample size for subsequent Reporting Periods must equal or exceed .
Where any stratum fails the rarefaction criterion (no exists or ), location resampling under Section 9.1.1 Step 1 is not permitted for that stratum at that event, and the parametric fallback under Section 9.1.1 applies. The Project Proponent must increase the design sample size to at least (or, where could not be identified, conduct a power analysis under [Appendix E]) for the next Reporting Period.
Sampling Depth and Equivalent Soil Mass
SOC stocks and stock changes must be reported to a common depth across all sampling locations, of a minimum of 30 cm, or to bedrock, hardpan, or other physical barriers where soils are shallower than 30 cm. A greater common depth may be selected by The Project Proponent (for example, 40 cm), in which case all sampling locations (with exceptions for locations where physical barriers are documented) must be sampled to that depth and the credited profile extends accordingly. The elected sampling depth must be documented and justified at validation.
Soils must be sampled using a minimum of two depth increments across the sampled profile at all sampling locations. The number of increments and the depths at which the profile is subdivided may be selected by The Project Proponent, provided at least two increments are used and the choice is documented and justified at validation (for example, with reference to expected vertical distribution of SOC change, soil horizons, rooting depth, or tillage depth). A default subdivision of 0–15 cm and 15–30 cm is recommended where The Project Proponent has no project-specific basis for an alternative. Where soils at a location are shallower than the sampled depth, the deepest increment must be reported to the sampled depth and documented. SOC content analysis may be performed on a single composited sample per increment provided soil mass data are recorded separately for each increment.
Projects must apply an ESM correction. The ESM correction must be applied across all sampled depth increments using soil mass data from all sampling locations.
For sampling events post-project initiation, this may require extension (up to 10 cm) to a further depth in order to capture the mass established at project initiation. The actual depth of collection must be recorded and reported, and the additional mineral mass below the nominal increment boundary must be included in the ESM correction calculation for the deepest increment. Where a 10 cm additional buffer does not capture an equivalent mass of soil compared to project initiation, the deepest increment must be reported on a fixed-depth basis and documented as such. Note that, for ESM purposes, baseline (t0) measurements do not require a required increment to be sub-divided into finer layers; each increment is measured as a single sample at baseline. The reference mineral mass so established governs any finer slicing or depth extension needed to recover the equivalent mass at subsequent sampling events.
The credited cumulative SOC stock change must be calculated on this basis.
Sample Collection and Processing
Soil sampling must follow established best practices for field collection and laboratory processing.
The following requirements apply:
- Both the intended and actual sampling point locations must be recorded and georeferenced.
- SOC content, oven-dry fine soil mass, and sample volume must be obtained from the same sample or from adjacent samples taken during the same sampling event, if the sample size is insufficient. Where multiple cores are combined into a single sample, all cores must be taken from the same depth and fully homogenized prior to subsampling for the different measurements and this must be disclosed in the documentation of the sampling procedures.
- Soil cores must be collected using equipment of documented cross-sectional area. The auger or core diameter and cross-sectional area used at each sampling event must be recorded and reported at each Verification event. Core dimensions must be held constant across all sampling events within a project, including between baseline and all subsequent remeasurement campaigns. Where a change in core dimensions is unavoidable, The Project Proponent must document the change, demonstrate that sampled volumes remain comparable, and propagate any resulting volume uncertainty through the ESM correction and the Section 9.1.1 Monte Carlo simulation.
All organic material (e.g., living plants, litter/thatch, root mat and dung) must be cleared from the soil surface prior to sampling. This must be documented via a photograph taken after sample removal.
- SOC stocks within each stratum must be calculated on an equivalent soil mineral mass (ESM) basis. Use of soil mineral mass, rather than fine soil mass, ensures that the reference quantity against which SOC stocks are normalized is itself insensitive to changes in soil organic matter content driven by project activities. Sampling events are denoted , where is the baseline measurement at project initiation and ... are subsequent resampling events.
Fine soil mass per unit area. For each depth increment in stratum at sampling event , the oven-dry fine soil mass per unit area is:
(Equation 23)
Where:
- is the oven-dry fine soil mass per unit area in depth increment of stratum at sampling event (kg m⁻²);
- is the oven-dry mass of the fine (< 2 mm) soil recovered for that increment (), after exclusion of coarse material retained on the 2 mm sieve;
- is the internal diameter of the auger or corer (mm);
- is the number of cores composited into the sample, such that is the total cross-sectional area sampled (mm²);
- the factor 1000 converts g m⁻² to kg m⁻².
Coarse material must be prevented from passing through the 2 mm sieve. Deriving the fine soil mass per unit area directly from sample mass and corer cross-sectional area in this way eliminates the need for independent bulk-density sampling and the imprecision associated with it (Wendt & Hauser 2013). This is the reason core dimensions () and the compositing design (N) must be documented and held constant across sampling events.
Soil mineral mass per unit area. The soil mineral mass per unit area for each depth increment is derived from the fine soil mass per unit area, adjusted to exclude the mass of soil organic matter:
(Equation 24)
Where:
- is the oven-dry fine soil mass per unit area as derived in Equation 23 (kg m⁻²);
- is the measured SOC concentration in that increment (g C kg⁻¹ fine soil); and
- 1.724 is the van Bemmelen conversion factor from organic carbon mass to organic matter mass. Where Project Proponents have project-area-specific data on the carbon fraction of soil organic matter, that value may be substituted for 1.724 with justification at validation. This protocol is only scoped to mineral soils.
Sampled volume, where required, is the product of the cross-sectional area sampled and the increment depth. ESM, where reported, is a derived quantity calculated as the oven-dry fine soil mass divided by the sampled volume; it is used only for reporting and diagnostic purposes. Neither bulk density nor sampled volume is used as a direct input for the quantification calculations.
Drying and sieving procedures must follow laboratory-specific standard operating procedures (SOPs) and must be applied consistently across all samples throughout The Project lifetime, including where there is a change in analytical laboratory. Sample processing procedures must be reported in detail, explicitly describing sieving and grinding procedures.
"Composite" in this Section refers to the physical homogenization of multiple cores collected at a single sampling location, prior to laboratory analysis. The composite is the analytical sample; the sampling location is the statistical unit. Pairwise SOC stock differences computed at the sampling-location level (the difference between the composite measurement at and at ) are the basis for stratum-level variance estimation in Section 9.1.2.3. Project Proponents are not required to physically pool samples across sampling locations or across strata at any point.
Composite sample (composite). A single analytical sample formed by physically combining and fully homogenizing two or more soil cores collected at the same sampling location and from the same depth increment, prior to laboratory analysis or subsampling. The composite sample is the analytical unit, the specimen on which SOC concentration and soil mass are measured, whereas the sampling location is the statistical unit at which SOC stocks are estimated and at which paired ( vs ) stock differences are computed for variance estimation under Section 9.1.2.3.
Compositing is a physical operation and is distinct from statistical pooling. Cores must not be combined across different sampling locations, across different depth increments, or across strata. Where cores are composited, all constituent cores must derive from the same sampling location and the same depth increment and must be fully homogenized before any subsampling for separate measurements; soil mass data must be recorded separately for each depth increment even where SOC content is determined on a single composite per increment (Section 9.1.2.4).
Sample Handling and Storage
Following sampling, samples may be temporarily stored on-site in a location protected from sunlight, humidity, and precipitation, with different soil materials kept separate. Soil samples must be shipped within five days, or stably stored (e.g., dried or refrigerated, but not frozen) in a way that will be maintained until analysis. Once shipped, samples must be stored under environmentally controlled conditions that minimize biological activity (e.g., dried or refrigerated, but not frozen) until analysis. The duration of refrigerated storage prior to analysis must not exceed three months.
Sample archiving
Project Proponents must retain archived subsamples to enable future cross-calibration and audit. A dried, sieved (<2 mm) archive subsample must be retained from every baseline () sampling location and from a minimum of 5% of sampling locations in each subsequent campaign, each with sufficient mass for at least one full dry-combustion re-analysis. Archived samples must be stored air- or oven-dried (drying temperature ≤40 °C), in sealed, labelled, inert containers, under cool, dry, dark conditions protected from moisture, contamination, and pests, and retained for the duration of the Project Commitment Period. Where archived samples are unavailable, including for project years predating this requirement, cross-calibration on a laboratory transition must instead be performed using certified reference materials and shared independent reference soils spanning the project's soil types and SOC range, with a conservative additional analytical uncertainty applied and propagated through the Monte Carlo simulation.
Analytical Laboratory Requirements
The selected analytical laboratory must be listed as an approved analytical service provider for SOC measurements in accordance with national or international accreditation standards. The laboratory must hold ISO/IEC 17025 accreditation or operate under a documented equivalent quality assurance framework. Where an equivalent framework is relied upon, The Project Proponent must demonstrate equivalence to ISO/IEC 17025, addressing, at a minimum, method validation, measurement traceability, internal quality control, personnel competence, and proficiency testing, and this demonstration will be reviewed and accepted at project validation.
All samples collected throughout The Project lifetime should be analyzed by the same laboratory wherever practicable. A transition to a different laboratory is permitted, including in cases where the incumbent laboratory is no longer able or willing to process project samples, provided that:
- The change is justified in writing and documented for review at the subsequent verification;
- The replacement laboratory satisfies the accreditation requirements set out above; and
- A documented cross-calibration procedure is completed prior to the new laboratory's results being used for quantification. The cross-calibration must involve parallel analysis of a representative set of samples (including, where available, archived samples and certified reference materials) by both laboratories. The cross-calibration passes where, across the parallel-analyzed set, the mean relative bias between laboratories is within ±5% (or within the certification uncertainty of the certified reference materials used, whichever is greater) and the precision, expressed as the relative standard deviation of paired results, is within 10%. Where either threshold is exceeded, the systematic offset must be addressed through method alignment or a documented correction before the new laboratory's results are used, and any residual uncertainty propagated through the Monte Carlo simulation. The cross-calibration report must be submitted as part of project documentation.
The selected laboratory must quantify and report analytical error statistics to The Project Proponent on a regular basis, derived from repeated analyses of the same sample and from analyses of certified reference materials. The laboratory must provide documentation of its internal quality control program, including:
- Use of certified soil reference materials with known SOC content (e.g., NIST SRM 2710, BCR-129, or an equivalent traceable certified reference material appropriate for the SOC content range of The Project samples);
- Monitoring of variation in analysis against defined error thresholds; and
- Participation in external proficiency testing schemes (e.g., round-robin testing) or registration as a member of the Global Soil Laboratory Network (GLOSOLAN), or an equivalent nationally recognized program.
For the purposes of this Section, an analytical batch is the set of project samples analyzed together under a single instrument calibration and quality-control bracket, as defined in the laboratory's standard operating procedures. An analytical campaign is the set of all project samples analyzed under the same analytical method and calibration regime within a single Reporting Period. The batch and campaign membership of every project sample must be documented and auditable. Each analytical batch must include at least one certified reference material appropriate to the SOC content range of the project samples.
Quantification of analytical uncertainty for Monte Carlo propagation. For each analytical campaign, the analytical uncertainty distribution used to perturb SOC concentration measurements in the Monte Carlo simulation (Section 9.1.1) must be characterized as follows:
-
Systematic bias correction. For each analytical batch, identify any systematic bias in the analytical run against the certified reference material(s), expressed as the mean signed difference between measured and certified SOC values. Where systematic bias exceeds the CRM's certification uncertainty, project sample measurements must be corrected for the bias and the residual uncertainty (after correction) documented in the Monitoring Report.
-
Random error characterization. The random analytical error must be characterized at the campaign level as the greater of:
- (i) the relative standard deviation (RSD) of certified reference material recovery across the campaign, i.e., the standard deviation of CRM measurements divided by the certified value; or
- (ii) the relative standard deviation of laboratory duplicate analyses across the campaign, expressed as a fraction of the measured value.
A minimum of 5% of project samples across each campaign must be analyzed as laboratory duplicates, with a minimum of three duplicates per campaign.
-
Monte Carlo input distribution. The random error from Step 2 must be used to parameterize a mean-zero perturbation around each measured SOC concentration value within the Monte Carlo simulation under Section 9.1.1. The distribution may be assumed Gaussian provided the laboratory's quality-control data support this assumption; where the duplicate/CRM distribution is materially non-Gaussian, the empirical distribution must be used directly via inverse-transform sampling or a documented alternative.
The Project Proponent must retain run-level analytical data for all project samples, including individual measurement results, replicate analyses, calibration records, reference material results, and associated QC flags, and ensure data is available for audit by Isometric or a VVB. Quality control documentation, together with any cross-calibration reports, must be submitted as an annex to project documentation at each verification.
Where a Project Proponent utilizes an accredited laboratory for all analyses, The Project Proponent must provide raw data files to Isometric and the VVB, if requested.
Third Party Validation
Where a Project Proponent utilizes laboratory facilities within an academic institution or a non-accredited commercial laboratory, this Protocol requires that 10% of samples are sent to an accredited laboratory for validation. External laboratory validation is required for both quantification and validation samples in this scenario. The analyses conducted by the third party lab must be sufficient to calculate gross CDR and confirm the analytical results of the academic or non-accredited institution.
Prior to data submission, The Project Proponent is required to identify the sampling locations that will be sent to a third part laboratory to Isometric and the VVB for approval. The third party facility must be approved by Isometric. Data from the third party validation must be sent directly to Isometric from the accredited laboratory.
If the results of the third party validation show significant discrepancies with the overall dataset, an audit will be conducted by Isometric and the VVB. As part of this audit, Isometric or the VVB may request that additional samples are sent for third party validation. In this instance, Isometric or the VVB will select the samples for validation. Other materials that may be requested in an audit include:
- Run logs of analytical instruments within the academic or non-accredited facility;
- Information on sample preparation, such as laboratory notebooks and SOPs;
- Chain of custody of the samples analyzed;
- Raw, uncorrected data files for each sample analyzed.
Sample Measurement
Project Proponents must include their sample analysis plan in the PDD.
SOC content must be measured using dry combustion (Dumas method) with known and reported measurement uncertainty from the specific analytical run (i.e., default values not accepted).
Walkley-Black (wet) oxidation and loss on ignition (LOI) are not permitted except where no other analytical method is available, in which case their use must be justified in The Project Monitoring Plan and approved at validation. Approval may require a subset of samples to be sent for analysis using dry combustion for calibration and validation of these methods. Project Proponents must document the known limitations of these methods and apply appropriate uncertainty adjustments to the resulting SOC stock estimates.
Proximal Sensing Techniques
In-situ proximal sensing techniques may be used as alternatives or complements to laboratory dry combustion analysis for the quantification of SOC. Dry combustion remains the reference method against which all proximal sensing measurements are anchored. The following techniques are permitted under this Module, subject to the requirements below:
- Infrared spectroscopy, including near infrared (NIR), visible near infrared (Vis-NIR), and mid-infrared spectroscopy (MIR);
- Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS); and
- Inelastic neutron scattering (INS, also known as neutron-stimulated gamma ray analysis or spectroscopy).
Prior to use for credit-relevant measurements, the Project Proponent must demonstrate, to Isometric's satisfaction and for review at Project Validation, that the selected technique is fit for purpose under one of the two pathways below. A technique that qualifies under either pathway is permitted.
Pathway A — Published equivalence
The Project Proponent demonstrates, through published, peer-reviewed evidence, that the technique achieves accuracy and reliability comparable to dry combustion for the soil types, moisture conditions, and SOC content ranges present in the project area. Under this pathway, instruments and calibration models must be calibrated against project-area reference samples measured by dry combustion, following methods described in peer-reviewed literature and repeated at defined intervals over the project lifetime, and validated against independent reference samples not used in model development, with acceptance thresholds consistent with those reported in peer-reviewed literature.
Pathway B — Project-specific validation
The Project Proponent demonstrates accuracy on the project's own soils, validated against a representative set of the project's samples measured by dry combustion, without reliance on published equivalence. Under this pathway:
- Commercial or library-based calibration models may be used; per-instrument recalibration against project samples is not required.
- A representative reference set of project samples, spanning the soil types, moisture conditions, and SOC content ranges of the project area, must be measured by dry combustion.
- Before use for crediting, the technique's predictions must be checked against this reference set and must meet accuracy and bias targets that are pre-registered for the project's conditions and reviewed by the VVB. The check rests on the project's own data and need not cite published studies.
- Any systematic offset identified must be corrected to the dry-combustion values before the predictions are used.
- Samples falling outside the range that the calibration model can reliably predict must be measured by dry combustion.
For both pathways:
- Uncertainty. The measurement uncertainty of the technique must be fully quantified and propagated through the entire removal calculation in accordance with Section 7.6 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol. Where proximal sensing uncertainty exceeds that achievable through laboratory dry combustion, the more conservative estimate must be used for credit issuance; a less precise method is not excluded, but yields fewer credits.
- Ongoing verification and re-validation. A subset of proximal sensing measurements must be independently verified by laboratory dry combustion at each Reporting Period. The fit-for-purpose demonstration under Pathway A or Pathway B must be repeated at each measurement campaign and whenever the instrument, calibration model, or laboratory changes, with a portion of samples re-confirmed by dry combustion.
SOC Stock Calculation (Approach 1)
The ESM-corrected SOC stock density is obtained by expressing cumulative SOC mass as a function of cumulative soil mineral mass and evaluating it, by linear interpolation between measured increments, at a fixed reference mineral mass common to all sampling events. This is the reduced cumulative-mass formulation common to the methods of Gifford & Roderick[^10] and Ellert & Bettany10 as set out in Wendt & Hauser11. A single method is prescribed and conservatism is applied at the crediting step (the 30th-percentile estimate under Section 9.1.1).
Increment quantities. For each depth increment in stratum at sampling event , and at each sampling location, compute the soil mineral mass per unit area (Equation 24) and the SOC mass per unit area:
(Equation 25)
where is the measured SOC concentration (g C kg⁻¹ fine soil), is the fine soil mass per unit area (Equation 23, kg m⁻²), and is the SOC mass per unit area for the increment (g C m⁻²).
Cumulative profiles. At each sampling location, accumulate mineral mass and SOC mass from the soil surface to the bottom of each increment :
Reference mineral mass. Define the reference soil mineral mass for stratum as the minimum, across all sampling events, of the total cumulative soil mineral mass of the stratum-mean profile:
(Equation 26)
where is the total number of depth increments sampled (common to all sampling locations and all sampling events; see Section 9.1.2.4) and is the mean, across all sampling locations in stratum , of the increment- mineral mass at event . Taking the across-event minimum guarantees that the reference mass lies within the sampled stratum-mean column at every event, so no extrapolation beyond the measured profile is required11. At the sampling event that yields the minimum, the reference mass equals the stratum-mean profile total and the ESM correction ratio for the stratum-mean profile is unity.
ESM-corrected stock density. Let aa a be the deepest increment whose cumulative mineral mass does not exceed the reference mass, and let be the increment within which the reference mass falls:
The ESM-corrected SOC stock density at a sampling location in stratum at sampling event is then:
(Equation 27)
Where:
- is the ESM-corrected SOC stock density in stratum at sampling event (t C ha⁻¹);
- is the cumulative SOC mass to the bottom of increment (g C m⁻²);
- is the cumulative soil mineral mass to the bottom of increment (kg m⁻²);
- is the ratio of SOC mass to soil mineral mass within increment , used as the interpolation slope across that increment (g C kg⁻¹ mineral soil). This is distinct from the measured SOC concentration , which is expressed per fine soil;
- is the reference soil mineral mass (Equation 26, kg m⁻²);
- the factor converts g C m⁻² to t C ha⁻¹.
When the reference mass equals or exceeds the location's full profile mineral mass, increment bb b does not exist, and the interpolation term is set to zero; Equation 27 reduces to the location's full-profile SOC mass divided by 100.
Where the profile is sampled as a single depth increment (), set with both cumulative sums equal to zero; Equation 27 then reduces to the single-layer ESM correction:
(Equation 28)
The same equation therefore serves both single-layer and multiple-layer assessments. (Under Section 9.1.2.4 a minimum of two depth increments is required at project sampling events; the reduction is retained for completeness and for the baseline case described below.)
Estimation and aggregation across locations. The reference soil mineral mass (Equation 26) is a stratum-level constant defined on the stratum-mean mineral profile. Equation 26 must be evaluated at each sampling location, using that location's own cumulative SOC and mineral masses against the common stratum reference . The stratum-level stock carried into Equation 30 is the mean of the location-level values across all sampling locations in the stratum. Evaluating Equation 26 at the location level is required so that the location-level paired stock differences used in the rarefaction analysis (Section 9.1.2.3) and the hierarchical bootstrap (Section 9.1.1) are defined consistently with the crediting point estimate.
Where an individual location's total profile mineral mass at an event is less than (which can arise because the reference is defined on the stratum mean) that location's cumulative SOC mass must be evaluated at its own profile total (that is, a is set to the location's deepest increment and the interpolation term is zero) rather than extrapolated beyond the measured column. This truncation omits any SOC that would lie between the location's profile total and the reference mass and is therefore conservative for crediting. Each occurrence must be documented at Verification, and where truncation recurs at the same location across consecutive sampling events that location must be sampled to greater depth at the next campaign so that the measured column reaches the reference mass.
Linear interpolation yields an approximately unbiased point estimate of the ESM-corrected stock provided increments are thin enough that the SOC–mineral-mass relationship is close to linear within each increment; the point estimate must be incorporated into the Monte Carlo simulation (Section 9.1.1) to account for uncertainty.
Linear interpolation assumes SOC concentration is uniform within each increment. Where increments are thick and the SOC–mineral-mass relationship is strongly curved (for example across buried or spodic horizons), this introduces interpolation error. That error propagates as increased uncertainty in the Section 9.1.1 Monte Carlo simulation and, through the conservative lower bound, into the credited quantity. Project Proponents expecting a non-linear SOC distribution with depth should sample thinner increments across the affected depth intervals to reduce it.
Baseline event. At the baseline event, before any resampling event exists, the minimization in Equation 26 is taken over a single event and therefore returns that event's own stratum-mean profile total; the ESM correction ratio is unity at baseline by construction. The correction takes full effect from the first resampling event onwards, once the cross-event minimum is defined over more than one event.
The variance terms used in Section 9.1.1 (Uncertainty Propagation) must reflect the sample size at each depth increment across all sampling locations.
Aggregation to total carbon stock. Equation 26 produces an SOC stock density for a single stratum at a single event. These densities are aggregated to The Project level, area-weighted across strata and converted to CO₂e, by Equation 30; no separate aggregation is defined here. Under this Module the stored-carbon pool is SOC only (the aboveground and belowground woody biomass terms are set to zero), so The Project total carbon stock is the SOC stock delivered by Equation 30.
Approach 2 — Biogeochemical Modeling with Remeasurement
Model validation must be conducted in accordance with the requirements set out in Section 9.1.3.2.3 and all outcomes and data used for validation purposes must be clearly documented.
Under this approach, an approved biogeochemical model (see Section 9.1.3.2.1) is used to estimate SOC stock changes between resampling campaigns based on measured initial SOC stocks, implemented land management practice changes, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions within each quantification unit.
Direct measurement of SOC stocks is required at a minimum of every five years. Remeasurement data must be used to re-estimate model prediction error and recalibrate the model against observed conditions at each Reporting Period (true-up procedure, see Section 9.1.3.2.4).
Model Requirements
Model Eligibility
This Module is model-agnostic in principle: any biogeochemical model may be used provided it meets the eligibility and validation requirements of this Section. In practice, the validation requirements; spatial independence of calibration and validation data, representative management and climatic coverage, and the corpus-completeness standard, favor models with demonstrated broad regional or global applicability, validated across many sites and conditions, over models calibrated bespoke to a single project area. This reflects a deliberate trade-off: for a standard issuing credits across a portfolio of projects, assurance that a model is not overfit to locally favorable conditions and that its performance holds across contexts is prioritized over local-scale precision. Approach 2 is therefore best suited to models of demonstrated broad applicability; a locally parameterized model remains eligible only where it genuinely satisfies the validation requirements of this Section. Project Proponents should assess this fit before electing Approach 2.
Any model used to contribute to the quantification of net CO2e removal under this Module must be demonstrated to be well-validated and skillful for the purpose for which it is used, including the relevant soil types, land management practices, climatic conditions, and geographic context of The Project area. Recommended biogeochemical models include established process-based models such as DayCent, RothC, and CENTURY, as well as other models that meet the following eligibility criteria. However, even recommended models must be demonstrated to be fit for purpose in the context of The Project according to the below criteria.
Model eligibility must be demonstrated through one of the following two pathways, submitted in the PDD and approved by Isometric prior to Validation:
- Established models
- The model has a track record of use in science, industry, or government applications, demonstrated through multiple peer-reviewed publications reporting its application to SOC stock change estimation under land management conditions comparable to those of The Project area.
- The model must be demonstrably relevant to the climate, soil types, vegetation types, and land management practices present in The Project.
- Newly developed models
- Where a model does not yet have an established peer-reviewed track record, it must be validated against reputable independent data sources prior to use.
- Validation data must comprise quality-controlled in-situ SOC measurements and publicly available datasets adhering to FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) principles.
- Sufficient validation data and results must be submitted with the PDD and approved by Isometric prior to validation.
Model eligibility is context-specific. A model that is eligible for one project area is not automatically eligible for a project in a different ecoregion, soil type, or management context. Where the same model is to be used both to predict The Project scenario and to estimate the counterfactual under Section 9.2.2, eligibility must be demonstrated separately for The Project management practices and the baseline management practices.
Eligibility does not depend on a model's internal input structure or on its being process-based; empirical, statistical, and other model types are eligible on the same performance basis, with residual model limitations reflected in the conservative uncertainty treatment under Section 9.1.3.1 rather than in prescribed inputs.
The selected model must be capable of simulating SOC dynamics across the sampled depth profile required under Section 9.1.2.4.
Model Calibration and Parameterization
Model calibration and parameterization must be fully documented and reproducible. Project Proponents must provide sufficient information in the PDD for an independent third party to replicate the model setup and obtain equivalent outputs from the same inputs. At a minimum, the following must be documented:
- All parameter values used, including their source (e.g., published literature, national databases, site-specific measurements, or model defaults);
- Project Proponents must clearly specify which model parameters were subject to calibration
- The version of the model used, including any modifications made to the base model code or configuration;
- The procedure for model calibration reported in enough detail to enable reproducibility;
- All input data used to initialize and run the model, including measured initial SOC stocks, soil physical and chemical properties, climate data, and land management practice records; and
- Any assumptions made where site-specific data were unavailable, including justification for the values adopted.
All data sources used in parameterization must be available to Isometric and the VVB. Where proprietary data sources are used, Project Proponents must demonstrate that equivalent publicly available data were not available and must provide sufficient metadata to allow independent assessment of data quality.
The practice change that generates the claimed removal must be represented in the model, and the data needed to distinguish the project and baseline scenarios must be recorded and reported.
Digital soil maps may be used to initialize model state variables (e.g., baseline SOC pools, texture, bulk density) where site-measured values are unavailable. Because the acceptability of such products varies by region and property, their use is assessed against the following criteria, and a product will be accepted where the Project Proponent demonstrates each of the following to Isometric's satisfaction:
- Provenance
- The product is an authoritative or peer-reviewed soil dataset (e.g., a national or regional soil survey, SoilGrids, or the FAO Soils Portal), with a documented and reproducible methodology;
- Resolution and coverage
- The spatial resolution and depth intervals of the product are appropriate to the project's quantification units and the model's initialization requirements, with any resolution mismatch documented;
- Reported uncertainty
- The product reports a quantified prediction uncertainty for the initialized variables, which is propagated through the removal calculation; products that do not report prediction uncertainty may not be used;
- Local corroboration
- The initialized values are corroborated against project-area reference measurements (or, where unavailable, regionally representative field data), with material discrepancies documented and reconciled; and
- Scope of use
- The product is used only for model initialization, not as a source of credit-relevant SOC stock change; modeled baselines remain subject to the model validation and true-up requirements of Sections 9.1.3.2.3 and 9.1.3.2.6.
The product used, the criteria assessment, and the basis for Isometric's approval are recorded in the Project Design Document.
Model Validation
Prior to use for credit-relevant quantification, the selected biogeochemical model must be validated for the specific conditions of The Project area. Validation results and supporting data must be submitted in the PDD and are subject to review and approval by Isometric at project validation.
Data points used for model parameterization or calibration must not be used for validation. This prohibition applies to all data sources used in model development, including literature-derived values used at initial parameterization and any project-collected data subsequently used for recalibration under the true-up procedure. A minimum of 20% of all available representative data points must be withheld from parameterization and reserved exclusively for validation. Representative means that the withheld data points must span the full range of SOC stock values, soil types, climatic conditions, and land management practices present in The Project area. A validation subset that satisfies the 20% threshold but clusters at one end of the observed distribution does not meet this requirement.
The validation dataset must:
- Include representative coverage of SOC stock values across the sampled depth profile required under Section 9.1.2.4;
- Be drawn from the same ecoregion and encompass soil types, climatic conditions, and land management practices comparable to those of The Project area; and
- Include the range of management practice changes implemented under The Project, so that model performance under project-relevant conditions can be directly assessed.
- Where the model is to be used to estimate the counterfactual under Section 9.2.2, additionally include observations representative of the baseline management practices that will be input to the counterfactual simulation, so that model performance under baseline-relevant conditions can be directly assessed.
Where the validation dataset is used to support a modeled counterfactual under Section 9.2.2, model performance must be reported separately for project-like and baseline-like management contexts and for project-area-relevant and project-area-non-relevant climatic contexts. The performance threshold and bias requirements set out in this section apply independently to each project-like × climatic-coverage subset and to each baseline-like × climatic-coverage subset; where they are not met for the baseline-like × project-area-relevant climatic-coverage subset specifically, the model is not eligible to be used for counterfactual estimation under Section 9.2.2, regardless of its performance under other subsets.
Climatic coverage of the validation dataset must be reassessed at each Reporting Period against the climatic conditions actually experienced by The Project area in that period. Where the validation dataset does not include observations spanning the climatic conditions actually experienced (defined as fewer than three validation points within the climatic envelope of the Reporting Period under each of project-like and baseline-like management) the climatic-coverage gap must be documented and triggers the additional consequences set out in Section 9.1.3.2.3.
Based on assessment against the validation dataset, the model must demonstrate the following:
- , calculated as the coefficient of determination against validation dataset SOC stock values, must be greater than 0. A 90% confidence interval for must be calculated and must exclude 0, demonstrating statistically significant predictive skill. must not be calculated as the coefficient of determination of a linear regression of actual against predicted values, as this can produce misleadingly high values for biased models.
- Where model-based error propagation is used, the coverage of model predictions must be evaluated. The proportion of observed values falling within the model's predicted uncertainty intervals must be assessed and reported. This requirement does not apply where model-assisted or analytic error propagation is used.
- No systematic bias in predictions across the range of SOC stock values observed in The Project area. Where bias is present, it must be characterized, documented, and corrected prior to use.
The following statistics must be calculated and reported as documentation requirements at validation, but do not constitute enforceable performance thresholds: root mean square error (RMSE), reported in t C ha; and mean bias error (MBE), reported in t C ha, as the primary diagnostic for systematic overprediction or underprediction; and the skewness of the residual distribution, reported alongside a quantile-quantile plot of residuals against a normal distribution. Significant skewness in the marginal residual distribution does not by itself indicate model misspecification and does not constitute grounds for rejection under the residual structure requirements below; however, where significant skewness is detected (|skewness| > 0.5, or where the Q-Q plot indicates material asymmetry in the tails), the asymmetric error distribution must be characterised and used in Monte Carlo propagation as set out in Section 9.1.1 rather than a symmetric RMSE-based distribution.
Residual prediction errors must show no statistically significant structure with respect to soil type, management practice, or time, tested using an appropriate statistical test (e.g., ANOVA/Kruskal-Wallis for soil type and management practice; a trend or autocorrelation test for time) at a significance threshold of p < 0.10. Where stratum-level sample sizes are insufficient to support a determinative test, residuals may instead be assessed over the generalized parameter space described later in this Section, subject to the same consultation and approval requirements set out there. Where significant structure is detected, the model must be investigated and recalibrated, and may not be approved for use until the structure is resolved.
Where a model does not meet the performance threshold or exhibits systematic bias that cannot be corrected, it must be reparameterized or recalibrated before resubmission for Isometric approval. Data points previously used for validation may not be reused for parameterization or recalibration.
Generalised-parameter-space validation (data-sparse pathway). Where representative in-situ data are not reasonably available for the specific combination of soil, vegetation, climatic, and management conditions of the project area, model performance may be validated over a generalised parameter space encapsulating the project conditions, in place of project-like observations. This pathway is available where all of the following are met:
- Data-scarcity trigger. A documented systematic corpus search conducted in accordance with Section 9.1.3.2.4 returns fewer project-like observations than are required to populate the 20% representative validation subset and to meet the statistical-power thresholds for the project-like × climatic-coverage subset, and the regional validation dataset permitted under Section 9.1.3.2.5 is likewise insufficient. The search, its results, and the resulting data gap must be documented.
- Parameter-space characterisation. The generalised parameter space must be defined explicitly over the underlying drivers of SOC dynamics — the climatic envelope (temperature and moisture/aridity regime), soil properties (texture, type, SOC range, and depth profile), and the management drivers that characterise the project intervention (e.g. stocking density, rest and recovery periods, defoliation frequency) — rather than by named practice categories.
- Interpolation, not extrapolation. The project's conditions must lie within the interior of the validated parameter space on each key driver. Validation does not support crediting where project conditions fall outside, or only at the boundary of, the validated envelope.
- Performance. The R² and systematic-bias thresholds set out in this Section apply unchanged, and residual prediction errors must be shown to be randomly distributed with respect to the drivers defining the parameter space.
- Conservatism. A conservative additional model-prediction uncertainty must be applied and propagated through the Section 9.1.1 Monte Carlo simulation while generalised-parameter-space validation is relied upon, reflecting the substitution of generalised for project-specific validation.
- Convergence at true-up. As project remeasurement data accumulate, the model must be re-validated and, where required, recalibrated toward project-specific observations at each true-up event under Section 9.1.3.2.6, progressively reducing reliance on generalised validation.
Use of this pathway must be pre-registered, reviewed by the VVB, and approved by Isometric. Because cumulative credits under Approach 2 are in all cases reconciled to field measurement through the model divergence testing and reconciliation requirements — including compensation of any overcrediting from the Buffer Pool and loss of interim model-based crediting on persistent overprediction — generalised-parameter-space validation does not weaken the environmental-integrity controls applied at each true-up event.
Completeness of Validation Data
The validation dataset is constructed by withholding a minimum of 20% of representative data points from a broader corpus of available evidence. The integrity of this withholding process depends on the corpus itself being complete, since selective construction of the corpus before the 20% withholding is applied is functionally equivalent to selective construction of the validation set. Project Proponents must therefore construct the validation data corpus to the following completeness standard.
The corpus must include all peer-reviewed studies that satisfy each of the following criteria:
- Published in the peer-reviewed literature within the 25 years preceding the validation date;
- Drawn from The Project's ecoregion, defined consistently with the management-coverage and climate-coverage requirements set out elsewhere in this Section;
- Reporting SOC stocks (not solely SOC concentration) at depth profiles compatible with The Project's reported sampling depths under Section 9.1.2.4; and
- Reporting SOC stocks under management practices identifiable as project-like or baseline-like under the partition defined elsewhere in this Section.
The Project Proponent must document the literature search procedure used to identify candidate studies, including the databases queried (at minimum: Web of Science, Scopus, AGRIS, and Google Scholar), the search terms used, the date of the search, and the total number of studies identified before any exclusion is applied.
Studies satisfying the mandatory inclusion criteria may be excluded from the corpus only on the basis of one or more of the following grounds, with each exclusion documented individually at the study level and subject to scrutiny at validation:
- Methodological incompatibility: the study uses an SOC measurement method (e.g., wet oxidation with no dry-combustion comparator, or a non-comparable depth-aggregation procedure) that cannot be reconciled with The Project's measurement framework;
- Documented data quality issues: the study has been subject to a published correction, retraction, or methodological criticism that materially undermines the reliability of its SOC stock measurements;
- Soil-type incompatibility: the study covers a soil type that is not present in The Project area, where soil type is the primary control on the model's predictions;
- Replacement by superseding study: the study has been superseded by a later peer-reviewed remeasurement of the same locations, in which case the later study replaces (rather than is added to) the earlier one in the corpus; or
- Inaccessibility: the underlying data are not available to The Project Proponent through reasonable efforts, including direct request to the corresponding author. Where this exclusion is invoked, The Project Proponent must document the specific data-request actions taken and the response (or non-response) received.
Exclusion on grounds outside this list is not permitted. In particular, a study may not be excluded on the basis that its inclusion would widen the Monte Carlo input distributions or increase the uncertainty discount.
Changes to the corpus or to the validation subset after pre-registration require explicit Isometric approval and constitute a fresh validation event for which model performance metrics calculated prior to the change may not be relied upon.
Spatial Blocking of Calibration and Validation Data
Calibration and validation data points must be spatially independent. Spatial mixing of calibration and validation locations within the same continuous soil or bioclimatic neighborhood produces residual correlation between the two sets that systematically inflates reported model performance statistics relative to the model's true generalization skill. The data-separation rule set out above (no point used for both parameterization and validation) is necessary but not sufficient for this purpose; spatial separation is additionally required and must be implemented through one of the following two designs:
- Distance-based separation. Calibration and validation points are drawn from the same dataset, but each validation point must lie beyond the empirical spatial autocorrelation range of the SOC residual variogram from the nearest calibration point. The autocorrelation range must be estimated from The Project's available data (or, where insufficient project-area data are available, from regional comparable data) using a documented variogram fitting procedure, and is defined as the lag distance at which the empirical semivariogram reaches 95% of its sill value. Where the variogram is anisotropic, the longer of the two principal-axis ranges must be used.
- Block-level hold-out. Entire spatial blocks (defined as project strata, quantification units, sub-regions, or other contiguous spatial units of meaningful agronomic or pedogenic homogeneity) are reserved for validation rather than individual points within shared blocks. Where this design is used, the minimum number of held-out blocks must be sufficient to support the validation framework's statistical-power requirements (which under the prior proposed redraft are evaluated separately for each project-like × climate-coverage and baseline-like × climate-coverage subset), and the held-out blocks must collectively span the management-coverage, climate-coverage, and distributional-distance criteria set out elsewhere in this Section.
Project Proponents must report at validation, for each bias-test subset (project-like, baseline-like, and the climate-coverage portions of each):
- The empirical SOC residual variogram or equivalent autocorrelation diagnostic, including the fitted autocorrelation range and 90% confidence interval on the range estimate;
- The minimum, median, and 5th-percentile distances between validation locations and the nearest calibration location;
- Where the distance-based separation design is used, evidence that the 5th-percentile distance exceeds the autocorrelation range; and
- Where the block-level hold-out design is used, the spatial definition of each held-out block, the rationale for the choice of block size, and a demonstration that no calibration-point neighborhood (defined by the autocorrelation range) crosses a block boundary into a held-out block.
Where The Project area is too compact to support distance-based separation beyond the autocorrelation range, or where the available validation dataset is too small to populate block-level hold-outs at the required statistical-power thresholds, within-project spatial blocking is not feasible and The Project Proponent must instead use regional validation data drawn from beyond The Project boundary, with the regional dataset itself satisfying the management-coverage, climate-coverage, distributional-distance, and spatial-blocking requirements of this Section. The regional dataset must be drawn from the same ecoregion, must satisfy the comparability criteria set out elsewhere in this Section, and must include sufficient spatial extent for distance-based separation to be operationalized within it. Use of the fallback must be documented at validation, including a quantitative demonstration that within-project blocking is infeasible and a justification of the regional dataset's representativeness of The Project area.
Where post-recalibration validation is conducted under Section 9.1.3.2.3 following a triggered bias test, the spatial-blocking requirements of this sub-section apply equally to the post-recalibration validation. New calibration points used in recalibration must be spatially separated from validation points under the same design as was used at initial validation. Where new calibration data are spatially correlated with existing validation data such that this requirement cannot be satisfied without restructuring the validation set, The Project Proponent must construct a fresh validation set under the spatial-blocking requirements before the recalibrated model may be used for credit-relevant quantification.
Model True-Up
At a maximum interval of 5 years, the biogeochemical model must be updated using new SOC stock measurements collected during the resampling campaign in accordance with Section 9.1.2. A true-up event is additionally required, before the scheduled maximum interval, for any Reporting Period in which the climatic-coverage reassessment under Section 9.1.3.2.3 shows that a climatic driver used by the model falls below (validation minimum − 0.2 × validation range) or above (validation maximum + 0.2 × validation range) of that driver across the validation dataset. In such a Reporting Period the crediting event is a true-up event rather than an interim crediting event, and the measured result is subject to divergence testing and reconciliation under Section 9.1.3.2.3.
The true-up procedure serves three purposes: integrating new observational evidence into the model's cumulative data record; reassessing model error and uncertainty; and detecting and correcting systematic bias before it propagates into subsequent credit estimates.
New field measurement data must be added to the full cumulative dataset comprising all prior literature-derived values and project-collected data used in parameterization and validation. New data points must first be used for model error reassessment before any portion is considered for recalibration, the same data points may not be used simultaneously for both purposes within the same Reporting Period.
At each true-up event, the sampling collected under Section 9.1.2.3 must be used to update model error statistics and test for systematic bias in the modeled profile. The MBE-based bias test (10% of mean observed SOC stock change) applies to the modeled profile. Where systematic overprediction is detected, the consequences set out in this section apply.
Updated error statistics must be calculated against the new observations and reported in the Monitoring Report at verification. At minimum the following must be reported, calculated separately for The Project-like and baseline-like subsets of the cumulative validation dataset (as defined in Section 9.1.3.2.3) and for each subset's project-area-relevant climatic-coverage portion: calculated as , with a 90% confidence interval that must exclude 0; RMSE in t C ha; residual skewness with a Q-Q plot; and MBE in t C ha, calculated as the mean of (predicted − observed) across all validation points in each subset, reported alongside its standard error and a one-sided 90% upper confidence bound on . The pooled statistics for the cumulative validation dataset as a whole must additionally be reported. Updated error statistics must be used to revise the Monte Carlo simulation input probability distributions in accordance with Section 9.1.1, including, where residual skewness has changed materially, revisions of the error distributions. Where the true-up reveals greater model uncertainty than was previously characterized, the higher uncertainty estimate must be applied.
Three parallel bias tests apply at each true-up. Each test combines a statistical-significance criterion (to control false positives and false negatives at small or noisy validation sample sizes) with a residual minimum effect-size criterion (to prevent triggering on statistically detectable but practically immaterial bias). Any single test, if triggered, requires the mandatory consequences set out below.
Pooled bias test. The pooled-MBE test fires where both of the following are satisfied:
- The lower bound of a one-sided 90% confidence interval on MBE on the cumulative validation dataset as a whole exceeds zero, i.e., the test rejects the null hypothesis of no overprediction at the 10% one-sided significance level; and
- The point estimate of MBE on the cumulative validation dataset exceeds 5% of the mean observed SOC stock in The Project area across the cumulative dataset.
Where the test fires with a positive MBE point estimate (the model over-predicts), this constitutes systematic pooled overprediction. A negative MBE point estimate, or failure of either criterion, does not trigger the mandatory consequences but must be documented and investigated where statistically significant.
Differential bias test (management-conditional). The differential test fires where both of the following are satisfied:
- The lower bound of a one-sided 90% confidence interval on exceeds zero, where and are the point estimates on The Project-like and baseline-like subsets of the cumulative validation dataset respectively, and the confidence interval is calculated using a Welch-style standard-error formulation that accommodates unequal sample sizes and unequal within-subset variances between the two subsets; and
- The point estimate exceeds 5% of the mean observed SOC stock in The Project area across the cumulative dataset.
Where the test fires, the model is biased toward over-estimating The Project effect (over-crediting). A negative point estimate, or failure of either criterion, does not trigger the mandatory consequences but must be documented and investigated where statistically significant.
Differential bias test (climate-conditional). The climate-conditional differential test fires where both of the following are satisfied:
- The lower bound of a one-sided 90% confidence interval on exceeds zero, where and are the point estimates on The Project-like and baseline-like subsets of the cumulative validation dataset restricted to the climatic-coverage portion overlapping with the climatic conditions actually experienced by The Project area during the Reporting Period, calculated using the same Welch-style standard-error formulation as the management-conditional test; and
- The point estimate exceeds 5% of the mean observed SOC stock in The Project area across the cumulative dataset.
Where either subset under the climate-conditional test contains fewer than three validation points within the relevant climatic-coverage portion, the test is not statistically defined, and the climatic-coverage gap consequences set out below apply in lieu of the test result.
Counterfactual bias assessment and correction. The management-conditional and climate-conditional differential tests assess whether the model systematically over-estimates The Project effect by mis-estimating the counterfactual, evaluated against the baseline-like subset of the validation dataset. This assessment must be performed at initial model approval and re-performed upon any recalibration or other change to the model parameterization, and upon any update to the validation dataset. It is not triggered by true-up events in themselves, as a true-up provides no new observation of the counterfactual.
Where a differential test fires, the modeled counterfactual SOC stock change must be adjusted by subtracting (or where the climate-conditional test fires) from the modeled counterfactual for each Reporting Period to which the affected parameterization applies. The adjustment must be capped at the lesser of (i) 25% of the unadjusted modeled counterfactual stock change for the period, or (ii) the absolute value of the bias point estimate from the relevant subset, with the cap and any application of it documented in the Monitoring Report. Where the climate-conditional test cannot be statistically defined, the climatic-coverage gap consequences below apply. Where a counterfactual bias correction is applied, the combined project-effect estimate for each affected Reporting Period is calculated as the difference between The Project SOC stock change (measured or modeled, according to the Reporting Period type) and the bias-corrected modeled counterfactual.
Consequences where a bias test fires. The bias tests diagnose the presence, source, and location of model bias. The consequences of the pooled and management-conditional bias tests are as follows.
Where a bias test fires, the source of the bias must be investigated, documented, and reported to Isometric. The Project Proponent must respond in accordance with Section 9.1.3.2.3, by either recalibrating the model or applying an increased model prediction uncertainty in the Section 9.1.1 propagation. Where the source cannot be identified or corrected, continued use of the model must be approved by Isometric before the next Reporting Period commences. Reconciliation of project-side crediting against field measurement is governed by Section 9.1.3.2.3; the counterfactual bias correction is governed by the counterfactual bias assessment above.
Climatic-coverage gap consequences. Where the climate-conditional differential test cannot be statistically defined for a Reporting Period because the validation dataset contains fewer than three validation points within one or both subsets restricted to the climatic conditions actually experienced, the consequences are as follows:
- For the current Reporting Period, the modeled counterfactual estimate must be subjected to a default conservative adjustment: the modeled counterfactual SOC stock change must be increased by an amount equal to the larger of (i) the absolute value of on the broader baseline-like subset (i.e., the management-conditional, not climate-conditional, point estimate), or (ii) 5% of the mean observed SOC stock n The Project area across the cumulative dataset. The combined project-effect estimate is then calculated as the difference between the modeled (or measured, depending on Reporting Period type) project SOC stock change and the adjusted modeled counterfactual. The adjustment must be applied without the bias-correction cap that applies under the bias-test consequences above.
- The Project Proponent must, prior to the next Reporting Period, expand the validation dataset to remedy the climatic-coverage gap. Where the climatic conditions experienced are unprecedented in the available validation evidence base for The Project's ecoregion, this requirement may be satisfied by acceptance from Isometric of a documented gap, with the conservative adjustment under (1) continuing to apply at each subsequent Reporting Period until the gap is closed.
Optional Recalibration
Project Proponents may elect to recalibrate model parameters at any true-up event using the updated cumulative dataset, subject to the following requirements:
- Recalibration must use the full cumulative dataset of literature-derived and project-collected data, excluding all data points reserved for validation;
- A minimum of 20% of all available representative data points in the updated cumulative dataset must be withheld from recalibration and used for post-recalibration validation, consistent with the data separation requirements of Section 9.1.3.2.3. A validation subset that satisfies the 20% threshold but clusters at one end of the observed distribution does not meet this requirement;
- Post-recalibration model performance must satisfy the performance threshold of Section 9.1.3.2.3, that is, greater than 0 with a 90% confidence interval excluding 0, and must demonstrate no systematic bias before the recalibrated model is used for credit-relevant quantification. Where recalibration was undertaken in response to a bias test firing, it must specifically target the source(s) of the identified bias and must restore each fired test to non-firing status (both criteria failing on the post-recalibration validation dataset), evidenced through subset-by-subset performance reporting under Section 9.1.3.2.3;
- All recalibration inputs, revised parameter values, updated validation results, evidence that the 20% representative validation split requirement has been satisfied, updated performance statistics, and revised Monte Carlo input probability distributions must be submitted to Isometric and approved prior to use of the recalibrated model in the next Reporting Period.
Data points previously used for validation may not be reused for parameterization or recalibration at any point in The Project lifetime.
Remeasurement (True-up) Soil Sampling Requirements
Remeasurement serves model calibration and true-up purposes rather than primary quantification. The following requirements apply to all resampling campaigns conducted under this approach:
- The QA/QC, georeferencing, seasonal consistency, and organic amendment timing requirements set out in Section 9.1.2.1 apply equally to remeasurement campaigns.
- The sampling design and stratification requirements of Section 9.1.2.2 apply equally to remeasurement.
- Stratification for remeasurement must be consistent with the stratification used for initial baseline measurement and for model parameterization, to ensure that remeasurement data are directly comparable to modeled outputs at the stratum level.
- Under Approach 2, strata may be revised at a Reporting Period in accordance with Section 9.1.2.2.5, subject to the following. Where revision consists of aggregating existing strata, modelled stratum-level outputs are reconciled by area-weighted aggregation under the documented old-to-new mapping, and no re-run is required. Where revision splits or otherwise redraws strata such that modelled outputs cannot be reconciled by aggregation, the model must be re-run at the revised stratum resolution. In either case, the revised strata must remain within the model's validated domain under Sections 9.1.3.2.4–9.1.3.2.5; where they do not, the revision constitutes a fresh validation event and the affected strata revert to interim-crediting treatment until re-validation is completed.
- The power analysis requirements of Section 9.1.2.3 apply to remeasurement campaigns. The must be set at a level sufficient to detect the model prediction error identified at initial validation, in addition to the expected project-induced SOC stock change.
- At true-up events, field measurements of ESM must be collected during the resampling campaign and used to apply an ESM correction to the model output, consistent with the ESM approach selected under Section 9.1.2.4. The treatment of ESM differs by event type:
- Interim crediting events; the model output is used on a fixed-depth basis without an ESM correction, using the reference ESM from baseline measurements.
- True-up events: measured ESM data from the resampling campaign must be used to apply a full ESM correction to the model output, consistent with the approach described in Section 9.1.2.4.
The requirements of Section 9.1.2 and all subsections apply equally to remeasurement under Approach 2. In-situ proximal sensing (Section 9.1.2.9) may also be used for remeasurement, subject to the same requirements.
SOC Stock Calculation (Approach 2)
The model output can be used directly in Equation 26. Project Proponents electing this approach must i) clearly document this as being the case in the model's output within the model description in the PDD; ii) demonstrate the model's internal reference mass is consistent with, or more conservative than, the reference mineral mass defined in Section 9.1.2.10; and iii) ensure that model validation is conducted against observations on the same mass basis s the model output.
Interim Crediting Events
At interim events no field measurement is available, so the mineral-mass profile and the reference mass are held at their baseline () values. The cumulative-mass estimator (Equation 26) evaluated at the baseline reference mass therefore has correction ratio unity (, interpolation term zero) and reduces to the modelled SOC mass over the baseline profile:
(Equation 29)
Where:
- is the modelled SOC stock density in stratum at modelled time step , on a mineral-mass basis (t C ha⁻¹);
- is the modelled SOC content in depth increment of stratum at time (g C kg⁻¹ fine soil);
- is the baseline fine soil mass per unit area for increment in stratum (Equation 23, kg m⁻²), estimated from all sampling locations within stratum ;
- is the total number of depth increments sampled under Section 9.1.2.4. Where soils within stratum are shallower than the sampled depth, is reduced accordingly and the deepest increment is reported to the sampled depth;
- the factor converts g C m⁻² to t C ha⁻¹.
This equation evaluates the cumulative-mass estimator at the baseline reference mineral mass ; because no post-baseline mineral-mass measurement is available at an interim event, the cross-event correction ratio is unity and the interpolation term vanishes. Modelled SOC mass is formed on the fine soil mass basis, consistent with Equation 25.
Estimation of : the baseline reference soil mineral mass for each sampled increment is estimated using baseline () measurements from all sampling locations within stratum .
True-Up Events
At true-up events, field measurements from the resampling campaign are available, so the full cumulative-mass ESM correction (Equation 27) is applied to the model output, with measured SOC mass replaced by modeled SOC mass:
(Equation 30)
Where:
- is the ESM-corrected modelled SOC stock density in stratum at true-up event , on a mineral-mass basis (t C ha⁻¹);
- is the modelled SOC mass per unit area for increment , formed from the modeled SOC content (g C kg⁻¹ fine soil, updated through the true-up procedure) and the measured fine soil mass at the true-up event (Equation 23, kg m⁻²);
- is the measured soil mineral mass per unit area for increment at the true-up event (Equation 24, kg m⁻²);
- is the reference soil mineral mass (Equation 26), the across-event minimum of the stratum-mean profile total over and all true-up events including the current one;
- and are defined as in Equation 27;
- the factor converts g C m⁻² to t C ha⁻¹.
As in Approach 1, Equation 22 is evaluated at each sampling location against the stratum reference , and the stratum-level value is the mean across locations. The cross-event minimization is applied consistently across all sampled increments using all sampling locations.
The cross-event minimization under the ESM correction is applied consistently across all sampled increments using all sampling locations.
is substituted for in Equation 14 for the purposes of calculating The Project-level total SOC stock at true-up events.
Model Divergence Testing and Reconciliation
With the true-up events under the model and remeasurement approach, the values across the two methods must be reconciled, and any model overprediction must be detected and corrected. These requirements have implications for all credit issuances under this approach, at both interim crediting events and true-up events.
Governing principle. Crediting under this Module and the Improved Soil Management Protocol is cumulative. At all times, the total credits issued to The Project must correspond to the cumulative increase in SOC stock established at the most recent true-up event, less credits issued in respect of periods before that event. Each true-up event re-establishes the cumulative SOC stock from field measurement and reconciles total credits issued to it, consistent with the cumulative crediting basis and the derivation of net removals under Equation 10 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol.
Divergence test. At each true-up event, the measured cumulative change in SOC stock since the most recent true-up event (or since t0 for the first true-up event) must be compared against the modeled cumulative change over the same interval. The test statistic is the difference between the measured and modeled cumulative change, standardized by the combined standard error of the two quantities. The comparison must be conducted as two one-sided tests at the 90% confidence level, one for overprediction and one for underprediction, comparing the standardized difference against the corresponding one-sided critical value. The distributional basis for the test must be documented, and a small-sample correction (use of the t-distribution in place of the normal approximation) must be applied where sample sizes are low.
The combined standard error must be formed from the sampling uncertainty of the measurement and the model prediction uncertainty, treated as independent (combined in quadrature) unless a correlation between them is demonstrated:
- The measurement sampling uncertainty must be the same within-stratum sampling uncertainty characterized for propagation through the Section 9.1.1 Monte Carlo simulation, so that the divergence test and credit issuance use a consistent uncertainty basis.
- The model prediction uncertainty must be the uncertainty in the model's cumulative prediction over the interval since the most recent true-up event, propagated consistently with Section 9.1.1, including any temporal correlation of model errors across periods. The per-period model prediction error must not be used in place of the cumulative interval uncertainty, as this would understate the uncertainty against which the divergence is tested.
The outcome of the divergence test must be reported at every true-up event, whether or not a significant difference is found.
Establishing the corrected SOC stock. On the basis of the divergence test, the corrected cumulative SOC stock at the true-up event () is established as follows, and used in place of the modeled stock in Equation 22 for the derivation of net removals:
- Overprediction (measurement significantly below model). The corrected stock is the lower of the modeled cumulative stock or the measured cumulative stock.
- Underprediction (measurement significantly above model). The corrected stock is the conservative lower bound of the measured cumulative stock, evaluated at the confidence level used for issuance under Section 9.1.1.
- No significant difference (conservative reconciliation applies). The corrected stock is the lower of the modeled cumulative stock or the conservative lower bound of the measured cumulative stock, evaluated at the confidence level used for issuance under Section 9.1.1.
In each case the corrected stock is established at the module level; the derivation of the corresponding cumulative change and net removals from is performed under Equations 3-5 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol.
Reconciliation of credits. Total credits issued to The Project must be reconciled to the corrected cumulative SOC stock (as given effect through the derivation of cumulative net removals under Equations 3 and 4 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol):
- Where total credits issued exceed the corrected position, the excess constitutes overcrediting. No credits are issued for the current reporting period, and the excess is compensated from the Buffer Pool, subordinate to any reversal compensation claims on the Buffer Pool in the same period. Any amount so compensated constitutes a replenishment obligation on The Project Proponent, which is senior to any further issuance: no credits may be issued to The Project until the Buffer Pool has been fully replenished by the compensated amount.
- Where the corrected position exceeds total credits issued, the shortfall is issued as credits attributed to the current reporting period.
Where credits conservatively forgone at a true-up event (through reconciliation to a conservative lower bound) are confirmed by a subsequent true-up event that establishes a higher corrected cumulative SOC stock, the difference is issued at that subsequent event through the reconciliation above. No separate tracking of forgone amounts is required, as the cumulative reconciliation gives effect to this automatically.
Detection roles. The divergence test is the sole trigger for reconciliation under this Section. The bias tests under Section 9.1.3.2.3 serve to diagnose the source and location of a divergence and to guide the forward response; they are recommended at each true-up event and become required where the divergence test identifies a significant difference. Bias in the counterfactual is addressed through model validation against baseline-like observations under Section 9.1.3.2.3 rather than through reconciliation under this Section, as The Project counterfactual is not directly observable.
Forward response. Where the divergence test identifies significant overprediction, reconciliation of the elapsed period under this Section is mandatory. For subsequent periods, The ProjectProponent must either recalibrate the model in accordance with Section 9.1.3.2.3 or apply update the model prediction uncertainty to correspond to the latest true up data and use this increased uncertainty value for all issuances until the next true-up event. In either case, modeled increments for subsequent periods must be applied to the corrected cumulative SOC stock established at the true-up event, and not to the model's uncorrected cumulative trajectory.
Escalation. The model loses eligibility for interim model-based crediting, and crediting reverts to the measure-and-remeasure procedure under Section 9.1.2 for the remainder of The Project, where either: (i) significant overprediction is identified at two consecutive true-up events; or (ii) the overcrediting excess at a single true-up event exceeds 20% of the credits issued in respect of the periods since the most recent true-up event. Eligibility for interim model-based crediting may be restored where the model is re-validated against the full requirements of Section 9.1.3.2.1 and 9.1.3.2.3 and re-approved by Isometric, including demonstration of performance under the conditions associated with the divergence. Following restoration, a single subsequent identification of significant overprediction re-suspends eligibility.
Assessment of Counterfactual Carbon Storage
Counterfactual Assessment via Measurement of Control Plots
Projects using a measure-remeasure quantification approach for carbon storage within The Project Area will determine the counterfactual carbon storage by applying the same measurement techniques within control plots. The control plots must be areas where project interventions are not taking place, but are otherwise representative of The Project Area. As such, these areas represent “business as usual” management practices that would have continued in absence of The Project intervention.
Control plots must be selected from within The Project Area at the time of project initiation, following a two-step procedure:
- Candidate-set identification. At enrollment, participating landowners must identify the contiguous areas within their holdings that they are willing and able to maintain under business-as-usual management for the duration of The Project Commitment Period and to make available for sampling under the protocol. The aggregate candidate set across all participating landowners (the "Control Plot Candidate Set") must, in aggregate, span the soil, climate, and management strata represented in The Project Area. Where the Control Plot Candidate Set materially under-represents one or more strata of The Project Area, defined as fewer than three contiguous candidate areas within a stratum, or aggregate candidate area within a stratum less than 5% of the corresponding stratum in The Project Area, The Project Proponent must either (a) extend the candidate set to remedy the gap before validation, or (b) document the gap, justify why representativeness can nonetheless be reasonably assumed, and accept the consequences for uncertainty quantification under Section 9.1.1.
- Stratified random selection. Control plots must then be drawn from the Control Plot Candidate Set using a stratified random sampling approach, with stratification reflecting the soil, climate, and management variability of The Project Area. Project Proponents must provide details of how the stratification and selection process was done, including the random seed and procedure used, and must document the relationship between the Control Plot Candidate Set and The Project Area (i.e., how the candidate set was constructed and any areas that were considered for inclusion but excluded, with reasons).
At minimum, the total area of the control plots must be equivalent to 2.5% of The Project Area, with a minimum of three control plots for each stratum within The Project Area. Management practices within the control plots must continue to follow "business as usual" practices, and Project Proponents must provide evidence and details on the implementation of these practices at each Reporting Period. At project initiation, the management practices must be evidenced with records from the enrolled properties over a minimum of three years prior to project implementation. In order of preference, this evidence can include:
- Farm management logs
- Farm management plans
- Affidavits from enrolled land owners
At least once every five years, The Project Proponent must demonstrate that the implemented practices within the control plots continue to represent regional management trends. This must be evidenced by regional data records from government bodies, academic or research institutions, international organizations, and/or peer-reviewed literature. In the event that there is a shift in these business-as-usual management practices, the management of the control plots must be updated to reflect these practices for the subsequent Reporting Period.
Where a control plot becomes unavailable during The Project Commitment Period for reasons outside The Project Proponent's reasonable control (e.g., land sale, change of operator, withdrawal of the participating landowner), a replacement control plot must be drawn from the Control Plot Candidate Set under the same stratified random sampling procedure, within the same stratum, and re-baselined at the next sampling event. Discontinuity in the control-plot time series introduced by such a replacement must be documented and propagated through the uncertainty framework under Section 9.1.1. Replacement of control plots for reasons within The Project Proponent's control (e.g., agronomic preference) is not permitted.
Project Proponents must follow the same requirements for sampling design, sample collection, sample analysis, and reporting as for quantification of carbon storage within The project area as described in Section 9.1.2 and all subsections therein. If control plots are directly adjacent to project intervention plots, sampling should occur at least 10 meters from the boundary. Project Proponents must follow the same sampling and analysis procedures for both Project Area and control samples. The total counterfactual storage at any time () is then calculated as:
(Equation 31)
Where:
is the total storage of carbon in the counterfactual scenario at time , in tonnes CO2e
is the mean soil carbon density at time in in the control plots corresponding to strata of The Project Area of total strata in the control plots calculated following the procedures in Section 9.1.2, in tonnes C ha-1
is the area of strata in The Project Area, in ha
Assessing counterfactual uncertainty
Assessment of uncertainty in the value of estimated via measure remeasure techniques must follow the same requirements and procedure for assessing uncertainty in the measure remeasure approach for Project Area carbon quantification.
Counterfactual Assessment via Modeling
Projects using a measure and model approach for quantification of carbon stocks within The Project Area must use the same modeling approach for assessment of the . For modeling the model must follow the same implementation and parameterization as is used for The Project Area and only reflect differences in management practices. Project Proponents must follow all the requirements for model application and reporting for the counterfactual assessment as for the assessment of project area carbon storage.
For each parameter within the model related to management practices, Project Proponents must provide evidence of the historical parameter values based on records from the enrolled properties over a minimum of three years prior to project implementation. In order of preference, this evidence can include:
- Farm management logs
- Farm management plans
- Affidavits from enrolled land owners
In addition to property-specific data, The Project Proponent must also indicate for each variable where regional data records from government bodies, academic/research institutions, international organizations, and/or peer-reviewed literature exist.
For each Reporting Period, The Project Proponent must report any newly available data based on the regional data sources, as well as report availability of any new regional data sources. Where there is a difference between the recent regional parameter values and the historical farm parameter values, the more conservative (i.e. the one yielding a higher counterfactual discount) must be used for the prediction of . If there is a lag between the collection and reporting of regional data, the historical data may be used for years with as of yet unreported data, but the values must be updated in subsequent Reporting Periods to reflect the most recent data availability.
In lieu of the above data sources, Project Proponents may elect to take a probabilistic modeled approach for assessing counterfactual management practices following the procedure and requirements in Section 9.2.2.1. The model used to estimate must satisfy the eligibility and validation requirements of Sections 9.1.3.1 with respect to the baseline management practices being modeled, in addition to The Project management practices.
Development of Probabilistic Management Practice Model
Projects may elect to develop a statistical model for describing management practices in absence of The Project interventions within The Project area. This model must be developed and validated based on property- and region-specific data. The model must predict the probabilistic distribution of management practices within The Project area based on variables which are dynamically updated over the course of The Project. The Project Proponent should consider all potentially relevant factors to farm activity and management, including but not limited to:
- Climate variables
- Fertilizer prices
- Commodity prices
- Recent practices/management decisions
- Livestock/cattle prices
- Stocking-rate decisions
- Forage/pasture availability
- Drought/feed conditions
- Destocking triggers
The model must be approved by Isometric prior to use, with this section outlining criteria which will form the basis of the assessment. If approved, the distributions of management practices generated by the model can then be used as input parameters for the biogeochemical model for the prediction of a distribution of values. Following initial approval, the continued performance of the model at each Reporting Period based on recent data must be demonstrated for continued use. If the model still falls below the performance thresholds, The Project must revert to the default procedure for modeled counterfactual determination.
Model Development and Reporting
The model development must be documented and shared with sufficient detail for replicability. At minimum, this should include details of model type, model structure, all input variables and sources, calibration procedure for selection and tuning of parameters and hyperparameters, details of data pre-processing/quality controls, and model code. The calibration data must be demonstrated to cover the range of historical scenarios within The Project area.
Model Validation and Updates Over Time
To be eligible for use, the performance of the model must be demonstrated at The Project and regional level using data that is withheld from the training process and both spatially and temporally blocked from the training data. The validation data must cover at least 80% of the range of each management parameter which is fed into the biogeochemical model. To be approved for use, the model skill for predicting the validation data must be demonstrated via:
- Root mean square error of less than 30% of the mean value for all continuous variables
- Classification accuracy of 75% for categorical variables
- Misclassifications of parameter values that would deflate the baseline (and thus decrease the counterfactual discount) must not exceed 15%
- Mean prediction error not significantly different from 0 at 90% confidence interval for The Project area overall and for each strata; If a bias is present it must be demonstrated that it results in a more conservative baseline assessment
The input parameters for the model are also subject to the sensitivity analysis requirements under the Protocol as part of the broader uncertainty assessment.
For each Reporting Period, the continued model performance must be demonstrated against all newly available regional data since the prior Reporting Period. The model may be recalibrated, but all details must be reported and the recalibration must apply across the full modeled project time period, including retroactively
Assessing Modeled Counterfactual Uncertainty
The relative uncertainty of the modeled counterfactual carbon storage should use the same uncertainty assessed for the model using the validation against collected measurements.. Where Project Proponents elect to use the method described in Section 9.2.2.1 to generate probabilistic descriptions of management practice parameter values, the distributions of generated as part of the procedure should be propagated through the broader assessment of uncertainty for The Project.
Measure-Remeasure Project with Modeled Counterfactual
This is a hybrid approach to quantification pairing direct measurement and remeasurement of SOC stock change within The Project Area (Approach 1, Section 9.1.2), with a modeled counterfactual SOC trajectory (Section 9.2.2) in place of measured control plots. This approach may only be used where The Project Proponent demonstrates that control plots representative of The Project Area cannot be established, with the demonstration documented in the PDD and approved at validation. Project Proponents must also justify why a model is not capable of accurately representing The Project scenario.
Where this approach is used, The Project-scenario SOC stock change must be quantified by direct measurement under Section 9.1.2 and all its subsections, and the counterfactual SOC stock change must be modeled under Section 9.2.2, subject to the additional requirements of this Section. The model used for the counterfactual must satisfy the eligibility, validation, spatial-blocking, true-up, and (where applicable) multi-model-ensemble requirements of Section 9.2.2.3.4 with respect to the baseline management practices being modeled.
Loss of Error Cancellation
The quantification pairings derive the net project effect as the difference between two estimates established on a common basis. Measurement, seasonal, laboratory, and model-structural biases common to both estimates therefore substantially offset one another in the difference. This pairing does not achieve such offsetting: any systematic bias in the modeled counterfactual propagates without offset into the credited net effect. The requirements of this Section must be applied to ensure that residual bias in the modeled counterfactual acts only in the direction that reduces credit issuance.
The counterfactual term must be calculated from the same measured baseline SOC stock at project initiation (t₀), the same stratification, and the same reference mineral mass, so that the difference reflects only the divergence in SOC trajectory between The Project and counterfactual scenarios. This section should be applied in addition to Section 9.2.
One-Sided Counterfactual Bias Correction
The modeled counterfactual must be corrected for systematic bias in the conservative direction only. Where the bias tests in Section 9.1.3.1.6 detect that the model systematically predicts the counterfactual to lose more, or gain less, SOC than the baseline-like validation evidence supports, the modeled counterfactual stock change must be adjusted upward to remove the detected bias. Where the model predicts the counterfactual to gain more SOC than the validation evidence supports, no adjustment may be made; bias in this direction is conservative for crediting and must be retained.
One-Sided Uncertainty Treatment of the Counterfactual
The uncertainty discount framework of Section 9.1.3.1 applies to the measured project-scenario component as for Approach 1. The modeled counterfactual component must receive the 1.0 SD true-up discount. Counterfactual model uncertainty must be propagated through the Section 9.1.1 Monte Carlo simulation.
The conservative estimate used for credit issuance must correspond to the 30th percentile of the distribution of across all simulation iterations, in line with Section 9.1.1. Where the 30th-percentile estimate is negative, no credits may be issued for that Reporting Period.
Multi-Model Ensembles
A multi-model ensemble (MME), combining the outputs of two or more constituent biogeochemical models, may be used for SOC quantification or counterfactual estimation, subject to the requirements of Section 9.1.3 and the additional requirements of this Section. An MME comprises the constituent models and a combination procedure (the "ensemble layer") that weights, selects, or otherwise aggregates constituent outputs into a single prediction. Models must meet the following requirements:
- Constituent model eligibility.
- Each constituent model must independently satisfy the eligibility requirements of Section 9.1.3.1 for The Project area. An ensemble must not include a constituent model that does not, in its own right, meet either the established-model or newly-developed-model pathway. A minimum of five eligible constituent models is required.
- Ensemble-level data separation.
- The data-separation requirements and the spatial-blocking requirements apply at the ensemble level. A validation data point must be withheld from the calibration of every constituent model and from the fitting of the ensemble layer. The minimum 20% representative validation hold-out must be calculated against the union of all data used in the development of any constituent model and the ensemble layer. Where the ensemble layer is fitted on data seen by any constituent model during its own calibration, reported ensemble performance is not admissible.
- Ensemble-level performance.
- Performance statistics under Section 9.1.3.1.5 and the bias tests under Section 9.1.3.1.6 must be reported both for the ensemble and for each constituent model. The ensemble must satisfy the R² performance threshold and the no-systematic-bias requirement; constituent-level reporting must be sufficient to demonstrate that the ensemble result does not mask systematic bias in any constituent model.
- Frozen ensemble layer.
- The ensemble layer, including any weighting that varies by parcel, stratum, or covariate, must be documented and fixed at validation. Any change to the ensemble layer constitutes a fresh validation event and requires Isometric approval before use.
- Context-specific eligibility.
- Consistent with Section 9.1.3.1.1, an MME's eligibility is bounded by the validation evidence available for each project area. Validation of an MME over one ecoregion, soil set, or management context does not establish its eligibility for a project in a different context.
- Proprietary ensemble layers.
- Where the ensemble layer is proprietary, it is permitted only where the VVB has independent access to the underlying data and to a documented specification of the combination logic sufficient to reproduce the ensemble output from constituent outputs. Reproducibility under Section 9.1.3.1.2 applies to the ensemble layer as to any other model component.
Storage and Durability of CO2e Removals
Durability
The durability of a Credit is determined relative to the length of the Project Commitment Period as outlined in Section 5.5. The minimum duration of the Project Commitment Period is 40 years, and therefore minimum durability of Credits issued under this Module is 20 years.
Project Risk Assessment and Management
Projects must complete Isometric's Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment in Appendix A and provide supporting evidence, where required. The Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment is independently evaluated by a third-party VVB. The Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment is used to determine the risk profile of the Project, including risks to Credit delivery and storage. Aspects of the Project which have higher risk exposure must be accompanied by an appropriate risk mitigation plan. To safeguard against high risk projects, the Project must score below the indicated thresholds to be eligible for crediting under this Protocol. The Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment must be updated each Reporting Period by the Project Proponent and increased risk scores will result in additional mitigation activities.
Buffer Pool
Projects crediting under this Module may determine their Buffer Pool contribution via either:
- Taking a set 20% contribution to the Buffer Pool for each Reporting Period; or
- Opting-in to the method outlined in Appendix C which determines the Buffer Pool contribution from the Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment in Appendix A. This method requires the risk assessment and contribution to be re-assessed over the project lifetime to capture changing risk profiles.
The additional Buffer Pool contribution that applies where contractual agreements with enrolled landowners or operators do not cover the full duration of the Project Commitment Period is set out in Section 10.4.1 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol.
Ongoing Monitoring for Reversals
Reversal Detection
For any portion of the Project Area which is in an Ongoing Monitoring Period, the Project Proponent is responsible for continuing quantification of soil carbon stocks to monitor for reversals for the full duration of the Ongoing Monitoring Period. Monitoring must follow the procedures and frequency used for the quantification of CO2estored via the measure-and-remeasure approach (Section 9.1.2).
If monitoring reveals a loss event representing a reduction of carbon stored in soil carbon stocks greater than 1% of the cumulative tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub>e removed by the Project (based on total number of Credits issued), the Project Proponent must follow the requirements for reporting, investigating, and compensating for the Reversal set out in Section 10.4.3 of the Improved Soil Management Protocol (Buffer Pool Compensation Process).
If the Project Proponent is unable to conduct the required sampling within a property (e.g., no longer has requisite access to property), the property is considered to have experienced a full Reversal, subject to the alternative procedure set out in Section 10.4.3 of this Module.
Reversal Quantification
Quantification of Reversals must be calculated via the same methods and procedures as are used for the quantification of carbon storage via the measure-and-remeasure approach (Section 9.1.2). Declines in the measured soil carbon stocks within the Project Area are conservatively assumed to represent carbon that was immediately released to the atmosphere. In the scenario that measurements are not able to be carried out in the relevant portion of the Project Area, the area will be considered to have experienced a full reversal of the cumulative carbon removed, subject to the alternative procedure set out in Section 10.4.3 of this Module.
Remote Monitoring of Reversals (Alternative to Default Full-Reversal Treatment)
Where a portion of the Project Area is within an Ongoing Monitoring Period and the Project Proponent has lost contractual access to that portion such that direct field sampling under Section 9.1.2 cannot be conducted, the default treatment under Section 10.4.1 is full Reversal of the cumulative tonnes credited to the affected portion, drawn from the Buffer Pool.
As an alternative to that default, a Project Proponent may elect to apply the Remote Monitoring of Reversals procedure set out in this sub-section, subject to the eligibility conditions, monitoring requirements, and conservatism rules below. Election must be made in the Monitoring Report covering the Reporting Period in which the loss of access first occurred and is irrevocable for that portion of the Project Area until the procedure either succeeds through to the end of the Ongoing Monitoring Period or fails into the default treatment.
The Remote Monitoring of Reversals procedure is materially more restrictive in this Module than in the Cropland Management Module. This is because the majority of grazing-management interventions — stocking-rate changes, grazing-system changes (e.g., continuous to rotational), rest-period management, supplementary feeding regimes, and herd composition changes — are not reliably detectable from publicly or commercially available remote sensing data. Projects whose intervention rests solely or principally on such interventions are not eligible for this procedure, and the default full-reversal treatment under Section 10.4.1 applies on loss of access.
Each Remote Monitoring Report must be independently reviewed by the project's VVB at the same frequency as the project's primary verification cycle.
Eligibility
Remote Monitoring of Reversals is available only where all of the following conditions are met for the affected portion of the Project Area:
-
The project intervention(s) implemented at the property are limited to practices whose continuity or reversion can be reliably detected from publicly or commercially available remote sensing data. Eligible interventions are:
- Pasture renovation, oversowing, or sowing of improved forage species, where the establishment and persistence of the introduced species produces a detectable spectral or phenological signature distinct from the baseline pasture community;
- Riparian, wetland, or sensitive-area exclusion, where fencing or other physical exclusion structures are visible at the project's chosen spatial resolution and the resulting reduction of bare-ground extent or vegetation recovery is remotely detectable over time;
- Bare-ground reduction or ground-cover-improvement interventions, where the project intervention produces a measurable change in bare-ground extent or vegetation cover relative to the baseline, and where the baseline bare-ground extent and within-Reporting-Period variability are characterized at validation;
- Designated rest or set-aside of defined areas from active grazing, where the rested area is spatially delineated and the resulting vegetation recovery is remotely detectable.
Projects whose intervention at the property includes stocking-rate change, grazing-system change (e.g., continuous to rotational), rest-rotation cycle changes within continuously grazed paddocks, supplementary feeding regime change, herd composition change, mineral or feed-additive application, or any other intervention not surface-detectable are not eligible for this procedure for those interventions. Where a project at the property combines an eligible intervention with one or more ineligible interventions, the Remote Monitoring procedure applies only to the credit volume attributable to the eligible intervention. The Project Proponent must demonstrate the credit-volume attribution at Validation; in the absence of an approved attribution method, the project is not eligible for this procedure at that property.
-
The Project Proponent has, at Validation, set out a documented Remote Monitoring Plan for the project that specifies the remote sensing data sources, indices, classification methods, spatial resolution, revisit frequency, accuracy thresholds, ground-truth validation approach, and the project-specific treatment of fire events (see Triggers below), in accordance with the Required Remote Monitoring requirements below. The Remote Monitoring Plan must be in place at the time of loss of access; it cannot be retroactively constructed.
-
The portion of the Project Area to which the procedure is applied does not, in aggregate over the Project Commitment Period, exceed 10% of the original Project Area. Where loss of access exceeds this threshold, the default full-reversal treatment under Section 10.4.1 applies to the surplus.
Required Remote Monitoring
Remote Monitoring under this sub-section must satisfy each of the following requirements:
- Spatial resolution. Sufficient to resolve sub-management-unit variability at the affected property. As a default, ≤ 10 m ground sample distance for optical / multispectral imagery; lower-resolution data may be permitted with documented justification. Where the project intervention depends on detection of physical features such as fencing, ≤ 3 m ground sample distance may be required and must be specified in the Remote Monitoring Plan.
- Revisit frequency. Sufficient to reliably detect each eligible practice within its agronomic or phenological window. As a default, ≤ 14-day revisit during the active growing season for the project's vegetation community, with longer revisit intervals permitted during dormant or non-growing periods where documented at Validation. For projects in fire-prone regions, the Remote Monitoring Plan must additionally support reliable detection of fire events within seven days of occurrence.
- Detection accuracy. The classifier(s) used for each practice must be validated against ground-truth data — including, at minimum, the Project Proponent's own historical sampling campaign data and any auxiliary ground-truth data collected for the purpose — at an accuracy of ≥ 85% per practice, with documented confusion matrices and false-negative rates separately reported. Where the intervention's detectability varies seasonally (e.g., pasture establishment most detectable in early growing season; bare-ground extent most detectable in late dry season), accuracy must be reported separately by season and must meet the 85% threshold in each season relevant to the intervention.
- Independence and reproducibility. RS data sources, classification methods, and accuracy assessments must be documented in sufficient detail that an independent verifier can reproduce the classification outputs from the source data. Proprietary classifiers are permitted only where the verifier has independent access to the underlying data and to a documented specification of the classifier's logic.
- Reporting frequency. A Remote Monitoring Report covering each affected portion of the Project Area must be submitted at every Reporting Period for the duration of the Ongoing Monitoring Period.
Triggers
The following events, detected through the Remote Monitoring procedure, trigger the immediate consequences set out below:
-
Practice reversion. Detection of reversion to baseline conditions, including (but not limited to):
- For pasture renovation, oversowing, or sown forage projects: loss of the introduced-species spectral or phenological signature for two or more consecutive growing seasons, or detection of the baseline pasture community returning to dominance;
- For exclusion projects (riparian, wetland, sensitive-area): visible damage or removal of exclusion fencing, or recurrence of bare-ground or trampled-vegetation signatures within the exclusion zone for two or more consecutive growing seasons;
- For bare-ground-reduction or ground-cover-improvement projects: bare-ground extent within the affected portion returning to baseline levels or exceeding baseline levels for two or more consecutive growing seasons;
- For rest or set-aside projects: detection of grazing pressure indicators within the rested area (e.g., reappearance of trail networks, bare-ground patches, vegetation removal signatures) for two or more consecutive growing seasons.
Practice reversion triggers full Reversal of the cumulative tonnes previously credited to the affected portion of the Project Area, drawn from the Buffer Pool, and termination of the Remote Monitoring procedure for that portion.
-
Acute disturbance. Detection of land-use conversion (e.g., conversion to cropland, settlement, or other non-grazing land use), severe wildfire affecting the soil carbon pool (see fire treatment below), or other acute disturbance events affecting the soil carbon pool triggers full Reversal of the cumulative tonnes previously credited to the affected portion of the Project Area, drawn from the Buffer Pool, and termination of the Remote Monitoring procedure for that portion.
-
Fire events. Treatment of fire events depends on the project context as set out in the Remote Monitoring Plan at Validation:
- Fire-prone systems with documented baseline fire regime. Where the project area lies within a vegetation type whose baseline management regime includes recurrent fire (e.g., savanna, tropical grassland, fire-dependent rangeland), and where the Remote Monitoring Plan documents the baseline fire frequency, severity distribution, and seasonal pattern at Validation, fire events consistent with the documented baseline regime do not trigger Reversal under this Section. Fire events outside the documented baseline regime — defined as fires of materially greater severity, longer duration, larger areal extent, or out-of-season relative to the baseline — trigger Reversal under sub-paragraph 2 above.
- Non-fire-prone systems. Where the baseline regime does not include recurrent fire, any fire event affecting the affected portion of the Project Area triggers Reversal under sub-paragraph 2 above.
In all cases, where a fire event is detected, the Project Proponent must report the event in the next Monitoring Report, with supporting remote-sensed evidence of fire extent, severity (e.g., burn severity index), and post-fire vegetation recovery trajectory.
-
Loss of remote sensing coverage. Where remote sensing data of sufficient quality (per Required Remote Monitoring above) cannot be obtained for the affected portion for two consecutive Reporting Periods, the procedure terminates and full Reversal of the cumulative tonnes previously credited to the affected portion applies, drawn from the Buffer Pool.
-
Drought-driven ground-cover loss in semi-arid and arid systems. In semi-arid and arid project areas, transient drought-driven reductions in vegetation cover and increases in bare-ground extent are part of the baseline interannual variability and do not, in themselves, constitute a Reversal trigger under sub-paragraph 1 above, provided that:
- The Remote Monitoring Plan documents the expected interannual variability in vegetation cover and bare-ground extent at the project area at Validation, including the baseline distribution under documented historical drought events;
- The observed reduction is consistent with the documented variability; and
- Post-drought recovery to baseline cover levels is observable within two consecutive growing seasons following the return of typical precipitation conditions.
Where post-drought recovery does not occur within this window, the loss is treated as Practice Reversion under sub-paragraph 1 above and triggers Reversal accordingly.
-
End of Ongoing Monitoring Period. At the end of the Ongoing Monitoring Period, where Remote Monitoring has not previously triggered a full Reversal, the procedure terminates without further accounting consequences.
Acknowledgments
Isometric would like to thank the following external contributors to this Protocol:
- Lindsay Todman PhD (Cyclops MRV Inc.)
Definitions and Acronyms
- BaselineA set of data describing pre-intervention or control conditions to be used as a reference scenario for comparison.
- BiodiversityThe diversity of life across taxonomic and spatial scales. Biodiversity can be measured within species (i.e. genetic diversity and variations in allele frequencies across populations), between species (i.e. the total number and abundance of species within and across defined regions), within ecosystems (i.e. the variation in functional diversity, such as guilds, life-history traits, and food-webs), and between ecosystems (variation in the services of abiotic and biotic communities across large, landscape-level scales) that support ecoregions and biomes.
- Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Emissions (CO₂e)The amount of CO₂ emissions that would cause the same integrated radiative forcing or temperature change, over a given time horizon, as an emitted amount of GHG or a mixture of GHGs. One common metric of CO₂e is the 100-year Global Warming Potential.
- Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)Activities that remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere and store it in products or geological, terrestrial, and oceanic Reservoirs. CDR includes the enhancement of biological or geochemical sinks and direct air capture (DAC) and storage, but excludes natural CO₂ uptake not directly caused by human intervention.
- Carbon FinanceResources provided to projects that are generating, or are expected to generate, greenhouse gas (GHG) Emission Reductions or Removals.
- ConversionA retirement pathway in which an existing EAC is retired to enable the issuance of a new EAC with different specified characteristics.
- CounterfactualAn assessment of what would have happened in the absence of a particular intervention – i.e., assuming the Baseline scenario.
- Cradle-to-GraveConsidering impacts at each stage of a product's life cycle, from the time natural resources are extracted from the ground and processed through each subsequent stage of manufacturing, transportation, product use, and ultimately, disposal.
- CreditA publicly visible uniquely identifiable Credit Certificate Issued by a Registry that gives the owner of the Credit the right to account for one net metric tonne of Verified CO₂e Removal or Reduction. In the case of this Standard, the net tonne of CO₂e Removal or Reduction comes from a Project Validated against a Certified Protocol.
- Direct EmissionsEmissions that are produced by a specific CDR process and are directly controllable.
- DurabilityThe amount of time carbon removed from the atmosphere by an intervention – for example, a CDR project – is expected to reside in a given Reservoir, taking into account both physical risks and socioeconomic constructs (such as contracts) to protect the Reservoir in question.
- Ecological IntegrityThe ability of an ecosystem to support and maintain ecological processes and a diverse community of organisms. It is measured as the degree to which a diverse community of native organisms is maintained, and is used as a proxy for ecological resilience, intended as the capacity of an ecosystem to adapt in the face of stressors, while maintaining the functions of interest.
- Embodied EmissionsLife cycle GHG emissions associated with production of materials, transportation, and construction or other processes for goods or buildings.
- Emission ReductionsLowering future GHG releases from a specific entity.
- EmissionsThe term used to describe greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere as a result of Project activities.
- GHG StatementA document submitted alongside Claimed Removals and/or Reductions that details the calculations associated with a Removal or Reduction, including the Project's emissions, Removals, Reductions and Leakages, presented together in net metric tonnes of CO₂e per Removal or Reduction.
- Greenhouse Gas (GHG)Those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic (human-caused), that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of terrestrial radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect, whereby heat is trapped in Earth’s atmosphere (CDR Primer, 2022).
- Issuance (of a Credit)Credits are issued to the Credit Account of a Project Proponent with whom Isometric has a Validated Protocol after an Order for Verification and Credit Issuance services from a Buyer and once a Verified Removal or Reduction has taken place.
- LeakageThe increase in GHG emissions outside the geographic or temporal boundary of a project that results from that project's activities.
- Life Cycle Analysis (LCA)An analysis of the balance of positive and negative emissions associated with a certain process, which includes all of the flows of CO₂ and other GHGs, along with other environmental or social impacts of concern.
- ModuleIndependent components of Isometric Certified Protocols which are transferable between and applicable to different Protocols.
- Monte Carlo SimulationsA mathematical approach for estimating the possible outcomes of an uncertain event through repeated random sampling. It can also be referred to as a "multiple probability simulation".
- ProjectAn activity or process or group of activities or processes that alter the condition of a Baseline and leads to Removals or Reductions.
- Project Design DocumentThe document, written by a Project Proponent, which records key characteristics of a Project and which forms the basis for Project Validation and evaluation in accordance with the relevant Certified Protocol. (Also known as “PDD”).
- Project ProponentThe organization that develops and/or has overall legal ownership or control of a Removal or Reduction Project.
- Project boundaryThe defined temporal and geographical boundary of a Project.
- ProtocolA document that describes how to quantitatively assess the net amount of CO₂ removed by a process. To Isometric, a Protocol is specific to a Project Proponent's process and comprised of Modules representing the Carbon Fluxes involved in the CDR process. A Protocol measures the full carbon impact of a process against the Baseline of it not occurring.
- Remote SensingThe use of satellite, aircraft and terrestrial deployed sensors to detect and measure characteristics of the Earth's surface, as well as the spectral, spatial and temporal analysis of this data to estimate biomass and biomass change.
- RemovalThe term used to represent the CO₂ taken out of the atmosphere as a result of a CDR process.
- ReservoirA location where carbon is stored. This can be via physical barriers (such as geological formations) or through partitioning based on chemical or biological processes (such as mineralization or photosynthesis).
- ReversalThe escape of CO₂ to the atmosphere after it has been stored, and after a Credit has been Issued. A Reversal is classified as avoidable if a Project Proponent has influence or control over it and it likely could have been averted through application of reasonable risk mitigation measures. Any other Reversals will be classified as unavoidable.
- SOCSoil Organic Carbon
- SSRsSources, Sinks and Reservoirs
- Sensitivity AnalysisAn analysis of how much different components in a Model contribute to the overall Uncertainty.
- SinkAny process, activity, or mechanism that removes a greenhouse gas, a precursor to a greenhouse gas, or an aerosol from the atmosphere.
- SourceAny process or activity that releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol, or a precursor of a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
- StakeholderAny person or entity who can potentially affect or be affected by Isometric or an individual Project activity.
- StorageDescribes the addition of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere to a reservoir, which serves as its ultimate destination. This is also referred to as “sequestration”.
- System BoundaryGHG sources, sinks and reservoirs (SSRs) associated with the project boundary and included in the GHG Statement.
- UncertaintyA lack of knowledge of the exact amount of CO₂ removed by a particular process, Uncertainty may be quantified using probability distributions, confidence intervals, or variance estimates.
- ValidationA systematic and independent process for evaluating the reasonableness of the assumptions, limitations and methods that support a Project and assessing whether the Project conforms to the criteria set forth in the Isometric Standard and the Protocol by which the Project is governed. Validation must be completed by an Isometric approved third-party (VVB).
- Validation and Verification Bodies (VVBs)Third-party auditing organizations that are experts in their sector and used to determine if a project conforms to the rules, regulations, and standards set out by a governing body. A VVB must be approved by Isometric prior to conducting validation and verification.
- VerificationA process for evaluating and confirming the net Removals and Reductions for a Project, using data and information collected from the Project and assessing conformity with the criteria set forth in the Isometric Standard and the Protocol by which it is governed. Verification must be completed by an Isometric approved third-party (VVB).
Appendix A: Risk Assessment
The Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment is used to assess the overall delivery and storage risk associated with the grazing lands management activities and may inform the Buffer Pool contribution during Credit delivery (see Section 10.3). The assessment must first be filled in by the Project Proponent with corresponding evidence supplied and must then be validated by a VVB. During project Validation, discrepancies between the Project Proponent's self reported score and VVB may result in monitoring or risk mitigation activities, or project ineligibility. Eligible projects must have an initial risk score ≤ 20 and initial risk category scores at or below the following thresholds:
- Project Proponent Capacity Risk ≤ 7
- Financial Viability Risk ≤ 8
- Social Governance Risk ≤ 11
- Disturbance Risk ≤ 13
All risk categories have a minimum score of 0, regardless of the outcome of the Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment.
For projects with discrete management units, the risk assessment must include all geographic areas relevant to the Project. For risk indicators that are geographically explicit (e.g., disturbance risks), the score may be calculated via an area-weighted average and rounded up to the nearest whole number (or, for Disturbance Risk indicators using 0.25-increment subcomponents, rounded up to the nearest 0.25).
If Project Proponents choose to forgo a flat 20% Buffer Pool contribution (see Section 10.3), the Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment will inform Buffer Pool contributions for the Project according to the process outlined in Appendix C for each Reporting Period and in accordance with the requirements in Section 10.3.
After each new Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment evaluation, Isometric will update the required percentage of newly issued Credits that must be contributed to the Buffer Pool by the Project. We encourage Project Proponents to continuously monitor, mitigate, and reduce risks.
**Table A1.** Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment, with the score to be filled out for each question.
Risk Category | Risk Indicator | Evidence | Scoring Guidelines | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Project Proponent Capacity Risk | Does the Project Proponent maintain staff with domain expertise relevant for grazing-lands soil organic carbon projects? (e.g., sustainable grazing or rangeland management, livestock management, rangeland ecology or agroecology, soil science, carbon accounting) | Project's team structure | If no, describe how gaps in relevant expertise will be filled, +1. | |
Does the Project Proponent maintain a staff presence in the local vicinity (within one day of travel) of all portions of the project area? | Project's team structure | If no, +2. | ||
Was the Project Proponent established more than 12 months ago? | Project Proponent declaration | If no, +1. | ||
Does the Project Proponent have prior experience in agricultural or grazing-lands carbon projects? | Review of Project Proponent provided evidence and independent research | If yes, −1. | ||
Has the Project Proponent abandoned or failed previous projects? | Review of projects on other registries | If yes, +3. | ||
What proportion of the project area requires active enforcement against external threats (e.g., unauthorised grazing or encroachment by neighbouring graziers, cattle rustling, illegal land clearing, poaching of associated wildlife, illegal water extraction)? | Peer-reviewed publications, local or national government databases, NGO reports and assessments, site security assessment, satellite data, data on enforcement from other projects in the same region, local or national reports on environmental crimes or violations | If > 50% of project area, +2. If 25 to 50% of project area, +1. If no active enforcement required, −1. | ||
Financial Viability Risk | Has The Project secured funding to cover all activities required before carbon and livestock revenue accrues? | Project financial plan | If > 90%, −2. If > 80%, −1. If < 50%, +1. If < 30%, +2. If < 10%, fail. | |
What is the projected time to reach financial breakeven? | Project financial plan | If > 20 years, fail. If 15 to 20 years, +3. If 10 to 15 years, +2. If 5 to 10 years, +1. | ||
Is the budget reasonable given the proposed project activities and ex-ante estimates for carbon sequestration? Budget should at minimum include: personnel, livestock-management equipment, fencing and water infrastructure, monitoring and measurement (including soil sampling campaigns and any remote-sensing services), travel, and certification fees. | Project financial plan | If no, +2. | ||
Does the project financial plan demonstrate sufficient cash flow throughout the full Project Commitment Period to maintain project carbon stocks, considering the opportunity cost of alternative land-management strategies (e.g., reversion to higher-stocking grazing, conversion to cropping, or non-agricultural land-use change)? | Project financial plan | If continued financial incentive is low compared to likely opportunity cost of reversion or alternative land use, +2. | ||
Does the project financial plan rely on future increases in market price for Carbon credits? | Project financial plan | If yes, +1. | ||
Social Governance Risk | Are there currently or have there been disputes over land ownership, customary tenure, or grazing rights over the last 20 years? | Jurisdictional history | If yes, +2. | |
Does the government have a history of revoking legal or customary agreements regarding land ownership, access, usage, or grazing rights? | Jurisdictional history | If yes, +2. | ||
Does the project host country score below the 40th percentile on 3+ of the Worldwide Governance Indicators over the last 10 years? | If yes, +2. | |||
Does the government have an NDC in place that addresses corresponding adjustments / prevents double-counting of project Credits and NDC contributions? | National registries | If no, +1. | ||
Does The Project have a detailed benefit-sharing plan that includes: clear distribution mechanisms among graziers, pastoralists, and any other affected land users; transparent criteria for beneficiary selection; a grievance resolution process; monitoring and reporting procedures? | Project financial plan, stakeholder engagement documentation | If no, +2. If missing elements, +1. If legally binding with all elements, −1. If audited by 3rd party with all elements, −1. | ||
Does the Project Proponent have a presence on human rights, environmental, or labor infraction lists? | National registries | If yes, fail. | ||
Does the Project Proponent have ongoing legal disputes? | National registries | If yes, +1. | ||
Does the Project Proponent have a presence in negative press content? | Online search | If yes, +1. | ||
Have projects on Indigenous or Community Lands been identified? | Cross-reference project documentation with the LandMark Global Platform of Indigenous and Community Lands, and with Global Forest Watch where forested portions of the Project Area exist | If no, fail. | ||
Are baseline activities primarily subsistence-driven (e.g., subsistence pastoralism, smallholder mixed crop-livestock systems)? | Land use documentation, socioeconomic surveys | If yes, proceed to (a). If no, proceed to (b). | ||
(a) Are there anticipated or demonstrated net positive community impacts for graziers, pastoralists, smallholder herders, and mobile herders affected by the project? | Community impact assessment, project financial plan, socio-economic surveys | If no, +2. | ||
(b) What is the net present value (NPV) of alternative land use or management compared to project NPV? Alternatives may include reversion to higher-intensity grazing, conversion to cropping, conversion to urban or industrial use, or sale and consolidation. | NPV analysis comparing alternative uses to project activities over Crediting Period, price forecasts, discount rate justification | If > 150%, fail. If 100 to 150%, +3. If 50 to 100%, +2. If 20 to 50%, +1. If −20 to −50%, −1. If −50 to −100%, −2. If −100% or more, −3. | ||
Are opportunity cost risk mitigations in place? | Legal agreements protecting carbon stocks, non-profit status documentation, grant/funding agreements | Legally protected for Crediting Period, −1. Legally protected for ≥ 100 years, −2. Non-profit status or secured additional funding, −1. | ||
Where the Project intersects with mobile pastoralist systems, customary grazing routes, or transhumance corridors, are these rights formally recognised in legal documentation, and have they been addressed in the PDD's stakeholder engagement and free, prior and informed consent (FPIC) procedures? | Documented land tenure arrangements, FPIC documentation, agreements with regional pastoralist organisations, customary land use mapping | If no mobile pastoralism or transhumance affects the Project Area, 0. If present and rights are formally recognised and addressed via FPIC, 0. If present and rights are not formally recognised but FPIC has been obtained from all affected groups, +1. If present and rights are neither formally recognised nor addressed via FPIC, fail. | ||
Disturbance Risk | Fire risk | If > 10, +1. If > 30, +2. If > 50, +3. If > 75, fail. Where the Project Area lies within a vegetation type whose baseline management regime includes recurrent fire (e.g., savanna, fire-dependent rangeland) and where this baseline regime is documented in the Project Monitoring Plan in accordance with Section 10.4.3, the scoring above applies to fires of severity, extent, or seasonality outside the documented baseline regime; baseline-consistent fire events do not contribute to the score. | ||
Forage pest and disease outbreak risk (e.g., locusts, armyworm, grass smut, leaf rust, invasive herbivorous insects) | Regional third-party maps, FAO Locust Watch (where applicable), if available | If high, +2. If medium, +1. If low, 0. | ||
Livestock disease outbreak risk (endemic or emerging livestock diseases, including foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), lumpy skin disease (LSD), anthrax, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, peste des petits ruminants, bluetongue, and equivalent species-relevant diseases, where outbreak would force destocking or affect the Project's grazing management regime) | World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) regional reports, national veterinary services, project-region disease surveillance data | If high, +2. If medium, +1. If low, 0. | ||
Extreme weather (temperature — heat and cold) | IPCC AR6 — See Appendix B for scoring | Value from Appendix B, Table B1 | ||
Extreme weather (hydrologic — flood and drought; drought is particularly material for grazing systems, where multi-year drought can force destocking and reduce ground cover) | IPCC AR6 — See Appendix B for scoring | Value from Appendix B, Table B1 | ||
Coastal risks (sea level rise, storm surge, tropical cyclones, salinity intrusion) | Regional third-party maps, if available | If high, +2. If medium, +1. If low, 0. | ||
Geologic risks (earthquakes, tsunami, volcanoes) | If historical hazards in area, +1. | |||
Surrounding anthropogenic activities pose environmental risk (e.g., toxic pollution, neighbouring mining, oil and gas operations, cropland conversion pressure, urban expansion, road or pipeline development) | Satellite imagery, site visit | If yes, +1. | ||
Ecological Resilience | Project Design Document; baseline vegetation assessment | If pasture or sward composition includes a substantial perennial component (≥ 50% perennial cover) and a diverse mix of native or well-adapted species (at least double the locally typical species count for the vegetation type), −1. If > 80% of forage species are documented as heat- or drought-tolerant for the project's climatic conditions, −1. | ||
Flood plain hazards | Project area overlap with identified floodplain based on Nardi et al., 2019 or regional/local equivalent | If > 25% of project area located in flood plain, +1. If > 50% of project area located in flood plain, +2. | ||
Inherent erosion risk (considering grazing-specific drivers including stocking-density-induced bare ground, livestock-trail networks, and watering-point sacrifice areas, in addition to the underlying rainfall-erosivity × soil-erodibility × slope-length-and-steepness factors) | Assess mean inherent erosion risk potential for the project area (R × K × LS) using Borrelli et al. (2022) or equivalent localized datasets, supplemented by site-specific assessment of grazing-induced erosion drivers | If > 20 t/ha/yr, +1. If > 50 t/ha/yr, +2. If implementing management practices which reduce erosion risk (e.g., stocking-density management, rotational grazing, riparian exclusion, watering-point hardening), −1. | ||
Bush or woody encroachment risk (relevant in arid and semi-arid grazing systems where encroachment can suppress herbaceous SOC inputs, shift the system carbon balance, and undermine the Credited Practice; not applicable in mesic or temperate grazing systems where encroachment is not a documented risk) | Regional encroachment monitoring data, baseline vegetation cover assessment, peer-reviewed studies on encroachment dynamics in the project's vegetation type | If high encroachment risk under current and projected climate, +2. If moderate, +1. If low or not applicable to the project's vegetation type, 0. |
Appendix B: Calculating Extreme Weather Risk Scores
The following section outlines how Isometric calculates the indicator scores for climate-related extreme weather disturbance risks to carbon permanence within a project's region (**Figure B1**). Project Proponents should use **Table B1** to look up the Isometric-calculated values for their project's region and include those scores in their Risk Assessment (see Appendix A).
Extreme weather risks are assessed via two indicators: a temperature indicator (extreme heat and/or cold) and a hydrologic indicator (flooding and/or drought). Each indicator includes both historical data (1961–2015) and projected future extreme events. Historical data indicate the likelihood of extreme events based on past climate patterns, e.g., projects in regions with extended dry periods are expected to experience increased water stress as part of their typical climate. Climate model projections describe how changing climate conditions, relative to historical patterns, might present an increased risk of disturbances. Areas where there is a larger shift towards extreme conditions under future climate relative to their historical baseline have a greater disturbance risk (e.g., drier conditions relative to historical averages increase risk for drought-driven destocking, reduced forage production, and bare-ground exposure in grazing systems).
To calculate the scores in Table B1, Isometric uses values from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report. The temperature indicator is calculated using data describing the annual number of frost days (FD, minimum temperature below 0°C) and annual number of days with a maximum temperature above 40°C () to capture extreme cold and extreme heat risks, respectively. The hydrologic indicator is calculated using data describing the maximum 5-day precipitation () and annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) to capture risks of flooding and drought, respectively. All values come from the CMIP6 climate models. Future projections use the SSP2-4.5 medium term (2041–2060) scenario and are assessed as the change in value relative to a historical baseline (1961–1990).
For each indicator subcomponent, the region's terrestrial median value is compared with the global terrestrial distribution of the same variable (**Table B2**). To convert the regional value into a subscore, regional values below the global 75th percentile are considered Low Risk, regional values equal to or greater than the global 75th percentile but below the 90th percentile are Medium Risk, and any regional values equal to or greater than the global 90th percentile are High Risk. Low Risks are given a subscore of 0, Medium Risks are 0.25, and High Risks are 0.5. The overall score for each of the indicators is calculated by summing the corresponding subscores, as described below:
Projected change in the number of frost days is not included as a subcomponent since it is projected that frost days will decline under future climate across the globe, representing a low risk of future extreme cold events.
**Figure B1.** Map and lookup table for IPCC regional codes
**Table B1.** Regional Lookup Table of Disturbance Risk
Region | Indicator | Variable | Time | Value | Risk | Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NW North America (NWN) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 224.2 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 23.5 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | -1.4 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 54.4 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 11.9 | High | 0.5 | ||||
NE North America (NEN) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 242.9 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 25.1 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | -2.7 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 50.6 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 11.8 | High | 0.5 | ||||
Western North America (WNA) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 128.4 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.9 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 2 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 40.6 | Low | 0 | 0 | |
Change (Days) | -0.2 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 67.3 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 5.5 | Low | 0 | ||||
Central North America (CNA) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 104.9 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 4.7 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 8.9 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 23.7 | Low | 0 | 0.25 | |
Change (Days) | -0.4 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 84.3 | Medium | 0.25 | |||
Change (%) | 6.7 | Low | 0 | ||||
Eastern North America (ENA) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 116 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.1 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0.6 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 15.5 | Low | 0 | 0.75 | |
Change (Days) | -0.3 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 89.4 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 9 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
Northern Central America (NCA) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 15.9 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 4.7 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 8.7 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 51.6 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | -0.2 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 92.9 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 6 | Low | 0 | ||||
Southern Central America (SCA) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0.1 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.5 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 1.7 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 39.7 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | -1.6 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 134.3 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 4.3 | Low | 0 | ||||
Caribbean (CAR) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 24.3 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | 0.1 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 99.9 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 0.8 | Low | 0 | ||||
NW South America (NWS) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0.6 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.1 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0.8 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 28.6 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | -0.2 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 133 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 7.5 | Low | 0 | ||||
Northern South America (NSA) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.5 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 9.4 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 46.7 | Low | 0 | 1 | |
Change (Days) | 9.7 | High | 0.5 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 111.6 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 5.5 | Low | 0 | ||||
NE South America (NES) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.3 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 4.4 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 95 | High | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
Change (Days) | 6.3 | High | 0.5 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 144.3 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 5.7 | Low | 0 | ||||
South America-Monsoon (SAM) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 7.5 | Low | 0 | 0.25 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 2.2 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 11.5 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 64.8 | Medium | 0.25 | 1.25 | |
Change (Days) | 13.7 | High | 0.5 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 133.7 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 6 | Low | 0 | ||||
SW South America (SWS) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 35.8 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 65.9 | Medium | 0.25 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | -4.2 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 83 | Medium | 0.25 | |||
Change (%) | -0.9 | Low | 0 | ||||
SE South America (SES) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 16.6 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 2.8 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 5.5 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 36.3 | Low | 0 | 0.75 | |
Change (Days) | 0.4 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 105.1 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 8.4 | Low | 0 | ||||
Southern South America (SSA) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 75.4 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0.1 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 20.5 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | 1.6 | High | 0.5 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 57.5 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 3.4 | Low | 0 | ||||
Northern Europe (NEU) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 150.3 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 18.5 | Low | 0 | 0.25 | |
Change (Days) | 0 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 52.8 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 10 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
Western & Central Europe (WCE) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 109.7 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.1 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0.7 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 22.8 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | 1.3 | High | 0.5 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 55 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 8.5 | Low | 0 | ||||
Eastern Europe (EEU) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 171.4 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 1 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 2.7 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 27.6 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | 1.1 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 42.9 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 10 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
Mediterranean (MED) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 27.6 | Low | 0 | 0.25 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 6 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 11.8 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 75 | High | 0.5 | 1 | |
Change (Days) | 6.7 | High | 0.5 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 49.5 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 3.9 | Low | 0 | ||||
Western Africa (WAF) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | 1 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 24 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (Days) | 26.4 | High | 0.5 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 83.5 | High | 0.5 | 1.25 | |
Change (Days) | -0.4 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 85.2 | Medium | 0.25 | |||
Change (%) | 19.6 | High | 0.5 | ||||
Central Africa (CAF) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | 0.25 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 11.1 | Medium | 0.25 | |||
Change (Days) | 9.2 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 61.8 | Low | 0 | 0.75 | |
Change (Days) | -0.1 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 84.4 | Medium | 0.25 | |||
Change (%) | 14.9 | High | 0.5 | ||||
North Eastern Africa (NEAF) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | 1 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 16.1 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (Days) | 15.4 | High | 0.5 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 80.4 | High | 0.5 | 1 | |
Change (Days) | -2.1 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 64.6 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 15.4 | High | 0.5 | ||||
South Eastern Africa (SEAF) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0.3 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 78.5 | High | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
Change (Days) | 0.4 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 91.9 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 9.7 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
West Southern Africa (WSAF) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 1.2 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.1 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 3 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 108.7 | High | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
Change (Days) | 10.5 | High | 0.5 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 87.6 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 2 | Low | 0 | ||||
East Southern Africa (ESAF) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 2.7 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.7 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 2.8 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 68.7 | Medium | 0.25 | 1.25 | |
Change (Days) | 4.3 | High | 0.5 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 127.5 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 6 | Low | 0 | ||||
Madagascar (MDG) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0.2 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 46.7 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | -1.2 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 175.7 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 5.8 | Low | 0 | ||||
Russian-Arctic (RAR) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 271.3 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 31.5 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | -4.3 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 39.7 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 16.7 | High | 0.5 | ||||
West Siberia (WSB) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 203.1 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.7 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 2 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 31.4 | Low | 0 | 0.25 | |
Change (Days) | -0.4 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 37.5 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 10.8 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
East Siberia (ESB) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 233.9 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0.1 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 34.1 | Low | 0 | 0.25 | |
Change (Days) | -3.7 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 54.5 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 11.5 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
Russian-Far-East (RFE) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 238.1 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 28.8 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | -3.2 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 65.1 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 14.4 | High | 0.5 | ||||
West Central Asia (WCA) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 95.8 | High | 0.5 | 1.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 22 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (Days) | 17.5 | High | 0.5 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 113.6 | High | 0.5 | 0.75 | |
Change (Days) | -0.3 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 42.5 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 10 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
East Central Asia (ECA) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 195.6 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.5 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 2.5 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 75.1 | High | 0.5 | 1 | |
Change (Days) | -6.2 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 30.5 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 12.9 | High | 0.5 | ||||
Tibetan-Plateau (TIB) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 258.6 | High | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 1.6 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0.4 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 42.3 | Low | 0 | 0.75 | |
Change (Days) | -2.6 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 80.9 | Medium | 0.25 | |||
Change (%) | 11.6 | High | 0.5 | ||||
East Asia (EAS) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 91.7 | Medium | 0.25 | 0.25 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.3 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0.7 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 29.1 | Low | 0 | 0.75 | |
Change (Days) | 0.1 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 132 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 9.6 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
South Asia (SAS) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 7.9 | Low | 0 | 1 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 33.1 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (Days) | 14.5 | High | 0.5 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 93.9 | High | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
Change (Days) | -3.3 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 132.2 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 12 | High | 0.5 | ||||
Southeast Asia (SEA) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0.3 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 1.1 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 26.8 | Low | 0 | 0.75 | |
Change (Days) | 0.8 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 168.4 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 7.3 | Low | 0 | ||||
Northern Australia (NAU) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | 0.75 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 11.8 | Medium | 0.25 | |||
Change (Days) | 20.4 | High | 0.5 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 95.7 | High | 0.5 | 1.25 | |
Change (Days) | 0.7 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 163.7 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 7.7 | Low | 0 | ||||
Central Australia (CAU) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0.1 | Low | 0 | 1 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 27.8 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (Days) | 75.8 | High | 0.5 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 27.3 | Low | 0 | 1 | |
Change (Days) | 3.5 | High | 0.5 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 86.5 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 4.7 | Low | 0 | ||||
Eastern Australia (EAU) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 1.4 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 2.7 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 4.2 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 35.8 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | -0.5 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 120.6 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 5.6 | Low | 0 | ||||
Southern Australia (SAU) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 1.3 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 7.1 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 6.9 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 40.2 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | 2 | High | 0.5 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 60.3 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (%) | 2.8 | Low | 0 | ||||
New Zealand (NZ) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 5.9 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 13.8 | Low | 0 | 0.75 | |
Change (Days) | 0.5 | Medium | 0.25 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 92.3 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 5.6 | Low | 0 | ||||
South Pacific Ocean (SPO) | Temperature | Frost Days | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | 0 |
Days > 40°C | Historical | 0 | Low | 0 | |||
Change (Days) | 0 | Low | 0 | ||||
Hydrological | CDD | Historical | 19.4 | Low | 0 | 0.5 | |
Change (Days) | -0.5 | Low | 0 | ||||
5-Day Precip | Historical | 183.3 | High | 0.5 | |||
Change (%) | 3.8 | Low | 0 |
**Table B2.** Global Benchmark Values for Extreme Weather Risks.
Time Frame | Variable | Median | 75th% | 90th% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical | Frost Days | 89.8 | 94.1 | 97.5 |
Days Max Temp > 40°C | 9.9 | 15.1 | 21.9 | |
Consecutive Dry Days | 63.7 | 71 | 76.2 | |
Maximum 5-day Precipitation (mm) | 79.5 | 86 | 90.4 | |
Projected Future | Frost Days | |||
Days Max Temp > 40°C | 9.9 | 11.8 | 14.6 | |
Consecutive Dry Days | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | |
Maximum 5-day Precipitation (%) | 8.9 | 11.5 | 14.1 |
Appendix C: Buffer Pool Calculations
By default, Projects are subject to a flat 20% Buffer Pool contribution as outlined in Section 10.3. Project Proponents may opt to calculate a project-specific Buffer Pool contribution based on the outputs of their Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment for each Reporting Period.
The following steps are used to convert the outputs of the Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment into a Buffer Pool contribution:
- Sum the total score for each risk category in Table A1.
- Map the risk score for each risk category into a Buffer Pool contribution using Table C1.
- Sum the Buffer Pool contribution for each risk category to obtain the total Buffer Pool contribution.
**Table C1.** Risk score to Buffer Pool contribution conversion for each risk category.
Risk Category | Cumulative Risk Score | Buffer Pool Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Project Proponent Capacity Risk | 0 | 2.5% |
1 | 2.6% | |
2 | 3.1% | |
3 | 4.8% | |
4 | 7.7% | |
5 | 9.4% | |
6 | 9.9% | |
7 | 10.0% | |
Financial Viability Risk | 0 | 2.5% |
1 | 2.6% | |
2 | 2.9% | |
3 | 3.9% | |
4 | 6.3% | |
5 | 8.6% | |
6 | 9.6% | |
7 | 9.9% | |
8 | 10.0% | |
Social Governance Risk | 0 | 2.5% |
1 | 2.6% | |
2 | 2.7% | |
3 | 3.1% | |
4 | 3.9% | |
5 | 5.3% | |
6 | 7.2% | |
7 | 8.6% | |
8 | 9.4% | |
9 | 9.8% | |
10 | 9.9% | |
11 | 10.0% | |
Disturbance Risk | 0 | 2.5% |
0.25 | 2.5% | |
0.5 | 2.6% | |
0.75 | 2.6% | |
1 | 2.6% | |
1.25 | 2.6% | |
1.5 | 2.6% | |
1.75 | 2.6% | |
2 | 2.7% | |
2.25 | 2.7% | |
2.5 | 2.8% | |
2.75 | 2.8% | |
3 | 2.9% | |
3.25 | 3.0% | |
3.5 | 3.1% | |
3.75 | 3.2% | |
4 | 3.3% | |
4.25 | 3.5% | |
4.5 | 3.7% | |
4.75 | 3.9% | |
5 | 4.2% | |
5.25 | 4.5% | |
5.5 | 4.8% | |
5.75 | 5.1% | |
6 | 5.5% | |
6.25 | 5.9% | |
6.5 | 6.3% | |
6.75 | 6.6% | |
7 | 7.0% | |
7.25 | 7.4% | |
7.5 | 7.7% | |
7.75 | 8.0% | |
8 | 8.3% | |
8.25 | 8.6% | |
8.5 | 8.8% | |
8.75 | 9.0% | |
9 | 9.2% | |
9.25 | 9.3% | |
9.5 | 9.4% | |
9.75 | 9.5% | |
10 | 9.6% | |
10.25 | 9.7% | |
10.5 | 9.7% | |
10.75 | 9.8% | |
11 | 9.8% | |
11.25 | 9.9% | |
11.5 | 9.9% | |
11.75 | 9.9% | |
12 | 9.9% | |
12.25 | 9.9% | |
12.5 | 9.9% | |
12.75 | 10.0% | |
13 | 10.0% |
The Buffer Pool contribution for each risk category is determined using a sigmoid function described by Equation C1. The Buffer Pool contribution for each risk category ranges from 2.5% to 10%.
(Equation C1)
Where:
- is the Buffer Pool contribution for a given risk category.
- is the range of Buffer Pool contributions within each risk category (2.5–10%).
- is the steepness parameter of the sigmoid curve and determines how quickly the function transitions between its minimum and maximum values.
- is the midpoint of the sigmoid curve.
- is the risk score for a given risk category.
- is the value above which The Project fails the Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment, as set out in Appendix A.
Regardless of whether the Project is taking the flat contribution or risk assessment-adjusted contribution, an additional 5% will be added each Reporting Period if there are no contractual obligations for project participation for all of the Project Area for the full Project Commitment Period in place.
Project-Specific Buffer Pool Contribution Example
The Project is a rotational-grazing intervention on semi-arid rangeland in a fire-prone savanna ecoregion. The Project Proponent is a recently-established entity with local staff presence; project financing is partially secured with a longer-than-typical time to breakeven; the Project Area sits on land with documented historical tenure complexity and a multi-stakeholder community structure; and the ecoregion carries moderate fire and drought disturbance risk under both historical and projected climate conditions.
The Project has completed the Grazing Lands Soil Carbon Risk Assessment and obtained the following risk scores in a Reporting Period:
- Project Proponent Capacity Risk = 3
- Financial Viability Risk = 5
- Social Governance Risk = 4
- Disturbance Risk = 6.5
Mapping these risk scores to Table C1, the total Buffer Pool contribution for The Project is:
4.8% + 8.6% + 3.9% + 6.3% = 23.6%
If The Project did not have contracts in place for all enrolled properties for the full duration of the Crediting Period, the total would be 28.6%.
In this example, the risk-assessment-adjusted contribution (23.6%, or 28.6% with the contract-coverage adder) exceeds the default flat contribution (20%, or 25% with the adder). The Project Proponent would therefore typically opt for the flat contribution rather than the risk-based methodology. The risk-based methodology benefits Projects whose risk profile is materially lower than the implicit risk profile of the flat 20% default — typically Projects with experienced Project Proponents, secure financing, strong tenure and governance contexts, and low-disturbance ecoregions.
Appendix D: Market Leakage Parameters
Isometric has carried out a literature review of and values to inform , as well as values for for certain regions. Where The Project falls into these regions, the default values provided must be used. This is because understanding which values to use from literature is challenging as academic papers are typically not written with this purpose or audience in mind. Isometric has completed this work for certain regions to lessen this complexity and provide consistency across projects.
These default values also serve as an example of appropriate values to select, however it should be noted that the quality of research differs across regions.
The following sections set out the procedure to be followed to obtain and values and set out the default values to be used for the regions studied.
Regions Studied
The regions considered in the literature review were:
- Brazil
- Panama
- Mexico
- United States
These regions were selected following a review of projected project demand. Isometric will update this analysis with additional regions iteratively based on demand. Values for other regions will be reviewed by Isometric on a case by case basis.
Values
represents the amount of production that is diverted to other locations. The value does not provide any information on where or in what manner that production is produced.
Procedure for determining values:
- Define a crop-region pair broadly enough to reasonably assume that the supply of all other crop and regions is zero. For example, for livestock, “beef in Mato Grasso” is too specific and “all meat globally” is too broad, “beef in South America” may come closer to a balance.
- Examine the existing academic literature for papers that estimate the supply/demand of the crop-region pair or some other similar pair. For example, we might use “meat in South America” in lieu of “beef in South America” if the former estimates are available.
- Ensure that the paper meets the criteria for a valid estimate:
- Analysis uses either a “dynamic panel” or “instrumental variables” technique.
- Based on time-series variation in prices, rather than cross-sectional (i.e., using prices that are varying over time, rather than spatial differences in transportation costs).
- Published in the last 15 years in a reputable economics or land use journal, or is published in a report for a reputable organization such as the European Union or California Air Resources Board.
- Analysis clearly notes whether the estimate is to be interpreted as a short-run or long-run estimate.
- Analysis uses planting season prices (rather than harvest season).
- Use the appropriate formula to calculate from the supply and demand elasticity
- In cases where no academic literature exists in the relevant context, select the most similar available default value (e.g., for cocoa, we might use the default value for coffee).
Where possible:
- Supply and demand elasticities used should be estimated within the same paper; and
- Paper should be cited by a reputable organization compiling a meta-analysis or parameterizing a partial equilibrium model for policy analysis (CARB, EU, FAO, etc.).
Table D1. default values.
Livestock rows (in bold) apply to grazing projects; other commodity rows apply only where a distinct crop commodity is displaced.
Geography | Crop | εdc | εsc | IS | Key citation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global | Calories (rice, wheat, corn, soy) | -0.05 | 0.12 | 0.70 | Roberts and Schlenker12 |
Global | Coffee | -0.305 | 0.285 | 0.48 | Akiyama and Varangis13 |
Global | Cocoa | -0.075 | 0.075 | 0.50 | Askari and Cummings14 |
South America | Livestock | -0.40 | 0.4 | 0.5 | Fragoso et al.15 |
North America | Livestock | -0.40 | 1.6 | 0.80 | Lawrence et al.16 |
Values
Procedure for determining values:
In an ideal world, there would be estimates of the specific types of land use that were converted and their locations. However, this data is not available. Instead, The Project Proponent should focus on the most important elements of potential land use change from a carbon emissions perspective. values proposed aim to capture the net effect of a one unit removal of crop area on forestland conversion. These values will be smaller in magnitude than values that incorporate the possibility of conversion of grazing land or the conversion of lower-value crops to higher-value crops. Focusing on forests is more tractable and likely provides a large share of the relevant land use change emissions, since forest conversion is relatively permanent in a way that livestock to cropland conversion is not. In general, the values are more speculative than the values and often rely on assumptions about the yield-price elasticity that have not been empirically confirmed.
Two possible methodologies for obtaining values are set out here. Method B is in most cases the preferred approach. This is because the necessary conditions to implement Method A (limited trade/ disconnected markets and demand driven quantity increase) are rarely met in practice. Method A should only be used in special cases and justified appropriately. Both methods are set out below:
- Method A: In cases where a large increase in deforestation has accompanied a large increase in cropland, the ratio of land deforested for agriculture to total new agriculture is taken. Note, this procedure is only accurate for cases where (1) the deforestation followed a large demand-driven increase in production and (2) where the land is not well-connected to international markets. This approach is not reflected in the default values, as it is not an acceptable methodology for the majority of crop-regions.
- Method B: In most cases, such as the US, analyses of large changes in land use due to a policy shock is relied upon, and then the ratio of the percentage change in agricultural land to the percentage change in production is taken. This way of calculating is represented in the following definition:
(Equation D1)
Where:
- is Gross New Production From Extensification due to .
- is Change in regional average yield due to .
- is Total land area under study.
- is a 1-tonne reduction in supply, or a 1-unit price increase.
is variable under the assumption that changes to supply are predominantly channeled through price changes17.
By dividing the numerator and denominator, the above equation can be reformulated as:
(Equation D2)
Where:
-
is the change in area due to .
-
is the change in yield due to .
-
is a 1-tonne reduction in supply, or a 1-unit price increase.
The following default values have been gathered using Method B.
Table D2. default values.
Livestock rows (in bold) apply to grazing projects; other commodity rows apply only where a distinct crop commodity is displaced.
Relevant Works
[^10] Gifford, R. M., & Roderick, M. L. (2003). Soil carbon stocks and bulk density: spatial or cumulative mass coordinates as a basis of expression? Global Change Biology, 9(11), 1507–1514.
Footnotes
-
FAO (2023) Global assessment of soil carbon in grasslands: From current stock estimates to sequestration potential. FAO Animal Production and Health Paper No. 187. Rome: FAO. Available at: https://doi.org/10.4060/cc3981en (Accessed: 24 April 2026). ↩ ↩2
-
Bai, Y. and Cotrufo, M.F. (2022). Grassland soil carbon sequestration: Current understanding, challenges, and solutions. Science, 377(6606), pp.603-608. ↩
-
Lai, L. and Kumar, S. (2020). A global meta-analysis of livestock grazing impacts on soil properties. PloS one, 15(8), p.e0236638. ↩
-
Jordon, M.W., Buffet, J.C., Dungait, J.A., Galdos, M.V., Garnett, T., Lee, M.R., Lynch, J., Röös, E., Searchinger, T.D., Smith, P. and Godfray, H.C.J. (2024). A restatement of the natural science evidence base concerning grassland management, grazing livestock and soil carbon storage. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 291(2015), p.20232669. ↩
-
Niu, M., Kebreab, E., Hristov, A.N., Oh, J., Arndt, C., Bannink, A., Bayat, A.R., Brito, A.F., Boland, T., Casper, D. and Crompton, L.A., (2018). Prediction of enteric methane production, yield, and intensity in dairy cattle using an intercontinental database. Global Change Biology, 24(8), pp.3368-3389. ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4
-
Chlela, S., & Selosse, S. (2025). The co-benefits of integrating carbon dioxide removal in the energy system: A review from the prism of natural climate solutions. Science of The Total Environment, 976, 179271. ↩ ↩
-
Curt, C., Di Maiolo, P., Schleyer-Lindenmann, A., Tricot, A., Arnaud, A., Curt, T., Parès, N., & Taillandier, F. (2022). Assessing the environmental and social co-benefits and disbenefits of natural risk management measures. Heliyon, 8(12), e12465. ↩ ↩
-
McGuire, R., Williams, P. N., Smith, P., McGrath, S. P., Curry, D., Donnison, I., Emmet, B., & Scollan, N. (2022). Potential co-benefits and trade-offs between improved soil management, climate change mitigation and agri-food productivity. Food and Energy Security, 11(2), e352. ↩ ↩
-
Milne, E., Banwart, S. A., Noellemeyer, E., Abson, D. J., Ballabio, C., Bampa, F., Bationo, A., Batjes, N. H., Bernoux, M., Bhattacharyya, T., Black, H., Buschiazzo, D. E., Cai, Z., Cerri, C. E., Cheng, K., Compagnone, C., Conant, R., Coutinho, H. L. C., de Brogniez, D., … Zheng, J. (2015). Soil carbon, multiple benefits. Environmental Development, 13, 33–38. ↩ ↩
-
Ellert, B. H., & Bettany, J. R. (1995). Calculation of organic matter and nutrients stored in soils under contrasting management regimes. Canadian Journal of Soil Science, 75(4), 529–538. ↩
-
Wendt, J. W., & Hauser, S. (2013). An equivalent soil mass procedure for monitoring soil organic carbon in multiple soil layers. European Journal of Soil Science, 64(1), 58–65. ↩ ↩2
-
Roberts, M. J., & Schlenker, W. (2013). Identifying supply and demand elasticities of agricultural commodities: Implications for the US ethanol mandate. American Economic Review, 103(6), 2265–2295. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.6.2265 ↩
-
Akiyama, T., & Varangis, P. N. (1990). The impact of the International Coffee Agreement on producing countries. The World Bank Economic Review, 4(2), 157–173. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/4.2.157 ↩
-
Askari, H., & Cummings, J. T. (1977). Agricultural supply response: A survey of the econometric evidence. Praeger Publishers. ↩
-
Fragoso, R., Marques, C., Lucas, M. R., Martins, M. B., & Jorge, R. (2011). The economic effects of Common Agricultural Policy on Mediterranean montado/dehesa ecosystem. Journal of Policy Modeling, 33(2), 311–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.12.007 ↩
-
Lawrence, J. D., Mintert, J., Anderson, J. D., & Anderson, D. P. (2008). Feed grains and livestock: Impacts on meat supplies and prices. Choices, 23(2), 11–15. ↩
-
UN-REDD: Definition of market leakage [Accessed October 2024]. Available at: https://www.un-redd.org/glossary/market-leakage#:~:text=Definition,actors%20to%20shift%20their%20activities ↩
-
Pendrill, F., Persson, U. M., Godar, J., & Kastner, T. (2019). Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5), 055003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d41 ↩
-
Lark, T. J., Hendricks, N. P., Smith, A., Pates, N., Spawn-Lee, S. A., Bougie, M., Booth, E. G., Kucharik, C. J., & Gibbs, H. K. (2022). Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(9). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2101084119 ↩
-
Bowman, M. S., Soares-Filho, B. S., Merry, F. D., Nepstad, D. C., Rodrigues, H., & Almeida, O. T. (2012). Persistence of cattle ranching in the Brazilian Amazon: A spatial analysis of the rationale for beef production. Land use policy, 29(3), 558-568. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.09.009. ↩
-
Wu, Z., Satter, L., & Sojo, R. (2000). Milk production, reproductive performance, and fecal excretion of phosphorus by dairy cows fed three amounts of phosphorus. Journal of Dairy Science, 83(5), 1028–1041. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.s0022-0302(00)74967-8 ↩
-
Coffee Barometer. In Coffee Barometer (pp. 1–36). https://hivos.org/assets/2018/06/Coffee-Barometer-2018.pdf ↩
Contributors



